College Football Championship Odds: Analyzing the CFP Championship Favorites

This article is part of our College Football Picks series.

College Football Odds & Futures: National Championship Favorites

The college football season is getting closer -- we're well under 100 days until Week 0 -- and it's a good time to take stock of the national championship odds while things are still relatively quiet.

Odds have been mostly stable since opening, with a few exceptions. Below is a table with the opening and current college football national championship odds.

College Football Championship Odds

*Odds via BetMGM

The CFP Favorites

We've got the usual suspects up at the top with reigning champion Ohio State leading the pack, followed closely behind by Texas, Georgia, Penn State and Oregon. We'll start with this tier and dig into whether we should be making these bets now with the current odds.

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Ohio State +500 to win the National Championship (DraftKings)

It's hard to argue against the Buckeyes opening as the favorites and sticking there through the summer. They were the best team on paper going into last year, and while it took them a while to prove it, there was no doubt by the end of the season that they were worthy champs. 

The Case For Ohio State

A program like Ohio State doesn't rebuild. It reloads. The losses to the NFL Draft can be brushed aside by rising in-house talent, along with some shrewd additions from the transfer portal to round out the roster. 

Per 247 Sports, the Buckeyes got some solid adds through the portal without being over-reliant on it. The Buckeye transfer portal class had 11 incoming players, highlighted by four-stars at tight end (Max Klare, Purdue), offensive tackle, edge, and running back. 

This, on top of year-over-year stacked recruiting classes, will put one of the most talented teams in the country on the field. All of this without even mentioning two of the best football players in the nation -- Jeremiah Smith and Caleb Downs -- being back in the mix. 

Adding on, the schedule has some tough matchups but isn't an overwhelming gauntlet overall. The biggest non-conference game of the season, Ohio State vs Texas, will be played in Columbus in Week 1, and I'd argue there's more pressure on Arch Manning and the 'Horns in that spot. A slip-up against Texas when the Buckeyes are breaking in a new quarterback won't be held against Ohio State come December. The Big 10 schedule isn't overly daunting; road games at Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan are tough on paper, but the Buckeyes will still be favored in each spot in all likelihood. 

I'd almost be more worried about Illinois than Michigan, but that rivalry has certainly taken a turn in one direction since 2021. 

Regardless, I don't see any more than two losses on the Buckeyes' schedule, and that will be more than enough to get into the CFP again. From there, they'll be as well-prepared as anybody to make another run at a title. 

The Case Against

Upon further review, maybe it will matter that the Buckeyes lost so much to the NFL. It's not so much about losing 13 starters but about who they lost and at what position. Just three starters return on defense-- that's a lot to replace. They also have to replace the most important position of them all: quarterback.

 Julian Sayin is supposed to be more talented than Will Howard, and I'm willing to buy that. However, Howard was seasoned and had the intangibles; it remains to be seen whether Sayin is the same type of gamer and leader. That sounds like a flimsy pretext to doubt a team of this caliber, but it's tricky to find obvious flaws and even trickier to build a scenario where this season goes totally off the rails.

The Verdict: Bet it

I recommended the Buckeyes at this time last year when their odds were worse! Betting the favorite always feels lame, but you're still getting 5/1 right now. Perhaps early in the season, you'll be able to jump on a friendlier number if they lose to Texas, but that's about it. 

The concerns I would normally have had about this team pretty much go out the window in the new playoff format. Ohio State can afford to have early-season growing pains as it breaks in a new offense under a new quarterback and OC. 

They can lose to Texas and Michigan and still get in pretty easily. Three losses would be how this falls apart, and I just don't see that happening. 

Keep up with all the college football futures markets over the summer and during the season to track the latest college football odds for your best bets. We have updated Heisman odds year-round as well. 

Texas +550 to Win the National Championship (DraftKings) 

It feels like we've been building towards this season forever. Or, at least since Texas inked Arch Manning. The Longhorns have had back-to-back great seasons that have ended in the semifinals. Expectations are such that anything short of a National Championship will be a disappointment in Austin.

The Case For Texas

It's pretty obvious, right? If Arch Manning really is as-advertised, then Texas should dominate this season. The top-end talent and depth on this roster are astounding. There are nine five-stars and enough four-stars to go two deep across the depth chart.

