This article is part of our FanDuel College Basketball series.
It wouldn't be March Madness without a fluke injury shaking up the outlook of the bracket just before the first game tips off. That's exactly what happened Thursday morning in the South region, as news surfaced that California's senior guard Tyrone Wallace suffered a broken hand in Wednesday's practice, ruling him out for the entire tournament. That severely damages Cal's chances of making it to the Sweet 16, but opens up some value opportunities in the rest of the backcourt in the first round.
In the first round of tournament games, checking out the over/under and point spread becomes more important than ever for daily contests. The last thing fantasy owners want is their high-priced superstar sitting out the last 10 minutes of a game because their team is winning by 40. To avoid this, try making a concentrated effort to target players in close games with high over/unders, or at the very least, teams with tight rotations. With that in mind, here are Friday's picks.
Included Games
Syracuse v. Dayton
Villanova v. UNC-Asheville
VCU v. Oregon State
Hawaii v. California
Middle Tennessee v. Michigan State
Temple v. Iowa
CSU Bakersfield v. Oklahoma
South Dakota State v. Maryland
Pittsburgh v. Wisconsin
Stephen F. Austin v. West Virginia
Green Bay v. Texas A&M
Weber State v. Xavier
Michigan v. Notre Dame
Northern Iowa v. Texas
Cincinnati v. St. Joseph's
Guards:
Troy Caupain, CIN v. SJH ($8,700): Caupain's price has shot up due to a 64.5 fantasy point performance in the Bearcats' 4OT loss to Connecticut, but he still has a strong chance to return value Friday in an up-tempo game against St. Joseph's. The junior guard has a 25-point floor with a 40-point ceiling, making him a safe play in cash games.
Zak Irvin, MICH v. ND ($6,700): Excluding the 16-seeds, no team in the tournament has a worse defensive efficiency rating than Notre Dame, per KenPom. Irvin's 23.5 percent shot rate is higher than any of the other Michigan starters, making him a nice alternative to a higher-priced options such as Derrick Walton Jr. ($7,400).
Stephen Thompson Jr., OSU v. VCU ($6,300): With fellow freshman Tres Tinkle (foot) likely out Friday, I like Thompson to continue his hot streak. Tinkle has missed four straight games, and over that stretch, Thompson has moved into the starting lineup and averaged 27.5 Fanduel points per contest. In a slightly up-tempo game for the Beavers, many will be tempted by the suppressed price of Gary Payton II ($9,400), but I prefer to save some salary and roll with Thompson.
Jordan Mathews, CAL v. HW ($5,700): With Tyrone Wallace (hand) ruled out Friday, there's plenty of room for value in the California backcourt. I'll start with Matthews, who will have the second highest shot rate on the team (without Wallace), per KenPom. Even with Wallace in the lineup, Mathews has still averaged 21.1 Fanduel points over his last five, making him safe for both cash games and tournaments.
Sam Singer, CAL v. HW ($4,500): Singer is the backup point guard to Wallace, and although coach Cuanzo Martin might distribute ball-handling duties by committee, Singer is the best candidate for an uptick in minutes. When Wallace missed five games earlier in the season, Singer averaged 30.2 minutes per game, more than 10 more than his season average of 19.6. Singer collected just 14.5 Fanduel points per contest over that stretch, but at minimum price, he's one of the best options in that tier to collect 20 fantasy points.
Other Guards: Gary Payton II, OSU v. VCU ($9,400); Roderick Bobbit, HW v. CAL ($8,000); Melo Trimble, MRLND v. SDKSU ($7,800); Derrick Walton Jr., MICH v. ND ($7,400); Alex Caruso, TEXAM v. UWGB ($6,500); JeQuan Lewis, VCU v. ORGST ($5,900); Jabari Bird, CAL v. HW ($5,800); Eron Harris, MCHST v. MTBR ($4,800)
Forwards:
Joe Bolomboy, WSW v. XAV ($8,300): There are plenty of higher-priced forwards in the slate, and although Denzel Valentine ($10,800) always merits consideration, I'm a bit wary due to the fact Michigan State is favored by 18 and he might get some rest towards the end. In his place, I'm going with Bolomboy, who has posted a safe 32.3 Fanduel points per game over his last five. The senior also has an up-tempo matchup going for him, as Xavier is the third fastest-paced team in the tournament, according to KenPom.
Dyshawn Pierre, DAY vs. SYRC ($7,500): Syracuse is the No. 227-ranked team in the nation in terms of term rebounding percentage (48.9), and have especially struggled in the last three games (44.6). Enter Pierre, the Flyers leading rebounder at 8.6 RPG. He's scored under 20 Fanduel points just one time since Jan. 12, giving him a high floor with an outside chance at 35-40 fantasy points.
Jalen Jones, TEXAM v. UWGB ($7,200): Jones is a solid all-around contributor for the Aggies, and a shot rate of 31.6 percent (per KenPom) is tough to ignore. He'll draw an up-tempo matchup against UW-GB -- the fastest-paced team in the tournament and sixth-fastest in the nation. Based on pace alone, the whole Texas A&M squad is in play here. Green Bay has been hitting their stride lately, and I think they have just enough in them to keep this game close.
Jamel Artis, PITT v. WIS ($6,600): Although Wisconsin plays at one of the nation's slowest paces, Artis' is price is just too low for a player with back-to-back 25-plus Fanduel point games that is capable of 35-40 point upside. Wisconsin's frontcourt doesn't have a ton of experience and is a bit undersized, and they've allowed a few big fantasy games to opposing big men this season. The matchup is still risky so ownership will be low, making Artis a decent tournament play.
V.J. Beachem, ND v. MICH ($5,300): Michigan has been shaky against the post lately, and unless they turn to 6-10 freshman Moritz Wagner like they did in Wednesday's play-in game, they don't have anyone in the regular rotation taller than 6-9. With most of the attention geared towards Zach Auguste ($8,900), Beachem should be able to sneak in some extra boards and baskets. A few shaky performances have brought his price down to $5,300, leaving plenty of room for profit.
Other Forwards: Denzel Valentine, MSU v. MTBR ($10,800); Zach Auguste, ND v. MICH ($8,900); Gary Clark, CIN v. SJH ($8,800); Jaylen Brown, CAL v. HW ($7,400); Ethan Happ, WIS v. PITT ($7,400); Trevon Blueitt, XAV v. WSW ($7,300); Tyler Davis, TEXAM v. UWGB ($6,600); Bonzie Colson, ND v. MICH ($6,400); Danuel House, TEXAM v. UWGB ($6,500); Mo-Alie Cox, VCU v. ORGST ($6,100); Duncan Robinson, MICH v. Notre Dame ($5,900); Darryl Reynolds VLLNV v. UNCA ($5,500)
