NFL Picks: Week 14 Early Line Movement and Betting Trends

NFL Picks: Week 14 Early Line Movement and Betting Trends

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

 NFL Week 14 Line Movement Breakdown

The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention. 

In Week 13, we saw some significant quarterback injuries which will impact line movement. With the trade deadline passed, teams will have to work the waiver wire or taxi squads for replacements. The highest point spread of the year is this week with the Cowboys -17 against the Texans. Only three games have a total of 48 points or higher continuing the trend of lower scores this season. 

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Latest NFL Week 14 Odds

For more, take a look at NFL Week 14 odds.

Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5) at Los Angeles Rams O/U 43.5    

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-9.5) O/U 45.0

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.0) O/U 38.5     

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) O/U 49.5      

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3.5) O/U 42.5   

Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys (-17.0) O/U 46.0

Minnesota Vikings (-1.0) at Detroit Lions O/U 53.0    

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at New York Giants O/U 45.0      

Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) at Denver Broncos O/U 42.5        

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-3.0) O/U 37.5     

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-5.0) O/U 44.0      

Miami Dolphins (-2.0) at Los Angeles Chargers O/U 52.5     

New England Patriots (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals O/U 43.5 

Byes: Falcons, Bears, Packers, Colts, Saints, Commanders

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NFL Week 14 Line Movement: Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers

The opening line in Week One was Chargers -5.5, it went to Dolphins -1.0 last Sunday and has moved to Dolphins -3.0 for a total of an 8.5 line move. The Dolphins have exceeded expectations and the Chargers have not lived up to them which has caused the line movement. The line has moved more because of the Dolphins success, but there is also an injury concern with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa who has an ankle issue. He is expected to start, but he could nurse the ankle this week and be held out of practice. 

The Dolphins are 8-4 and the Chargers are 6-6 so this line feels like it has moved too much in favor of the Dolphins for me. The Chargers look like an attractive home dog this week. 

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NFL Week 14 Line Movement: Los Angeles Raiders at Los Angeles Rams 

As we get later in the season, we are seeing larger line moves from the opening line to current and this game is one of them. This game has a whopping 10-point line move as it was Rams -4.0 and has moved to Raiders -6.0. There is no way anyone would have predicted this move even a few weeks ago as the Raiders were just about left for dead. 

But with no Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp on the Rams side and the Raiders playing much better we get the double-digit line move. Much like the Dolphins/Chargers game, this does feel like an overreaction despite all of the issues on the Rams side. Having the Raiders laying almost a touchdown on the road is scary, and the Rams did play the Seahawks tough on Sunday. 

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NFL Week 14 Line Movement: Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys

This line opened Cowboys -8.0 when they had backup quarterback Cooper Rush and has moved a whopping nine points to Cowboys -17.0. It was -14.0, and moved a full field goal after the Cowboys put up 54 points against the Colts on Sunday night football. The Texans are the worst team in football and they allowed a punt return, fumble return, and interception return against the Browns. The only issue in this game is whether or not the Cowboys will be motivated to score enough to cover the huge number. 

NFL Week 14 Line Movement: Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

We have several large divisional road favorites this week and finish with this game. This line opened as pick'em and landed on Chiefs -6.5 last Sunday. It is now Chiefs -9.0 after peaking at -9.5. The Broncos are 3-9 having lost four in a row and with one of the worst offenses in NFL history averaging a putrid 13.8 points per game. But they do have a formidable defense that ranks 2nd in points allowed and 3rd in total yards allowed so a lower-scoring game is usually the case with them. This game could easily end up 24-13 Chiefs and they would still cover the huge number on the road.  

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If you're located in Maryland or Ohio, remember that legal sportsbooks have already launched or are nearing launch. Maryland officially went live on Nov.23 and Ohio is set to launch on New Year's. Stay up to date on the latest offers in your area with Maryland Betting Promos and Ohio Betting Promos.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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