This article is part of our Final Four Preview series.
Just one year ago, Virginia made history for all the wrong reasons. The Hoos became the first No. 1 seed to ever lose a No. 16 seed. Fast-forward to 2019, and the tables have completely turned. Virginia survived a defensive struggle with Oregon in the Sweet 16, then won an instant classic in overtime versus Purdue after Mamadi Diakite sent the game to extra time at the buzzer. This is Virginia's first Final Four since 1984.
Meanwhile, Virginia will face a scorching Auburn squad making its first appearance ever in the Final Four. The Tigers have won 12-straight games heading into this clash, which includes the SEC Tournament Championship and the Midwest Region. Auburn dismantled college basketball royalty on the way to the Final Four, dispatching of Kansas, North Carolina and Kentucky in succession. Those three schools have combined for 52 Final Four appearances, but it's Auburn who took them all down and remains dancing.
Virginia Cavaliers, South Region No. 1 seed
Backcourt: The Cavaliers are extremely guard-heavy, led by the trio of De'Andre Hunter, Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome. Hunter was the ACC Defensive Player of the Year during the regular season, but also averages nearly 15 points per game as well. Guy is currently the leading scorer for the Cavs but had been cold for most of the tourney until the Elite Eight. He found his stroke against the Boilermakers, pouring in 25 points while also leading the team with 10 rebounds. Jerome is also a feisty
Just one year ago, Virginia made history for all the wrong reasons. The Hoos became the first No. 1 seed to ever lose a No. 16 seed. Fast-forward to 2019, and the tables have completely turned. Virginia survived a defensive struggle with Oregon in the Sweet 16, then won an instant classic in overtime versus Purdue after Mamadi Diakite sent the game to extra time at the buzzer. This is Virginia's first Final Four since 1984.
Meanwhile, Virginia will face a scorching Auburn squad making its first appearance ever in the Final Four. The Tigers have won 12-straight games heading into this clash, which includes the SEC Tournament Championship and the Midwest Region. Auburn dismantled college basketball royalty on the way to the Final Four, dispatching of Kansas, North Carolina and Kentucky in succession. Those three schools have combined for 52 Final Four appearances, but it's Auburn who took them all down and remains dancing.
Virginia Cavaliers, South Region No. 1 seed
Backcourt: The Cavaliers are extremely guard-heavy, led by the trio of De'Andre Hunter, Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome. Hunter was the ACC Defensive Player of the Year during the regular season, but also averages nearly 15 points per game as well. Guy is currently the leading scorer for the Cavs but had been cold for most of the tourney until the Elite Eight. He found his stroke against the Boilermakers, pouring in 25 points while also leading the team with 10 rebounds. Jerome is also a feisty defender but doubles as the catalyst for the Virginia offense, averaging 5.4 dimes per contest on the year. Freshman Kihei Clark rounds out the guards for the top defensive squad in the land, a 5-foot-9 gnat who also collected 11 assists between the Sweet 16 and the Elite Eight. Alabama transfer Braxton Key was the leading rebounder for Virginia during the year but has played only sparingly during March Madness.
Frontcourt: Even though Purdue's Carsen Edwards was named Most Outstanding Player in the South Region in a losing cause, sophomore forward Mamadi Diakite should have been a close second. If not for his stellar play, the Cavs would likely be watching the Final Four from their respective couches. One of only two bigs receiving legitimate playing time along with Jack Salt, Diakite has averaged 13.0 points, 9.0 rebounds and 2.3 blocks thus far in the Big Dance, almost double his season statistics. Add in the game-tying shot which sent the Purdue game into overtime, and perhaps no player has been more valuable to Virginia's success in the NCAA Tournament. The above-mentioned Salt played 34 minutes in the Elite Eight win against a towering Purdue unit, but had played just 10 total minutes in the tourney prior to that outing.
X-Factor: Diakite. It's hard to overstate just how significant the sophomore's impact has been for the Cavaliers. Diakite was more of a complementary player during an extremely successful regular season, but he was inserted into the starting lineup in the Round of 32 by ACC Coach of the Year Tony Bennett, and has been a dominant force on the interior. He's shooting almost 65 percent from the floor during the tourney, blocked four shots versus Purdue, and has managed to stay out of foul trouble. He has given the Cavaliers a unique element of athleticism on the inside to match up against talented bigs like Kenny Wooten of Oregon. Virginia was not a very good rebounding team during the regular season despite playing stifling defense; the Cavs have been better during the NCAA Tournament, and Diakite deserves a lot of the credit.