We'll get into who Texas lost and whether that matters in the next section, but the giant overarching question really does surround one player, and that's Arch. To be fair, these are insane and almost unfair expectations to be placed on a first-year starting college quarterback. This is his third year within the QB-friendly Steve Sarkisian system, though, and the little we've seen of him thus far has been promising. 

He completed 68% of his passes at a 10.4 YPA clip with nine touchdowns and two interceptions across 10 appearances last year. We only saw him get extended run against an SEC school once, when he completed 26 of 31 for 325 and two scores while adding another on the ground against Miss State. 

Put another way, there are signs that Arch is That Dude. But it still requires some projection, especially with Texas losing some studs like Matthew Golden, Isaiah Bond, Gunner Helm and Jaydon Blue to the draft. Not to mention four starters off the offensive line.

What will help, though, is CJ Baxter's return to the backfield after missing all of last year with a knee injury. And the defense will be nasty again. In fact, SP+ has UT as the top defense in the country going into the season. That's going to help not just Manning, but the entire team while it has to navigate a gauntlet of a schedule.

The Case Against

Just like the case for betting Texas, the case against them centers on the same question. What if Manning is a flop? Doubtful. I don't see that, personally. The more interesting (and realistic) question is: What happens if Arch is merely good? As in, a redux of Ewers. An arguably top 5 quarterback in the conference, but not a transcendent one. 

For the sake of debate, let's say that ends up being the result, with Arch settling in as "good not great". Do those losses on offense start to matter a little more? What if Baxter isn't back to his best self right away? And what about replacing the top three targets who combined for 55 percent of the opportunities in the passing game?

Surely the offensive line isn't going to be better, at least on paper. And definitely not early on, which is a problem because Texas has to start on the road in Columbus. And then the conference schedule isn't exactly a picnic. The SEC is keeping the same conference schedules as a year ago, just inverting them. 

That means the favorable home schedule from its first year in the SEC gets flipped. Now UT has to go to the Swamp and to Athens. 

The Verdict: Hold Off 

Does Texas have the goods to win the title? Absolutely. Am I betting it at +550? Absolutely not. 

Texas strikes me as a team that will be a force to be reckoned with come December. There's too much talent. But the lack of proven talent and the gauntlet of a schedule give me pause from placing a preseason future. We need to see how it all comes together, and currently, Texas is priced like a finished product.

I'd like to dive back in when a buying opportunity presents itself, possibly as soon as the day after the Ohio State game in Week 1 if Texas loses. 

Keep tabs on college football win totals now before the odds shift.

Georgia +700 to win the National Championship (DraftKings)

Georgia is in a unique spot right now. On the one hand, it's a program that still has arguably the best coach in the sport and is just a couple of years removed from back-to-back National Championships. On the other hand, it has fizzled out each of the last two seasons and now has to break in an almost entirely new starting lineup on both sides of the ball.

Georgia benefits from getting its toughest games at home this season after playing a road gauntlet with stops in Tuscaloosa, Austin and Oxford last fall. But still, there are a lot of question marks with this team. Let's discuss. 

The Case for Georgia

Georgia is a high-floor, high-ceiling team. We've seen Kirby Smart's recruiting prowess allow the team to reload after losing tons of key contributors to the draft and not miss a beat. 

There are some promising risers on this team, as well as some high-end transfers who project well. Nate Frazier was a revelation as a freshman and is joined by Illinois transfer, Josh McCray, to give Georgia some punch in the run game that it has been missing.

There's a whole lot of 'new' as far as the passing game components go. Zachariah Branch and Noah Thomas come in as transfers, joining Dillon Bell and 2024 transfer Colbie Young, who missed most of last season due to an off-field matter. 

The offensive line has some proving to do on the interior, but it has promising pieces. Center is a potential area for concern, though.

The defensive outlook comes down to whether you trust what Smart and Co. have built on that side of the ball over the years, because only three starters return. The new starters are all highly rated by the recruitniks, and most got some experience last season, but it's still a green unit overall.

Getting the toughest games at home will also help Georgia get the necessary battle testing while also likely being favored in those spots. 

I realize I've buried the lede, though. If you're going to bet Georgia to win it all at +700, you need to believe in the quarterback. Gunner Stockton is expected to be the guy. That can mean two things, depending on how you view it. You're either skeptical after the Notre Dame game -- which is fair -- or you can believe that a fourth-year junior with blue chip recruiting pedigree and an offseason to work as the QB1 will be able to operate the offense. Carson Beck had a similar setup going into his first year as the starter, for whatever that's worth.

