Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BENGALS | Browns | 49.60% | 562.5 | 84.91% | 7.49 |
| SAINTS | Titans | 22.50% | 365 | 78.49% | 4.84 |
| PATRIOTS | Redskins | 13.80% | 1250 | 92.59% | 1.02 |
| Jets | Jaguars | 5.60% | 275 | 73.33% | 1.49 |
| Falcons | 49ERS | 2.60% | 275 | 73.33% | 0.69 |
| STEELERS | Raiders | 1.70% | 200 | 66.67% | 0.57 |
| Broncos | COLTS | 1.50% | 220 | 68.75% | 0.47 |
| CHARGERS | Bears | 1.10% | 185 | 64.91% | 0.39 |
| Giants | BUCCANEERS | 0.50% | 130 | 56.52% | 0.22 |
| BILLS | Dolphins | 0.40% | 140 | 58.33% | 0.17 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
As usual, the Patriots are the no-brainer pick, but not too many have them available. The question facing most people is whether to use the Bengals (49.6 %) or fade them for another option.
The answer is maybe. Let's take a look at the math:
The chances of a Bengals win/Falcons loss is 23 percent. The chances of a Falcons win/Bengals loss is 11 percent. That's a ratio of 2.1 to 1.
In the former scenario (CIN win/ATL loss), three people out of 100 would lose with the Falcons plus nine on other teams for a total of 12. That would leave 88. If everyone's stake were worth $10 before Week 9, it would be worth $11.36 after it.
In the latter scenario (ATL win/CIN loss), 50 people
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BENGALS | Browns | 49.60% | 562.5 | 84.91% | 7.49 |
| SAINTS | Titans | 22.50% | 365 | 78.49% | 4.84 |
| PATRIOTS | Redskins | 13.80% | 1250 | 92.59% | 1.02 |
| Jets | Jaguars | 5.60% | 275 | 73.33% | 1.49 |
| Falcons | 49ERS | 2.60% | 275 | 73.33% | 0.69 |
| STEELERS | Raiders | 1.70% | 200 | 66.67% | 0.57 |
| Broncos | COLTS | 1.50% | 220 | 68.75% | 0.47 |
| CHARGERS | Bears | 1.10% | 185 | 64.91% | 0.39 |
| Giants | BUCCANEERS | 0.50% | 130 | 56.52% | 0.22 |
| BILLS | Dolphins | 0.40% | 140 | 58.33% | 0.17 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
As usual, the Patriots are the no-brainer pick, but not too many have them available. The question facing most people is whether to use the Bengals (49.6 %) or fade them for another option.
The answer is maybe. Let's take a look at the math:
The chances of a Bengals win/Falcons loss is 23 percent. The chances of a Falcons win/Bengals loss is 11 percent. That's a ratio of 2.1 to 1.
In the former scenario (CIN win/ATL loss), three people out of 100 would lose with the Falcons plus nine on other teams for a total of 12. That would leave 88. If everyone's stake were worth $10 before Week 9, it would be worth $11.36 after it.
In the latter scenario (ATL win/CIN loss), 50 people would lose with the Bengals plus another nine on other teams for a total of 59, leaving 41 remaining. One's $10 in equity before Week 9 would grow to 24.39. The ratio of 24.39 to 11.36 is 2.15.
So you can see it's close, ever-so-slightly favoring the Falcons. But when you're splitting hairs like this, you should go with your gut. The Jets are slightly more owned than the Falcons, so they're pretty much a draw with the Bengals too. And while the Saints are significantly more owned, they also have a better chance to win (according to Vegas) than the Jets or Falcons, so they too are a reasonable choice.
My Picks
1. New England Patriots
Hardly anyone has them available, but they're a slam dunk for reasons I don't need to explain to you. I give them a 93 percent chance to win this game.
2. Atlanta Falcons
They're a fraud, barely beating Washington at home, barely beating Tennessee on the road and losing at home to Tampa Bay last week. But they should still be able to handle the Blaine Gabbert 49ers in any venue. I give the Falcons a 77 percent chance to win this game.
3. New York Jets
Assuming Ryan Fitzpatrick can play - and right now it looks that way - the Jets are better than the Jaguars on both sides of the ball, and I'd expect their defense to force Blake Bortles into some mistakes. I give the Jets a 77 percent chance to win this game.
4. Cincinnati Bengals
They should destroy the Browns at home Thursday night, but these division rivals are familiar with one another, and there's some volatility with the short week. That said, the only reason they're not No. 2 is their high ownership level. I give the Bengals an 85 percent chance to win this game.
5. New Orleans Saints
The Saints have played better of late, and they're at home, but Marcus Mariota is back, and New Orleans' defense is among the very worst in the league. I give the Saints a 75 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions: None
