Michael Thomas
Michael Thomas
28-Year-Old Wide ReceiverWR
New Orleans Saints
2021 Fantasy Outlook
What a disastrous season for last year’s consensus top wide receiver. It started with a Week 1 high-ankle sprain that lingered into October, then Thomas was suspended for punching a teammate in Week 5, injured a hamstring along the way and didn’t return until Week 9. After posting two 100-yard games with backup Taysom Hill at quarterback, Thomas missed the season’s final three games after aggravating his ankle. He returned for the playoffs, with moderate success against the Bears before being shut out completely by the Buccaneers. After the season, Thomas had surgeries on his left ankle and shoulder, revealing he was never truly healthy all year. Prior to 2020, Thomas was the all-time leader in catch percentage by a mile and had just set the record for catches in a season with 149. From 2018-19, Thomas had an absurd 274 catches and averaged nearly 9.5 yards per target, despite having among the lowest aDOT in the league. That’s what happens when you catch virtually every pass thrown in your direction. At 6-3, 212, Thomas is big, rangy and athletic, but he’s not fast (4.57 40), reeling in only seven 40-yard catches in his four-and-a-half-year career. Thomas runs precise routes, finds soft spots in zones and has excellent hands — he’s the ultimate chain mover and possession target. That is, he was with Drew Brees (the completion percentage and accuracy king) under center. With Brees hanging it up, Thomas is a long shot to keep up his historic catch rate, but one should be careful not to regress him too much. Sean Payton’s system is still intact, and Thomas, who had two 100-yard games with Hill while playing injured, was also effective in 2019 with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback for seven games, i.e., Thomas should be fine whether Jameis Winston or Hill wins the job. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
#28.54
ADP
$Signed a five-year, $96.25 million contract with the Saints in July of 2019.
Inevitably restructures contract
WRNew Orleans Saints
Ankle
March 13, 2021
Thomas (ankle) restructured his contract to create $8.7 million in cap space for the Saints, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.
ANALYSIS
This was inevitable considering the ever-lasting salary-cap hole the Saints continue to climb out of. Perhaps more importantly, Nick Underhill of NewOrleans.Football reports Thomas' cap hit will now exceed $24 million in each of the next three seasons, essentially locking in the star wide receiver with the team for the foreseeable future. It's also likely the Saints will have to continually revisit the contract in upcoming years similar to what the team did with quarterback Drew Brees throughout the later stages of his career.
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NFL Stats
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Fantasy/Red Zone Stats
See red zone opportunities inside the 20, 10 and 5-yard lines along with the percentage of time they converted the opportunity into a touchdown.
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Advanced NFL Stats
How do Michael Thomas' 2020 advanced stats compare to other wide receivers?
This section compares his advanced stats with players at the same position. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that metric and it would be considered average. The longer the bar, the better it is for the player.
  • Air Yards Per Game
    The number of air yards he is averaging per game. Air yards measure how far the ball was thrown downfield for both complete and incomplete passes. Air yards are recorded as a negative value when the pass is targeted behind the line of scrimmage. All air yards data is from Sports Info Solutions and does not include throwaways as targeted passes.
  • Air Yards Per Snap
    The number of air yards he is averaging per offensive snap.
  • % Team Air Yards
    The percentage of the team's total air yards he accounts for.
  • % Team Targets
    The percentage of the team's total targets he accounts for.
  • Avg Depth of Target
    Also known as aDOT, this stat measures the average distance down field he is being targeted at.
  • Catch Rate
    The number of catches made divided by the number of times he was targeted by the quarterback.
  • Drop Rate
    The number of passes he dropped divided by the number of times he was targeted by the quarterback.
  • Avg Yds After Catch
    The number of yards he gains after the catch on his receptions.
Air Yards Per Game
76.4
 
Air Yards Per Snap
1.55
 
% Team Air Yards
16.8%
 
% Team Targets
10.8%
 
Avg Depth of Target
9.7 Yds
 
Catch Rate
72.7%
 
Drop Rate
1.8%
 
Avg Yds After Catch
2.1
 
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2020
2019
2018
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2016
2020 NFL Game Log
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2019 NFL Game Log
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2018 NFL Game Log
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2017 NFL Game Log
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Snap Distribution / Depth Chart
Snap Counts
Snap %
New Orleans SaintsSaints 2020 WR Snap Distribution See more data like this | See last season's snap counts
#% of Team Snaps

