This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Ole Miss vs. Penn State Best Bets
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The Peach Bowl brings us the first-ever matchup between Ole Miss and Penn State. Both Ole Miss and Penn State had very good seasons, finishing at 10-2 but falling just short of their conference championships. Ole Miss's two losses came to the top two teams in the SEC, Alabama and Georgia. At the same time, Penn State's two losses came to the top two teams in the Big Ten, Michigan and Ohio State. Unlike many of these bowl games, neither Ole Miss nor Penn State is significantly affected by transfers or opt-outs; the only major loss for either team here is the departure of Penn State defensive coordinator Manny Diaz, who leaves to take over as head coach at Duke.
Ole Miss vs. Penn State Betting Odds for the Peach Bowl
Spread: Ole Miss +5 (PointsBet); Penn State -4.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Ole Miss +170 (PointsBet); Penn State -190 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 48.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Under 48.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Ole Miss vs. Penn State Betting Picks for the Peach Bowl
This spread opened at Ole Miss +3.5 on most major books and has since moved up to anywhere between +4.5 and +5. The moneyline has moved accordingly as it opened at Ole Miss +140/Penn State -170 and now has bumped to +170/-190. The total, on the other hand, has not changed as it opened and remains at 48.5.
Ole Miss vs. Penn State Expert Pick: Over 48.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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The Penn State defense has been one of the best in the country this year, as they sit at first in total defense, third in points per game, and from an Expected Points Added (EPA), they sit third in the nation in defensive EPA(via CFB-Graphs). The Ole Miss offense has also been very good this season, as they sit at 15th in the nation in total offense and 18th in points per game. From an EPA perspective, they are not quite as good as the raw numbers show, as they sit at 33rd in the nation in offensive EPA (via CFB-Graphs). Penn State has also been good offensively this year as they sit at 12th in points per game; however, they are tied for 61st in total offense and, from an EPA perspective, come in at 22nd (via CFB-Graphs). The weakest of all groups, undoubtedly, is the Ole Miss defense, which sits at 59th in total defense, 34th in points per game, and 52nd in defensive EPA (via CFB-Graphs).
Ole Miss vs. Penn State Predictions for the Peach Bowl
Outside of the numbers here, there are two keys that will likely have an effect on this game, both of which come down to coaching. For Ole Miss one thing that plays in their favor is they have one of the best offensive minds in the football world as their head coach. There are not many people out there who can scheme and game plan quite like Lane Kiffin; with a month to prepare, Kiffin will definitely have a few tricks up his sleeve to keep this Penn State team off balance and to hit a few homerun balls at opportune moments. The other major key here is the loss of Manny Diaz; while the Nittany Lions are loaded with talent on the defensive end, Manny Diaz has been a savant when it comes to dialing up pressures at the right time and having his guys in the right places. While I think the Penn State defense will still have a strong game, they may not play to quite their usual level. While looking at the numbers here as well, Ole Miss has not done a very good job at stopping some of the better offenses that they have faced; one of the similar cases for Penn State when playing a defense similar to that of Ole Miss in Maryland who ranks 58th in defensive EPA, they scored 51 points. Penn State has shown the ability to put up points on some of the closer-to-average defenses in college football, and Ole Miss has a very balanced and talented offense with Jaxson Dart, Quinshon Judkins, and a trio of receivers in Tre Harris, Dayton Wade, and Jordan Watkins. I think this game has the formula for an over despite the great season that Penn State has had on the defensive side of the ball. With the ability Penn State has to score on offense going against a less-than-stellar defense and the talent of Ole Miss's offense with a month for Lane Kiffin to prepare, I see a few quick scores in play here that push this game total over.
