Start vs. Sit: Who to Play, Who to Bench Week 1

START

AAC

Blake Barnett, QB, South Florida (vs. Elon)

It's officially official, Barnett is South Florida's new starting quarterback and he gets to debut against Elon. Even if Barnett never fulfills the potential he came to college with as the five-star Alabama commit, he's still talented enough to be starting for a strong Group of Five program, and there's little reason to think Elon can slow him and Bulls. Concerns about USF needing to play Barnett all four quarters are reasonable, but he'll put up enough numbers while he's out there to be worth a spot in your lineup this week.

ACC

Bryce Perkins, QB, Virginia (vs. Richmond)

Perkins is one of my favorite newcomers to the fantasy scene this season, and I'm jumping at the first opportunity I get to write about him in this space. It partially speaks to Virginia's lack of depth at the position that Perkins was able to enroll in January and open spring as the starter, but it also speaks to the speed with which he picked up the system and showed he was ready to command the Cavaliers' offense. He's a dual-threat quarterback who spent last year ripping it up at junior college and should be able to post some of the best numbers of any ACC quarterback this week against a soft matchup.

BIG 12

Sam Ehlinger, QB, Texas (vs. Maryland)

Most of the Big 12 is taking this week off from a competition standpoint (OK, you could say that about most conferences), so I'll take on a team that's punching in its weight class. It feels like the "Texas is back" narrative surfaces every year only to fizzle out by mid-September. I'm drinking the burnt orange Kool-Aid, though, and Ehlinger is a big reason why. Yes, he's on the road Saturday against an experienced Maryland defense, but who knows which Terrapin team will show up with all the distractions surrounding the program – including the fact that D.J. Durkin won't be coaching. Ehlinger has the skill-set to run Tom Herman's offense, most notably his sneaky-good mobility and decent enough arm. He also has a loaded skill group around him, highlighted by Collin Johnson and Devin Duvernay. Start him up, even with a tougher matchup than most of the rest of the Big 12.

BIG TEN

Rodney Smith, RB, Minnesota (vs. New Mexico State)

There's an opportunity to use 2018 data for this blurb and you know what? I'm going to take it. Wyoming's Nico Evans had a combined 36 carries for 108 yards over three years entering last Saturday's opener against New Mexico State. He then took 25 carries for 204 yards and two touchdowns against the Aggies. Now, if a guy with a career 3.0 YPC average against Mountain West competition can do that against New Mexico State, what is Smith going to do? Smith is the clear-cut workhorse for a Minnesota offense that ran it 67.4 percent (!) of the time last year. Think that changes with the Gophers starting a walk-on at quarterback? Uh, no. Smith is an elite option this week in any format.

Bonus pick: If you're feeling bold, Shea Patterson is an interesting play this week as the matchup at Notre Dame will certainly drive down his ownership percentage in daily formats.

CONFERENCE USA

Ty Lee, WR, Middle Tennessee (at Vanderbilt)

Vanderbilt isn't the creme de la creme of the SEC. Still, the 'Dores have the best secondary MTSU will see this year outside of Georgia's, so this is still a relatively tough matchup. Lee, however, is essentially matchup proof. His target volume projects to be one of the highest of anyone in college football this season, and he's efficient with his targets, too (955 yards on 129 targets in 2017). Lee also doesn't have to worry about Richie James vulturing targets. This is Lee's receiving corps, so even with a tough matchup on paper, he's skilled enough with a high enough target floor to be a top-20 receiver in Week 1.

MAC

Jamauri Bogan, RB, Western Michigan (vs. Syracuse)

The Broncos are punching up against a former MAC foe with Dino Babers (of Bowling Green lore) bringing the Orange to Kalamazoo. For as good as Syracuse's offense can be, its defense is bad enough to where the Orange are only 5-point favorites against a MAC team. There's also a high implied total of 65, so there will be scoring on both sides of this one. Bogan, who has 27 rushing touchdowns in 33 career games, will start for the Broncos, and in a soft matchup, the mix of volume and efficiency makes him someone to slot into lineups this week.

