College Football Picks: CFB Week 10 Odds, Picks, Predictions and Best Bets

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Published on November 3, 2022

College Capper: College Football Week 10 Best Bets

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Chris' Picks

Last week started a tad rough, but closed with three wins to put me back in the winning column weekly. The Georgia/Florida spread was a winner when it opened last Sunday, a loser by kickoff, which I noted in the write-up. I could nitpick and claim a fourth win, but no, we're better than that.

Boston College, what on earth?! That's a bad football team to only score three points on Connecticut. And they are this week's version of not sliding too far from one side to the other here. Duke is coming off of a bye, destroyed Miami the week prior and is a very well-coached team. There's no reason for them to not beat the Eagles by 14+ points.

I don't think this column gets enough run to include most Thursday-night action, but I do like Coastal Carolina getting points at home against Appalachian State.

Florida (+3.5) at Texas A&M

At some point, I expect the Aggies to give us a spirited effort and surprise. I feel the same for Auburn, and their spot honestly could be this week at Mississippi State. And the Aggies do look more competent offensively with Conner Weigman under center. But a noon kick doesn't inspire confidence with regards to atmosphere for a team that's lost four straight, and their run defense has been simply awful, ranking 121st nationally by allowing 205.9 ypg. That's all Florida wants to do, averaging 5.9 ypc, and all they will do, limiting the Aggies' offensive chances. Be sure to line shop and make sure you get the extra half a point!

North Carolina (-7) at Virginia

Virginia ranks 123rd in scoring offense, putting up 16.9 points per game. They haven't topped 20 points against an FBS opponent. North Carolina averages 41.8 ppg, being held under 32 points just once. Sometimes, it really is that simple. UNC dealing with some severe injuries to several starters, and Virginia has been consistently unlucky. But at the end of the day, UNC QB Drake Maye will step on the gas, and the Cavaliers can't keep up.

Marshall (-2.5) at Old Dominion

It may seem crazy, but this is my favorite play of the day. So obviously pound ODU, ha! I had Marshall pegged correctly last week, and sometimes, we just have a beat on teams weekly. Neither of these teams have trustworthy offenses, but Marshall's defense seems elite for a non power team. The Herd are 15th in points allowed (17.5 ppg), sixth against the run (2.7 ypc, 87.1 ypg) and 30th against the pass (6.4 ypa, 9:12 TD:INT, 195.6 ypg). The Monarchs aren't going to find any success offensively. Meanwhile, Marshall RB Khalan Laborn is heading back to his Virginia Beach home. He's averaging 5.2 ypc and has 13 rushing scores to date, and ODU ranks 106th against the run.

Clemson (-3.5) at Notre Dame

You stop the Irish on the ground, you win the game. It's that simple. The Irish have won five of six, somewhat quietly given their upset losses. In those five wins, they've averaged 227.4 ypg and 4.7 ypc. In the loss, to Stanford's 120th-ranked rush defense, they got only 150 yards on the ground. Clemson meanwhile is allowing 2.98 ypc and 87.9 ypg on the ground. They have been vulnerable over their last two outings, so maybe those struggles, paired with the night game home crowd keep Notre Dame competitive for a bit. But it's just a bad matchup that Clemson should shut down across 60 minutes.

LSU (+14) vs. Alabama

This line has danced all over the place, going as high as 16.5 and then suddenly plummeting to 12.5 before starting to inch back up. I want to be clear, I'm not touching the Tigers at anything less than two touchdowns, and if that requires less juice on an alt line, so be it. Alabama coming off a bye should be a risky betting proposition, but LSU is also well-rested and QB Jayden Daniels is really growing. He can pair with Kayshon Boutte for big plays, and his legs will extend drives. The over/under is currently telling us the books expect 35-21. That honestly seems low, but I'll back the home underdog at night more than the over.

Last week: 3-2; Season 28-22

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GREG'S PICKS

The winning streak came to an end this past week, but after losing my first three games of the weekend, it could have been worse than a ho-hum 2-3 result. Not a lot to say overall, I wasn't fond of the card as a whole and generally, it's tough to have a good week when a lot of games aren't popping.

As for what happened this past week, let's start with the losses. Ohio State was briefly ahead of the number late in the game, but the Buckeyes had no business covering that number anyway, so when PSU scored to get the cover, I wasn't all that surprised. The other two losses were never close as both Syracuse and Iowa State fell flat on their home turf. The wins were fairly easy as both Illinois and Oregon handled their business on the road.

The card looks a little better this week, so hopefully, we'll get back on the winning side.

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Wisconsin (-4.5) vs Maryland

This hasn't been a typical season for the Badgers as they struggled out of the gate and subsequently fired their head coach, but it looks like they are getting back on track. Their most recent game was a very impressive win over Purdue, a game in which they were in control the entire way. Maryland enters with a 6-2 record, but the Terps haven't exactly cruised to that record. Look for the Badgers to use a newly found balanced attack on offense to get enough clearance here to cover a fairly small number.

Over (69.5) TCU vs Texas Tech

Two of the highest-scoring teams in the country face each other in what should be a shootout. TCU is undefeated this season, but that's no thanks to its defense. Texas Tech doesn't have the record that TCU has, but its team is built much the same in that the Red Raiders' goal is to outscore you, defense be damned. To highlight the defensive struggles here, both of these teams are surrendering nearly 30 points per game. Offensively, TCU averages 44 ppg and Texas Tech comes in at 34 ppg. The only way this game goes under is if TCU somehow figures out its defense, but Texas Tech surely isn't stopping TCU on Saturday.

Over (61.5) Oklahoma vs Baylor

Oklahoma actually resembled a complete team this past week against Iowa State, but when you look at the 13 points surrendered, you have to take into account just how bad Iowa State is on offense. That's not the case this week as Baylor brings in a very balanced attack, one that should shred Oklahoma's defense. The Sooners didn't look great on offense this past week, but again, ISU's success is built on its defense, so it's no surprise that Oklahoma struggled a bit. I'm expecting things to get back to normal on Saturday and for this game to get crazy from the start. Baylor will be able to do what it wants on offense and Oklahoma should have little problem scoring points as well.

Illinois (-16.5) vs Michigan State

Who would have thought that Illinois would become a covering machine? This isn't some underdog story either, Illinois is covering consistently as a favorite and the reason is twofold – a running game and a defense. It's a great recipe for covering large numbers as once you get on top of the number, it's rarely relinquished because the running game kills the clock and defense takes care of the rest. This number is awfully large, but it's factoring in the current state of the Spartans, which got exponentially worse this past weekend when several of their players were caught on camera beating down a single Michigan player. Illinois will continue its business-like march through the Big 10 this week while Michigan State falls further into the abyss.

Georgia (-8.5) vs Tennessee

Tennessee has passed every test this season and the Vols deserve all the accolades they've received to this point. I personally love this team, more specifically, I love the offense, but the defense could be a problem this week. The number that sticks out is 300 yards per game allowed through the air. That is just not going to work this week. Georgia can beat you on the ground and through the air and I just don't see how this Tennessee defense is going to stop Georgia. Now, can Tennessee keep up? If any team can, it's Tennessee, but the problem here is, the Vols haven't seen a defense like Georgia's all season. I get the feeling the this is going to be a wake-up call for Tennessee. Yeah, they beat Alabama, but Georgia is on another level, at least its defense is on another level.

Last Week: 2-3-0, Season: 25-23-0

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