Exploiting the Matchups: Will Rodgers Rebound?

Holy injuries, Batman!

Excuse the weird proclamation to start things off, but after portraying the Dark Knight to perfection on Halloween and seeing a slew of stars go down less than 24 hours later, I'm left with no more appropriate exclamation to display my shock at the sheer craziness of it all. The injuries are bordering on ridiculous this year, so the "Holy (fill in the blank), Batman" just feels right.

One week after Arian Foster (Achilles) went down for the year, fantasy owners lost Le'Veon Bell (knee), Keenan Allen (kidney) and Steve Smith (Achilles) for the remaining games, not to mention upside back Khiry Robinson (leg). Matt Forte also faces the strong possibility of missing extended action with an MCL injury. Stars like Jamaal Charles (ACL), Jordy Nelson (ACL) and Kelvin Benjamin (ACL) were already long gone, and at just the midway point of the season it's scary to think of how dramatically different the fantasy landscape will be come the playoff weeks.

Depth is more crucial than ever, and it's imperative to pay more attention at this point of the season to opportunity over matchup. It makes decisions a bit less difficult in that manner, so if there's any silver lining to losing a weekly starter it's that. You can now worry much more about playing guys with clear paths to touches, with only a handful of exceptions. Those exceptions, of course, are when a player has an extreme matchup advantage or disadvantage, i.e., the Broncos, Seahawks and Rams defenses are awesome, the Giants, Saints and Lions stink like day-old bar bathroom vomit (and I used to work at a bar, so I know that awful stench). So play or don't play guys against these defenses. Beyond that, collect depth, give players a chance when the playing time should be there, and pray for Batman's teams, approximately 84 percent of which featured Bell and Allen.

As always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit column. Upgrades are players you wouldn't consistently start (or who have consistently underachieved), while those downgraded generally are lineup mainstays with a bad opponent/situation. With that out of the way, let's get to it.

UPGRADE:

Quarterback

Derek Carr, OAK at PIT

What more does Carr need to do to be considered a top-10 fantasy quarterback? All he's done in his six full games is average 288.7 yards and 2.5 touchdowns per game while tossing a mere three interceptions. He's coming off an utter dissection of the Jets and should have little difficulty with a highly burnable Steelers secondary in what could be a shootout.

Jameis Winston, TB vs. NYG

Winston's first 300-yard game as a pro has eluded him and likely will continue to do so with Vincent Jackson (knee) out. But this is as prime a matchup as matchups come. After producing two total touchdowns and throwing for 177 yards against an Atlanta team that has yielded the fifth fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs, Winston's life will get much easier against a Giants D giving up the most passing yards in the league (315.4).

Ryan Fitzpatrick, NYJ vs. JAC

Despite torn ligaments in Fitzpatrick's non-throwing hand, the gritty veteran is set to start against the Jaguars, a team that gave up a combined 591 yards and five touchdowns to the likes of Brian Hoyer and EJ Manuel in their last two games. Prior to leaving last week's loss, Fitzpatrick had averaged two touchdowns a game this season, and as long as Brandon Marshall can play through ankle and toe ailments, his pace should continue.

Running Back

Jeremy Hill, CIN vs. CLE

Hill's value all season has come almost solely from his ability to find the end zone, as he's posted six touchdowns through seven games despite averaging 46.7 total yards per contest. Finally that is about to change. Coming off consecutive weeks with at least 15 carries for the first time this year, the explosive bruiser is poised to take advantage of the league's worst run defense, which allows 147.0 yards per game.

Jeremy Langford, CHI at SD

Langford really hasn't done much in his rookie year, what with being buried behind Matt Forte and all. But the latter figures to be sidelined against a San Diego defense allowing a league-high 5.0 yards per carry. For a physical, decisive runner with good vision and balance who finished his Michigan State career with 10 consecutive 100-yard outings, that opportunity could translate to a strong starting debut.

C.J. Anderson, Ronnie Hillman, DEN at IND

Anderson is back, in case you missed his 100-plus and a score effort against the Packers. Hillman's last four games include two 100-yard performances and last week's 60 and two TD. Both have high upside against a Colts defense that's allowed at least 118 total yards or a touchdown to an opposing running back in all but one game.

Wide Receiver

Allen Hurns, JAC at NYJ

Secondary receivers facing the Jets have produced at least 80 yards and a touchdown in three of New York's last four games. With Allen Robinson likely to be locked down by Darrelle Revis, Hurns will look to continue his five-game touchdown streak by taking advantage of less coverage just as Kenny Stills, Danny Amendola and Michael Crabtree did when they played the Jets.