MOUNTAIN WEST

Juwan Washington, San Diego State (at Stanford)

This is arguably the most intriguing matchup for any Mountain West team this week, and it features one of the best fantasy conundrums. Do you start Washington, the Next Big Thing out of San Diego State, against Stanford's disciplined and perennially stout defense? Well, you can tell what I think on the matter given that this is under the "Start" section. Washington isn't as big or as good as Rashaad Penny, who torched Stanford for 175 yards last season. Still, he's a big-play threat in a run-first offense playing behind an experienced line. Washington won't go full Penny on Stanford, but as a guy you likely spent a top-20 pick on, you don't have to worry about leaving him on your bench right off the bat. Preston Williams is also a strong play this week, even though Colorado State is taking on Colorado.

PAC-12

JT Daniels, QB, USC (vs. UNLV)

We've had a sense that Daniels had a very good shot at winning the starting job since Signing Day in February, and the kid just went out and did the dang thing, becoming the first true freshman QB to start at USC since Matt Barkley. Even if you're worried about some hiccups along the way, they won't come against UNLV's defense that ranked 114th in defensive S&P+ last season. Look for a gangbusters debut along the lines of what we saw from Josh Rosen in 2015, or even Jameis Winston in 2013 (yes, he was a redshirt freshman.) Looking elsewhere in the Pac-12, I also wouldn't be shy about starting Washington's Myles Gaskin against Auburn, even in a tough matchup.

SEC

Keytaon Thompson, QB, Mississippi State (vs. Stephen F. Austin)

This is my bingo free space of the week. If you scooped up Thompson, who is making the spot start in place of the suspended Nick Fitzgerald, you know what to do. Thompson showed what he could do last season with a dazzling bowl performance highlighted by 274 total yards and three rushing scores. Expect similarly gaudy numbers this week, with the possibility of even better passing efficiency with new coach Joe Moorhead's system in place. He's easily a top-20 quarterback play.

SUN BELT

Jalin Moore, RB, Appalachian State (at Penn State)

There's a caveat before I jump into the analysis here. Moore is a flex play for me this week and possibly a contrarian DFS pivot. Penn State is ferocious up front, and coach James Franklin's recruiting has restocked the defensive depth to where the Nittany Lions are a title contender. Moore is just a talented enough back to where he won't be shut down for a full 60 minutes. The workload will be there as Appalachian State looks to take the pressure off first-time starter Zac Thomas. It might not be Moore's most efficient game of the season, but he won't be a total dud, either.

SIT

AAC

Hergy Mayala, WR, Connecticut (vs. UCF)

Mayala has some PPR appeal as the only Connecticut pass catcher to top 40 receptions last season. It's also fair to argue that Connecticut will need to stick to the passing game Thursday with the spread suggesting that Central Florida is going to open up a big lead. Still, volume doesn't always equal results, and UCF's defense could cause enough havoc in UConn's backfield to where all of the targets coming Mayala's way will be under duress. Certainly Mayala and company will get up for the vaunted Civil Conflict trophy, but it might not be enough this time around.

ACC

Travis Homer, RB, Miami ( vs. LSU at Arlington, Texas)

Let me preface this by saying I love the talent Homer possesses; he's an explosive back who averaged 5.9 yards per carry with a workhorse workload last season and even with five-star freshman Lorenzo Lingard in the fold, Homer's still the guy in Miami. I also have plenty of concern about his Week 1 opponent this season. Those concerns don't lie on the defensive side of the ball, unfortunately. Dave Aranda's defense has legit NFL talent at every level, which is going to be an issue for Miami on Sunday. Homer will still see plenty of work, as I don't see LSU pulling away to the point where Miami needs to abandon the run. However, Homer falls outside my top-40 running backs for this week, so there's a pretty decent likelihood you have a running back with a better matchup that you can swap into your lineup.

BIG 12

Texas Tech Quarterbacks (vs. Ole Miss)

I don't have the cajones to tell you to sit Will Grier or your Mountaineers against Tennessee. I do, however, want you to reconsider your Texas Tech shares for this weekend. Not only is coach Kliff Kingsbury mum on who will start at quarterback (though I have to believe it's McLane Carter at this stage), but Ole Miss' defense might present a tougher challenge than people are giving it credit for heading into this week. It should be a shootout, as I expect the game flow will end up with Mississippi scoring at will and Texas Tech responding by running a ton of plays and chucking the ball upward of 50 times. I just also expect Carter to struggle a bit, and given how close the competition was throughout camp, there's at least a chance Jett Duffey or Alan Bowman get in the mix. There's too much uncertainty in Lubbock for my taste.

