College Football Best Bets: Miami vs Florida
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We have reached the point in the season that inevitably happens. Namely: Can we really trust the Miami Hurricanes? Once upon a time, that was an easy thing to do, but those were the good ol' days for The U. The days before you couldn't really be sure just what Mario Cristobal might do to mess things up from a game strategy standpoint. Fortunately, on the flipside of this Sunshine State rivalry is something that remains quite easy to do: Not believe in the Florida Gators post-Urban Meyer (and especially under Billy Napier).
Miami vs Florida Betting Odds
Spread: Miami -7.5 (BetMGM); Florida +7.5 (Hard Rock Bet)
Total: Over 50.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook), Under 51.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Miami -295 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Florida +250 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
The oddsmakers have decided that for the Hurricanes to cover the spread, they need to win by over a touchdown. That's easy enough for people to conceptualize, but is that what is going to happen? Miami simply needs to handle Florida to do that. It doesn't even have to win authoritatively. Again, though, I ask, "Is that what is going to happen?"
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Miami vs Florida Betting Picks
You can start with the fact that Miami is 3-0 and Florida is 1-2, with only a win over Long Island University to its name. Conveniently, both teams have faced South Florida. The Bulls beat Boise State with gusto, but it's when they upset the Gators 18-16 that the buzz began to grow. Then, in Week 3, the Canes went out there and smashed South Florida 49-12. That along is a strong point in Miami's favor, especially at home.
The Hurricanes are up to 10th in SP+ - first in offense – while the Gators are down to 30th. However, that's not necessarily a collapse from Florida in terms of underlying numbers (and whatever percentage of the formula for 2025's SP+ remains past performance and offseason logistics). Even if you consider both head coaches liabilities (as I do), we can just look at the most important position on the field. Carson Beck has started the season well, and he's now the Heisman favorite as per BetMGM. DJ Lagway threw five picks against LSU.
Last week, I felt really good about Old Dominion because the vibes were so bad at Virginia Tech, and I felt like Brent Pry was on the verge of being fired. That proved astute. I don't think Florida's performance in Week 4 will yield a Napier firing…but it's not out of the question. The Hurricanes are a better team, and they are at home. I'm trying to parse if I'm missing something, but assuming I'm not, it's an easy call for me.
Miami vs Florida Best Bet: Miami -7.5 (BetMGM)
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Miami vs. Florida Betting Predictions
If the Gators have any chance, it's because the defense isn't bad. The loss to South Florida was 18-16, after all, and they only lost 20-10 to LSU despite the five interceptions from Lagway. Miami is the best offense Florida has faced, though, and it is hard for me to think Beck and company will be held under 24 points as the floor for its scoring. Even if that was the case, Florida would have to get to 17 points to cover the spread, a number it has yet to get to against an FBS team. I think the Hurricanes won't breeze by the Gators, but won't have to sweat this one too much from a score line standpoint.
