College Football Picks: Picking Winners Week 8

CHRIS' PICKS

Another winning week for yours truly last Saturday, but not without a little stress with Mississippi State's one-point cover being the difference. I'm still to the good this season, and arguably would be better if I didn't flirt with totals (0-2) and my own team (Miami, 0-2). And to that point, I think the Hurricanes at –16.5 is way too high.

This week feels a bit different. My prewriting usually yields some eight games on initial gut feel that I try to trim to five. I ended up with 14 this week, and that was being conservative. Fingers crossed I picked the right games to spotlight, and in the interest of full disclosure, these didn't make the cut:

Boston College +7 at Virginia, Wake Forest +7 at Georgia Tech, LSU –7.5 at Ole Miss, ECU +6 vs. BYU, Virginia Tech –21 vs. North Carolina, Utah –9.5 vs. Arizona State, Minnesota –13.5 vs. Illinois and Army -7 vs. Temple.

No ACC games for me, and we're Big Ten and Pac-12 heavy. Not sure that's a good thing, but here goes.

Purdue –9 at Rutgers

The Boilermakers are 3-3, with losses to Louisville, Michigan and Wisconsin by a total of 33 points. Their opponent this week is nowhere near the class of those opponents, having lost to Eastern Michigan and averaging a score of 30.6-19.8 in losses to five FBS teams, including last week's road win at Illinois. All three of the Boilermakers' wins have been by at least 14 points, and so long as they can establish a rushing attack against Rutgers' 75th-ranked rush defense, they should cruise.

Iowa –1.5 at Northwestern

I'm going a bit against what the stats say, as Northwestern has been sound against the run, holding three opponents to less than 100 yards, while Iowa has been bottled up on the ground for only 101 combined rushing yards in its two losses. But I am still having a hard time getting the Wildcats' Week 2 41-17 loss at Duke out of my head. Duke just isn't that good of a football team, which tells me Northwestern isn't either. As such, I'll trust the Hawkeyes coming off a bye in what is virtually a pick 'em.

UCLA –6.5 vs. Oregon

Oregon has scored 17 points in its last two games without quarterback Justin Herbert. If we average that out, you have to like UCLA's chances of scoring 17 points, which mathematically results in a cover. I'm gravely worried about the Bruins' run defense, which ranks second-to-last nationally, allowing 313 yards per game. But I have no faith in the Ducks' quarterback situation being good enough to challenge. Oregon hasn't been great away from home even with Herbert, losing in conference to Arizona State before last week's blowout at Stanford.

Oklahoma –14 at Kansas State

Kansas State's new starting quarterback, Alex Delton, went only 11 of 29 for 146 yards in his first start last week against TCU. As such, I don't think the Wildcats can exploit Oklahoma's secondary that's allowed 373.3 yards per game through the air in three Big 12 contests. Kansas State hasn't been much better, allowing 322.7 passing yards in conference, seemingly setting Baker Mayfield up for a big day and a comfortable win.

USC +3.5 at Notre Dame

The half a point really swayed me, as I like the Irish at home in a close game, but I think they are a team we still don't know much about. They can run the ball behind a dominant offensive line, but questions remain about their passing attack, and they aren't exactly battle tested, having lost their only game against a ranked opponent (though their victory over Michigan State looks better by the week.) The Trojans have faced a much more consistently difficult schedule, and with neither team having a particularly great pass defense, I'll side with the points and the better quarterback in Sam Darnold.

Washington State –10 vs. Colorado

This line feels severely lowered due to Wazzou's embarrassing showing last week, because otherwise I'd likely argue it should be double the 10-point number. Colorado allowed 289 yards passing to Oregon State and 372 to UCLA in its two road conference games. This just looks like a game in which Mike Leach airs it out, rights last week's wrongs and take no prisoners.

Last week: 3-2; Season: 21-17-1

GREG'S PICKS

There are bad beats and there are games that you shouldn't lose. While the Michigan State game last week probably isn't considered a bad beat, because there wasn't a crazy play that ruined its chances of covering, it was certainly a game the Spartans should have covered. I bring it up because I was on the brink of finally breaking my 3-2 or 2-3 curse, sitting at 3-1 with only MSU remaining. The Spartans completely controlled the game and held the Gophers at arm's length for almost the entire game … and then Minnesota found an offense. The Gophers scored 21 points in the final quarter and slipped just inside the number. I should also mention that MSU missed a FG just prior to Minnesota's final TD, which would have made the Gophers' TD irrelevant. Call it what you want, it was not a game that I should have lost. With any luck, those games will balance out throughout the season. 



Penn State -9.5 vs. Michigan



I'm not crazy about this pick as it just feels wrong to give this many points to Michigan, but I have a feeling that Penn State is about to put up a special effort on Saturday night and potentially turn this into a blowout. I say that realizing the Wolverines aren't likely to play as poorly as they did last week at Indiana. If they do that, then there's no doubt they'll get blown out. Penn State has looked both good and bad this season, but the Nittany Lions have yet to look like the team that battled USC in the Rose Bowl last season. This is the spot where that changes, though, as Penn State finds that extra gear against a vulnerable Wolverines squad that's been a thorn in its side the last couple seasons.


TCU -38.5 vs. Kansas



Kansas has really struggled within the conference this season, losing by 38 points per game. While that really isn't a surprise, the Jayhawks' 45-0 loss last week at Iowa State was a bit shocking. Iowa State was coming off a huge road win at Oklahoma and was ripe for a letdown, but Kansas never put any pressure on the Cyclones, and before you knew it, it was another blowout loss. TCU has found itself in some tight games the last few weeks, but that has everything to do with its competition. Now that the opposing team offers little in the way of defense, or offense for that matter, I expect the Horned Frogs to let loose and finally destroy someone.



Minnesota -13.5 vs. Illinois

Although I lost the Minnesota game last week, I still think I picked it right, and, therefore, I still feel good about picking a side in this game. The Gophers played poorly for most of their game last week, but they found something late, and it wasn't just that they were going against a prevent defense. What they found was a QB who should have been in there a lot sooner. Illinois is unquestionably the worst team in the Big Ten after losing at home to Rutgers, and it's not going to get any easier for the Illini this week as they visit a hungry Gophers team. The Gophers don't have many winnable games left this season and if they hope to become bowl eligible, they need to win this game.

UCLA -6.5 vs. Oregon



It seems like a long time ago that Josh Rosen led his team on a monumental comeback against the Texas A&M Aggies. That's because the UCLA Bruins haven't resembled that team too often the last month and a half. UCLA's biggest problem is its defense, but even its offense hasn't fired on all cylinders lately. That said, there's a good chance to get everything back on track this week as Oregon comes to town. I wouldn't have written that phrase three weeks ago, as Oregon was playing at a high level, but since the loss of its starting QB, everything has changed. Oregon scored just 17 points in two games without Justin Herbert, and while the Ducks get a crack at a lousy defense this week, I'm not sure they can take advantage.

Washington State -10 vs Colorado

Washington State could not have played worse last week against California and this week will be a classic bounce-back scenario against a weak Colorado team. I was all over the Bears last week as they faced what I thought was an overrated WSU team, and while I didn't expect a beat down, I did expect the Cougars to struggle. Just as I thought they'd struggle last week, conversely, I think this spot works well for them. The Buffalos are a not the team they were last year as evidence by the 38 points per game they allow in conference. WSU gets its offense back on track and covers with ease.


Last Week: 3-2; Season: 19-17