To say that Week 3 was a down week is an understatement for our simulated bets. After a great Week 2, we dipped right down into break-even territory. Add in the rake, and we are barely making a profit. The season is still young, however, and there's plenty of time to rebound.
Week 3 Results: 30-41-1
Win Pct: 41.1%
Total Results through Week 3: 120-108-1
Win Pct: 52.6%
ROI(w/rake): 0.03%
I'm raring to turn things around this week! Here are all of my simulated bets for the week.
CHAR -3, UVA -3.5, LIB -6.5, UNLV +30.5, WISC -6, USU +9.5, BC +1.5, PITT -25.5, TCU -9.5, VAN +35, LSU -2.5, UT -9, VT -34.5, OHIO +14.5, PSU -31.5, MINN -31, TEM -26.5, CMCH -11.5, ARMY -7.5, MIA -35.5, CC -35, SJSU +2.5, TOL -4.5, EMU -6.5, NIU -24.5, WSU +15, TA&M -5, SDSU -23.5, CONN +30.5, CLEM -10, ILL +11, LOU-1.5, MICH -20.5, IOWA -23, MCSU -14.5, MEM -3, BAY +7, KU +16, AUB -27, ARST +14.5, ULL -14.5, BUFF -13.5, UCLA -4.5, CSU +27.5, TSU +22.5, FLA -19, UNT +11.5, OKST -5.5, NEB +5, HOU -19, UK -5, WVU +17, AKR +48.5, BAMA -45, UNC -13.5, ULM +24, HAW -17, AFA -4, IND -9, UAB +3.5, UNM -1.5, WASH -7.5, USF +23.5, USC -11, ASU -14, ORE -28.5, APP -7.5
Real Money Results, Week 3: 3-2
Win Pct.:60%
Total results through Week 3: 10-5
Win Pct: 66.6%
Here are my five real-money bets for Week 4:
UNDER 47.5 Clemson @ North Carolina State
This is pretty self-explanatory. Clemson will stop the Wolfpack's offense, and the Clemson offense will still have issues moving the ball. The end result is an incredibly low-scoring game. The Tigers have yet to hit an over this season, and I expect a similar result here.
LSU -2.5 @ Mississippi State
The Tigers seem to be on the right track and appear to be much better than advertised. The spread here is way too narrow, considering the potentially explosive potential of this offense.
PITTSBURGH -25.5 vs. UNH
I'm still going to stick with the Panthers, even though they burned me earlier in the season. This spread seems about right despite UNH's unbeaten record against lesser opponents.
CLEMSON -10 @ North Carolina State
Although I picked the under above, I do think that the Tigers will make the necessary adjustments to get their offense going. The Tigers have yet to give up an offensive touchdown, and although that trend may end on Saturday, the defense will prevail here and keep the Tigers in it. This bet goes against most of the public.
UPSET: BAYLOR +7 vs. Iowa State
Baylor currently has one of the toughest run defenses in the country, which spells bad news for Breece Hall. Brock Purdy showed some improvement last week but the Cyclones are a team that many overestimated coming into the 2021 season. This will be a premier defensive battle but the 3-0 Bears have the goods to keep Iowa State in check.