The Case against Georgia

The offense never clicks. 

In today's college football landscape, you need to be able to score in bunches. Does the projected offensive loadout really look like it can do that against the best teams? The Carson Beck-led team last year ranked 62nd in points per game in conference play last year (27.3 PPG, just behind Texas' 27.4) and now it gets a huge question mark at quarterback and a group of wideouts that lacks starpower. 

The defense is good on paper, but the schedule's still tough enough that the offense, and namely Stockton, will need to rise above and win a game with their play. That may be too much to ask of this team against the Texases or Ohio States of the world.

The Verdict: Not Betting It

The more I think through the favorites, the more similarities I see between Texas and Georgia this year. Both have promising but unproven quarterbacks, great defenses, tough schedules, and new-look receiving corps. Texas has higher upside at quarterback, and that's baked into the odds differential between the two teams. That doesn't mean Georgia is the better bet because the odds are slightly more favorable.

I'm more concerned with Georgia's unknowns than I am with Texas'.

There are a lot of them, and at key spots. And the schedule is brutal even when you get beyond the marquee matchups. The early-season game at Tennessee is a big test. The Florida game will be tougher than it's been in years past. Auburn can be a house of horrors once in a while, too. 

There's not enough here for +700 to be a good bet. And if they start proving me wrong and rattle off wins against Alabama, Florida, and Texas, the odds will get short in a hurry. I don't see a buy-back spot with Georgia like I do with Texas. If UGA loses to Bama at the end of September, the odds will slip back, but a loss like that could portend a lost season overall for the Dawgs. 

Penn State to win the National Championship (+750)

Finally, a team with some continuity to write about. Penn State has seen its odds creep up to fourth this offseason, changing places with Oregon. This program has been knocking on the door for years. The talent is there, but the song remains the same: they can't win "the big one." Is this the year James Franklin and Co. flip that script?

The Case for Penn State

I said it right at the start. Continuity. And not just continuity, but continuity at really important spots.

Having a third-year starter at quarterback in Drew Allar is something that sets Penn State apart from other favorites. Some were disappointed by him not building on the 25:2 TD:INT ratio from 2023, but he significantly improved in other key facets. Allar's completion rate jumped from 59.9 to 66.5 and his YPA went from 6.8 to 8.4. 

Allar taking another step forward, along with having the best backfield tandem in the country (Nicholas Singleton & Kaytron Allen), gives Penn State plenty to work with. The whole offensive line is back, too, and it was already really good. 

The big question will be how the passing game looks without Tyler Warren. He was sensational last year and kept things afloat, but you could almost argue there were diminishing returns at a certain point. Penn State was over reliant on him, and if he wasn't popping off, the passing game was likely stuck in the mud.

The only significant losses on offense are among the pass catchers. That might not be the worst thing. Penn State's receivers couldn't do anything last year outside of Harrison Wallace, who had 720 of Penn State's 1,640 yards caught by wide receivers. That's 43 percent. Losing him stings, but getting a wholesale upgrade across the board will help. 

Trebor Pena was a stud at Syracuse last year who can eat up targets and move the chains. Devonte Ross makes the jump up from Troy but is coming off a dominant 2024 with 11 touchdowns and over 1,000 yards. And Kyron Hudson may have something more to give after four seasons at USC with little usage.

The defense loses some key players and returns just five starters, but the improvements on offense should help offset that. And it still rates as a fringe top 5 unit nationally. 

The schedule ranks in the middle of the pack among Big 10 teams at 27th nationally. The non-conference slate is a joke (Nevada, FIU, Villanova) plus they get some in-conference cake walks like Northwestern and Rutgers.

They will have to play Oregon, but it's at home and it'll be the Whiteout Game, which is a big advantage, especially with Oregon having to replace a ton and play this game so early in the season. We can expect Penn State to lose to Ohio State in Columbus, as is tradition, but that won't keep them out of the Playoff. 

The Case against Penn State

The ceiling remains the ceiling.

Penn State has no excuse not to make the Playoff. They almost certainly will. It's not about that, though. It's about getting over the hump and winning a title. At this point, with everything working in Penn State's favor relative to some of the other top contenders, this may be Penn State's best shot at it.

Doesn't that sound familiar, though? Wasn't that the case last year when Penn State had the best draw of any team in the CFP and still found a way to lose against Notre Dame? 