BIG TEN

Ivory Kelly-Martin, RB, Iowa

Iowa scheduled a completely respectable Northern Illinois squad as its Week 1 opponent, a Northern Illinois squad with one of the best defenses in the country. Sure, Iowa should win this game, and Kelly-Martin is set to start in the backfield. He has the home-run capability that was missing at times from the Iowa ground game in 2017, and that means that he could hit value with just a couple of runs. I'd bet against that in this spot, though. Then there's also the frustrating usage patterns that always accompany Iowa running backs from the fantasy perspective. Look for Toren Young and other Iowa backs to get just enough run to make Kelly-Martin an underwhelming play this week.

CONFERENCE USA

Alex Thomson, QB, Marshall (at Miami of Ohio)

I'm bullish on Thomson in the longview for this season, but his inability to come out of fall camp as the clear-cut starter concerns me. Recent reports make it sound as though Thomson could rotate with Isaiah Green for at least Saturday's game, which puts a major cap on both players' expected volume. Pace is another concern here; Marshall in its own right tends to be a bit plodding (69.8 plays per game in 2017), but it usually faces more up-tempo opponents in Conference USA that helps lead to more possessions. Now, Miami is similarly methodical in its offensive approach, so I'm looking at this game as a low-tempo, low-scoring tilt that lacks fantasy punch.

MAC

Gus Ragland, Miami (OH) (vs. Marshall)

I won't state the obvious and tell you to bench Andrew Clair at Oregon or try to predict how much Buffalo will play its starters against Delaware State, so I'll stick with breaking down this matchup instead. Ragland is plenty talented and has one of the MAC's best receivers at his disposal in James Gardner. However, the same pace concerns I mentioned above apply, and Ragland has the tougher matchup between the two (or three) quarterbacks going in this matchup. Marshall ranked 25th in S&P+ on defense last season, so even though Ragland has the bonus of playing at home, there's reason enough to leave him on the bench in Week 1.

MOUNTAIN WEST

Brett Rypien, QB, Boise State (at Troy)

Fourth-year starters are generally safe bets at this level, but Rypien doesn't have a flawless profile. He regressed by 800 yards and eight touchdowns last season, and if your argument is that he lost playing time to Montel Cozart, you're only making my argument stronger. Going on the road to Troy – a team he threw for just 210 yards against last year – doesn't seem like an ideal spot to start his career resurrection. He'll also be breaking in a new receiving corps following the loss of Cedrick Wilson to the NFL. I'll fade Rypien and most of the Boise State offense until further notice.

PAC-12

Gardner Minshew, Quarterback, Washington State (at Wyoming)

Minshew arrived on campus this summer. This is his first start in a new system. On the road. Against a Wyoming defense that's arguably top-20 in the nation. No thank you. Mike Leach's system can churn stellar production out of mediocre talent, but I'll bet against it this week.

SEC

Jarrett Stidham, Auburn (vs. Washington at Atlanta)

Picking against a player of Stidham's talent makes me queasy. I have to do it, though. Washington's defense is loaded top to bottom even with some personnel losses to the NFL. Cornerback Byron Murphy on his own is enough to make me squeamish about using a quarterback against Washington. There are things working in Stidham's favor from a fantasy perspective; he'll be on the field all four quarters and Auburn's system should open up some easy throws along the way. In the end, this is too tough a matchup for Stidham to be considered a top-24 type quarterback. I'd also bench Kam Martin, who is trending downward as other Auburn backs continue to turn heads.

SUN BELT

Deondre Douglas, WR, Troy (vs. Boise State)

Douglas has been a staple in this Troy offense for years and is one of the top returning receivers in the Sun Belt. Unfortunately, he's facing a Boise State defense that returns 88 percent of its starters. Toss in the fact that Douglas will be working without quarterback Brandon Silvers for the first time, and we have a receiver that's best left on the bench with a wait-and-see tag until we get a sample of how Troy's new passing attack will function.