Who They Beat to Get Here:
Gardner-Webb, 71-56
Oklahoma, 63-61
Oregon, 53-49
Purdue, 80-75
They'll Win If: they can guard the three-point line. The Cavaliers were nearly done in by the hot shooting of Purdue's Carsen Edwards in the Elite Eight, who hit 10 three-pointers in the OT thriller. Nobody could stop Edwards this tourney, but the Hoos did a decent job guarding the three-point line in their other three matchups, and Auburn has been extremely effective from long range in this tournament. The Tigers are averaging 12 three-point makes per contest in this year's tournament. If Virginia can clamp down on the streaking Tigers from beyond the three-point arc, they will have an excellent chance of moving on to the Championship.
PREDICTION
Offense gets the fame, but defense wins the game. This year's version of the Cavaliers is older, wiser and more athletic with the improved play of the aforementioned Diakite. Virginia has the defensive chops to slow down the high-powered Auburn offense; the two squads are similarly situated with ultra-talented guards. The difference will be on the interior, where Diakite has had his way against bigger and more highly-touted competition. In what should be a close affair (don't all of Virginia's games seem to be nailbiters?), the Hoos come away victorious.
--Jesse Siegel
Auburn Tigers, Midwest Region No. 5 Seed
Backcourt: This is the heartbeat of the team. Jared Harper and Bryce Brown are why Auburn is in this spot. Brown, a shooting guard, is the leading scorer that makes 41.0 percent of his shots from behind the arc. After inconsistent play during the regular season, he's been vital in the tourney with 25 points against Kansas and 24 against Kentucky. Harper runs the show averaging 15.2 points and 5.9 assists per game. He dropped 26 points on Kentucky and had 11 dimes against UNC. Brown and Harper may compose one of the smaller backcourts in the country, but they are likely the quickest and that's also why the Tigers are first in the country in defensive turnover percentage. Of course, J'Von McCormick provides valuable minutes off the bench and while he isn't the same kind of shooter, he has the same kind of quickness.
Frontcourt: The loss of Chuma Okeke is monumental, but Auburn still made it past Kentucky with its mess of bigs. Anfernee McLemore and Danjel Purifoy both reached a season high in minutes played against the Wildcats, while Samir Doughty played 10 more than his average. Some of that had to do with others in foul trouble, so the mix of minutes could easily look a little different in the Final Four. While McLemore, Dunbar, Doughty and Purifoy can all stretch the floor, Spencer and Wiley are more useful on the block. Auburn will likely mix in a variety of lineups to see what works against the likes of Jack Salt and Mamadi Diakite. Either way, someone has to step up in the scoring department after none of the frontcourt players surpassed eight points (McLemore) against Kentucky.
X-Factor: This could probably go to seven different players because it's a team of x-factors outsides of Harper and Brown. Due to defense and scoring potential, it's a combination of Dunbar and Doughty, Auburn's two main players at the three spot. Dunbar battled foul trouble against Kentucky so Doughty stepped in and finished with a plus/minus of 20. Those two will be asked to guard everyone for Virginia, whether that's Ty Jerome at the point or Kyle Guy running around screens. Doughty was the main reason Kentucky struggled offensively in the second half of the Elite Eight game and his defense will be important against the second-most efficient offense in the country.
Who They Beat To Get Here:
New Mexico State 78-77
Kansas 89-75
North Carolina 97-80
Kentucky 77-71 (OT)
They'll win if: Harper and Brown go off… again. It would also help Auburn if it made at least 12 threes again, something it's done in eight of the past nine games (failed to do so against Kentucky). However, getting on fast breaks and hitting threes in transition is rarely a good strategy against Virginia because it doesn't turn it over and plays slow. That means Auburn's defense will probably be the reason it wins. It has to contain the shooters, but also limit easy looks from Diakite and De'Andre Hunter. Without Okeke, Auburn felt kind of lucky to win its last game because none of his replacements really stepped up offensively. That has to change if the Tigers want to win again.
PREDICTION
I've gone against Auburn too much in this tournament, but I think this run has to end at some point, especially without Okeke on the floor. Harper and Brown can only do so much, whereas Virginia doesn't have to feed one single guy like Kentucky did with PJ Washington. The combination of Kyle Guy, Ty Jerome, De'Andre Hunter and Mamadi Diakite will be too much against Auburn's guards that will struggle to get any good looks. Virginia 68-61
--Adam Zdroik