Steve Johnson, SD vs. CHI

Wait, so you thought for a second Philip Rivers might throw it less with Keenan Allen (kidney) on IR? Don't be ridiculous. The leader in passing attempts (348) and yards (2,753) through the season's halfway point is going to keep slinging it. After a huge week everyone's higher on Malcom Floyd, but don't forget that Johnson, who scored in the first two games this year, is healthy again and likely the chess piece that San Diego will move all over formations against a Bears D that's allowed six touchdowns and five 80-yard or better performances by wideouts in their last four games.

Pierre Garcon, WAS at NE

Garcon has not played to his ceiling yet this year, but this is his best chance yet to reach it. He's registered at least six targets in every game so far and has posted at least 5.0 fantasy points (standard scoring) without fail. Facing a suspect Patriots secondary that's allowed 190.3 yards per game to wideouts, in a matchup you KNOW the Redskins will have to throw it plenty, sets Garcon up for season highs.

Tight End

Heath Miller, PIT vs. OAK

In two competitive games playing with his old pal Ben Roethlisberger this year Miller has 18 catches on 24 targets for 189 yards. The Raiders will keep it close and they just so happen to be the same defense that has allowed a touchdown to a tight end in six of seven games, with four of those players also topping 80 yards.

Charles Clay, BUF vs. MIA

The Dolphins' ability to cover tight ends is deceiving if one looks just at the totals versus the position. They've faced the Jaguars (without Julius Thomas), Jets and Texans, which badly skew the totals given each team's complete lack of an even serviceable tight end. In their other four games, however, Miami has allowed a combined 355 yards and three TD to athletic, pass-catching tight ends, including Clay himself who burned them for 82 and a score in Week 3.

DOWNGRADE:

Quarterback

Andrew Luck, IND vs. DEN

For about 10 minutes of game action the real Andrew Luck made a guest appearance versus Carolina to make it one of the more intriguing and edge-of-your-seat Monday night contests in recent memory. After seeing Denver discombobulate Aaron Rodgers and Co., however, it seems safe to expect Luck to regress back to the bumbling mess who pitched it for a mere 40 yards in the first three quarters versus Carolina.

Aaron Rodgers, GB at CAR

Bad protection, underwhelming weapons, a brutally stingy defense. After throwing for a career-low 77 yards at Denver, the reigning league MVP could experience deja vu in Carolina.

Running Back

T.J. Yeldon, JAC at NYJ

Prior to the Jags' bye week, Yeldon managed 115 yards and a TD against a Buffalo front seven that was supposed to be imposing. Stalwart defensive tackle Kyle Williams sat out that game, though. Against a Jets defense that just got pummeled in every way possible by Oakland, don't expect Yeldon to remain as efficient. The Jets are still No. 1 against the run and will exercise some demons this week after consecutive losses.

DeAngelo Williams, PIT vs. OAK

Sure, Williams has been tremendous when he's filled in for Le'Veon Bell this season, totaling 334 yards and three touchdowns in games Bell either didn't play or didn't finish. That stellar performance will take a break this week, however, against a Raiders defense that hasn't allowed a rushing score since Week 2 and just stuffed Chris Ivory repeatedly for an embarrassing 17 yards on 15 carries.

Frank Gore, IND vs. DEN

Gore has tallied at least 75 total yards in six consecutive games. And then the Broncos came to town. When Luck can't get anything going through the air while facing an avalanche of pass rushers and smothering coverage in the secondary, Gore too will struggle against a defense that's basically shut down every running back they've faced not named Jamaal Charles or Adrian Peterson.

Wide Receiver

T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief, IND vs. DEN

Aqib Talib. Chris Harris. It doesn't matter who covers who, consider Hilton and Moncrief shut down for another week of misery for the Indy passing game.

Allen Robinson, JAC at NYJ

Next up for a visit to "Revis Island," don't count on Robinson to continue his awesome play. After four touchdowns in his last three games before Jacksonville's Week 8 bye, the breakout receiver is about to experience an extended bye week.

Randall Cobb and James Jones, GB at CAR

It's hard not to play both Cobb and Jones, but doing so with either would be rolling the dice in a big way. Josh Norman will shut one down almost completely or limit each, depending on whether he sticks to one or splits time covering the pair.

Tight End

Jason Witten, DAL

Although Witten has not scored since Week 1 (his last complete game with Tony Romo), he has produced at least 55 yards in four of the last six games, including a season-high 73 yards with Matt Cassel under center. No tight end, however, has topped the 65 yards Greg Olsen posted on the Eagles, and only one has found the end zone.