Sweet 16 Preview: South Region

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South Region

SOUTH REGION SWEET 16

Site: Louisville, KY
Tip-off: Thursday

Despite upsets galore in this year's NCAA Tournament, the South region held nearly true to form entering the Sweet 16. The only upsets were Wichita State's opening-round win over Arizona, and Hawaii's victory over injury-riddled California. Miami struggled to shake off Buffalo but then took care of the Shockers in a defensive struggle. Meanwhile Maryland got the job done against the upstart Rainbow Warriors, after surviving a scare from South Dakota State in the dreaded 5-12 trap game.

The top two seeds also advanced with relative ease, as Villanova crushed both UNC-Asheville and Iowa in games that were over at halftime. The No. 1 seeded Kansas Jayhawks looked just as impressive, toppling hapless Austin Peay and then dismantling the UConn Huskies, ending any thoughts of another magical title run for Connecticut.

With the matchups in the South now set, let's take a deeper look at the upcoming games.

No. 5 Maryland vs. No. 1 Kansas

Key Matchup: Maryland's Melo Trimble vs. Kansas's Devonte' Graham. Trimble is the catalyst for the Terps, but Graham is a shutdown defender and plays big in big games. Graham got the better of Player of the Year frontrunner Buddy Hield on two occasions this season, and should certainly be up to the task against Trimble. Graham's offense has also come around over the last month or so, which has taken the Jayhawks to even greater heights. He tallied 27 points in a matchup with Hield in mid-February, while also scoring 27 points against West Virginia in the Big 12 Tournament Championship Game. Graham was named the MVP of the tourney.

Maryland will Win IF: the Terrapins can slow the game down and get to the free throw line. The Terps are at their best when they are attacking the basket, drawing fouls and getting to the charity stripe. In their first round win over South Dakota State, the Terps went to the foul line 27 times, connecting on 24 free throws. Maryland shot extremely poorly from the field against Hawaii in the second round, but hit 28-of-31 free throws in the 73-60 win. Kansas is efficient on offense, so the Terps will have to make up the difference from the free throw line if they want to pull off the victory.

Kansas will Win IF: the Jayhawks win the battle of the boards. Kansas dismantled UConn on the glass in the last game, outrebounding the Huskies by a count of 44-24. The Terps start a big front line with Diamond Stone (6-foot-11), Robert Carter (6-9) and Jake Layman (6-9). Damonte Dodd (6-11) comes off the bench. Even Rasheed Sulaimon and Melo Trimble rebound well at the guard positions. Kansas must match Maryland's size and strength on the glass. If the Jayhawks can hold their own on the glass, they have a great chance to come away with the victory.

Player to Watch: Maryland's Diamond Stone. The Terps are going to need a huge performance from Stone in this contest. Stone is a potential lottery pick in this June's NBA Draft should he decide to turn pro, and he is nimble for a big man with a deft touch around the basket. The Jayhawks really have just one player over 6-foot-9 who plays even decent minutes (Landen Lucas) and so if Stone can stay out of foul trouble, Diamond may be able to have his way with the Jayhawks on the interior.

Prediction: The Jayhawks are clicking on all cylinders right now. Kansas is so well balanced, with Perry Ellis providing the savvy veteran leadership on the interior, and the guard triumvirate of Graham, Mason and Selden setting the tone from the outside or slashing to the hoop. Unless Trimble or Stone have monster games, the Terps will have a hard time matching the Jayhawks. Maryland might even have more pure talent, but the Jayhawks are the better unit.

No. 3 Miami vs. No. 2 Villanova

Key Matchup: Miami's Angel Rodriguez vs. Villanova's Ryan Arcidiacono. This game should be dictated by guard play, with Arcidiacono running the point for Wildcats, and Rodriguez piloting the Canes. Rodriguez willed the Hurricanes into the Sweet 16 with a stellar 28-point performance against Wichita State, though he also turned the ball over seven times. Meanwhile, Arcidiacono is not a slasher like A-Rod, though he is a better shooter from the outside, hitting 37-percent of his treys. Both point guards average 4.4 assists per game, though there is more pressure for Rodriguez to perform than Arcidiacono, as the latter can share distribution duties with Josh Hart and Jalen Brunson.

Miami will Win IF: the Hurricanes can run the Wildcats off the three-point line. Villanova is not a big squad, so Miami should not have a repeat of their rebounding troubles from the game against Wichita State. However, the Wildcats have been deadly from three-point land through two games thus far in the Big Dance. Villanova connected on 13-of-28 (46.4 percent) of shots from long range against No. 15 UNC-Asheville, then followed that up by hitting 10-of-19 (52.6 percent) from beyond the arc against Iowa. Miami is athletic enough to keep up with Villanova's three-guard sets, but the Hurricanes will have to be disciplined and not leave open shooters.

Villanova will Win IF: the Wildcats force turnovers. Though Miami point guard Angel Rodriguez had 28 points against the Shockers, he also turned the ball over seven times on the game, and the Hurricanes have averaged 15 turnovers per tilt thus far in the tourney. Miami squeaked by against lesser-talented squads despite the miscues, but will be unable to do the same if they do not value possessions and protect the basketball. The Wildcats have forced 27 turnovers in the last two games.

Player to Watch: Miami's Sheldon McClellan. The athleticism of McClellan was on display in Saturday's win over the Shockers, as he put home an impressive alley-oop from Angel Rodriguez that put the Canes back on top for good midway through the second half. Before that time, it appeared that the wheels had come off for Miami, and that the Shockers had stolen all the momentum. However, McClellan threw down that lob, then hit a three-pointer off the dribble to give the Canes some breathing room. McClellan is a second-half player who can create his own. Though he can disappear at times, the Wildcats cannot match his athleticism and 1-on-1 ability.

Prediction: This appears to be a tough matchup for Miami on paper, as Villanova can match the guard play of the Hurricanes and also force turnovers. Miami has struggled taking care of the basketball of late. Still, Angel Rodriguez seemed to take the challenge personally against Wichita State's standout point guard Fred VanVleet, and Rodriguez severely outplayed his senior counterpart. The Hurricanes are going to need big performances from their other guards, most notably junior Davon Reed and sophomore Ja'Quan Newton. Miami has the athletic advantage, but the Wildcats are a more consistent, more complete basketball team.