Essentially, I wouldn't blame anyone for using Penn State's history under Franklin against them when considering betting their national championship odds. There are years and years of instances where the Nittany Lions came up short in the biggest moments. It could certainly happen again. 

The Verdict: Bet It

I've been burned by Franklin's Penn State teams plenty over the years. Last year was a golden opportunity for them, as was 2022. And 2019. And 2017. Ultimately, though, I'm choosing to believe that this year will be different.

I think having this blend of components on offense -- experienced and talented QB, elite backfield and OL, intriguing weapons in the passing game -- makes it much more dangerous and dynamic than it was a year ago. The defense will be top-tier even if we aren't overly familiar with the faces on that side of the ball just yet. 

Realistically, Penn State will only be an underdog against Ohio State on the road in November. An 11-1 Penn State team playing for a shot at the Big Ten title will get them a high seed. They probably wouldn't have to play Ohio State again until the semis and ultimately, you do have to beat the man to be the man.

Penn State has the roster to win the title this year. The oddsmakers have already tipped their hand by moving them up pretty significantly. BetMGM hung a 9/1 at open that is now +750. Only Clemson (+2000 --> +1300) is a bigger mover among contenders. 

I only see Penn State's odds getting shorter throughout the year. I believe they will beat Oregon in late September, at which point we're probably looking at 5/1 or shorter. From there, they will cruise until the Ohio State game, and assuming they lose that one, the odds won't be better than the price we're getting right now.

I'll be jumping on Penn State at this number for the rest of the summer. 

Oregon to win the National Championship (+850 at DraftKings)

The Ducks are perennial contenders who are in a similar boat to the Penn States and Notre Dames of the world in that there's still the giant elephant in the room. Still no championship in the CFP era. 

Dan Lanning has done a terrific job of elevating Oregon's already strong profile in his three years there. Tough losses to Washington in 2023 negated what could have been a title run. Last season was great until it ran into the buzz saw that was Ohio State's true A-Game. Nobody was beating an Ohio State team playing at that level. 

Oregon has to turn the page and start fresh on both sides of the ball. Let's take a look at how things might shape up for the Ducks this year.

The Case for Oregon

Oregon has finally reached that "reload, not rebuild" status previously reserved for the Alabamas, Ohio States and Georgias of the world. Even though they're breaking in an almost entirely new starting 22, Lanning has stocked the cupboard to make this roster not only competitive but a true contender.

The schedule gods smiled on Oregon this year, which is a blessing when it's this inexperienced. They duck Michigan and Ohio State. A date with Penn State in Happy Valley is daunting, but a loss there in late September wouldn't be too damaging to their playoff chances provided they take care of business the rest of the way. 

If you can convince yourself that Dante Moore will live up to his five-star billing, and that the loaded recruiting classes from the last three years will start to bear fruit, then you have to feel alright about the Ducks at these odds.

The Case against Oregon

They simply lost too much from last year's team.

Oregon is in Ole Miss territory in terms of having to start over. And that's not a place you want to be. Oregon's center, Iapani Laloulu, is the only returning starter on offense. There are just three returning starters on defense.

I understand that talent and depth are the two most important variables to winning in today's college football environment, but when the experience variable is this extreme to the negative, the scales start to tip in that direction. 

You're asking Dante Moore to do a ton when he looked pretty overexposed a couple of years ago at UCLA. Evan Stewart potentially missing the season would mean Moore has next to nothing as far as experienced returning talent around him.

If the offense is a couple of notches worse, the defense will have to step up big time to offset that regression. Again, the talent is there on paper, but I'm not sure it manifests that way this season.

The Verdict: Not Betting It

I fear that it just never really comes together for Oregon this year, at least not until it's already too late. I'll have to change my tune if Oregon goes into Happy Valley on September 27 and beats Penn State.

Assuming a loss there, Oregon might also pick up losses at Iowa (Nov. 8) and Nov. 22 vs USC. Three losses obviously puts Oregon on the outside looking in. Two losses, which is possible, would get Oregon into the dance but I don't see them doing much damage from there. 

I'd need something like 12/1 to really start thinking about betting Oregon to win it all. And even then, I'd be getting better odds on Clemson and Notre Dame -- both of whom I feel better about this year.

Oregon is a rock-solid program, but there's too much working against them this year. I don't see a Florida State-level fall from grace, but I'm almost more interested in betting Oregon to miss the playoff than I am in betting them to win it all. The number (+200) is god awful right now though.