70758%
65854%
44636%
30925%
19616%
18215%
1119%
817%
565%
232%
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Receiving Alignment Breakdown
See where Michael Thomas lined up on the field and how he performed at each spot.
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2020 Michael Thomas Split Stats
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Michael Thomas
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123 days ago
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
After smashing the catch-percentage record in 2018, Thomas took down bigger prey last year, breaking Marvin Harrison's single-season receptions record and winning Offensive Player of the Year in the process. Thomas maintained his otherworldly catch rate (80.5 percent, second all time only to his 2018 mark) and averaged 9.3 YPT, eighth among the league's 30 100-target WRs, despite playing six games with a backup QB and seeing a massive bump in targets (185, 1st). Thomas' 1,725 receiving yards were also good for seventh in the record book. At 6-3, 212, Thomas has excellent size, runs precise routes and might have the best hands in the league. His rapport with Drew Brees is off the charts, and no player is more reliable at catching short passes and moving the chains. Thomas also led the league in red-zone targets (26) and scored nine times (T-4th), but he doesn't have deep speed (4.57 40) and isn't likely to make the big play - only three catches of 40-plus yards last year and seven in his four-year career. Despite leading the NFL in targets by a wide margin - he had 28 more than No. 2 Julio Jones - Thomas was merely tied for ninth in catches of 20 or more yards (17). Thomas' average depth of target (aDOT) was 8.1 yards (24th), and his 11.6 YPC ranked 23rd among 30 100-target WRs. Bottom line, with Drew Brees set to return in 2020, Thomas is arguably the safest pick on the draft board. He's 27, has missed only one game in his career (in 2016) and relies on short receptions from the NFL's all-time leader in completion percentage.
Why do we have a player who had only 147 targets (11th) and 11.2 YPC (27th) ranked so high? Because Thomas caught a preposterous 85 percent of the passes thrown his way, giving him 125 receptions last year, the fifth most in NFL history. To put Thomas' season in perspective, consider there have been only 44 100-target wide receiver seasons in NFL history where a player caught even 70 percent of his looks. At 75 percent, that number drops to 11, and the all-time record for catch percentage before 2018 was Wes Welker's 77.2 in 2007. It's as though someone broke Randy Moss' single-season TD record (23) by scoring 30. Of course, we should expect some regression from an all-time outlier season even though Thomas plays with the completion-percentage king Drew Brees, who broke his own record with 74.4 percent in 2018. At 6-3, 212, Thomas has good size but below-average speed - 4.57 40 at the 2016 combine. He's an excellent route runner with good hands, but he's not running a lot of deep routes - his average depth of target was only 7.7 yards, last among the league's 100-target wideouts. As a result, he had only two catches of 40-plus yards and 17 of 20-plus (T-16th.) Thomas is used heavily in the red zone, however, with 29 targets inside the 20 (T-2nd), 14 inside the 10 (T-2nd) and eight inside the five (T-3rd.) Accordingly, he should again be a reliable source of TDs, even if he rarely scores from long range. The biggest concern for Thomas is probably his quarterback. Brees turned 40 in January, and he tailed off somewhat over the season's final six games including the playoffs, failing to crack 8.5 YPA in any of those contests and throwing only seven TDs and six picks over that span. Still, Brees had a tremendous overall regular season (8.2 YPA, 32 TDs and five picks), and Thomas is his clear top target and first red-zone look even with tight end Jared Cook now in the fold.
With Brandin Cooks in New England, Thomas was set to be the No. 1 receiver for the league's most prolific passing offense. But something strange happened: the Saints became a running team. It wasn't all bad. Thomas still had 149 targets (6th), 104 catches (3rd) and 1,245 yards (6th). But he scored four fewer TDs than in 2016 on three fewer red-zone targets, as tailback Mark Ingram doubled his rushing TDs from six to 12, and all-purpose back Alvin Kamara added 13 scores of his own. At 6-3, 212, Thomas has good size but below-average speed (4.57). He's a good route runner with steady hands, but he's not going to beat anyone deep - only one catch of 40-plus yards last year, two in his two-year career. Despite throwing less often, Drew Brees still attacks in the intermediate and deep areas of the field - Thomas was fourth with 22 catches of 20-plus - but speedster Ted Ginn was the home run hitter with five catches of 40 or more yards. Accordingly, Thomas' 8.4 YPT mark was a modest 11th among the league's 27 100-target receivers, despite playing with the QB who led the NFL in YPA at 8.1. (By contrast Ginn had 11.2 YPT.) Heading into 2018, Thomas is still the team's undisputed No. 1 target and should be drafted for volume and consistency. Just don't expect many big plays or an undue share of red-zone work, as Kamara and Ingram figure to again occupy a large share of the team's usage.
Few rookie wideouts pan out as their team's No. 1 targets. Thomas was an exception -- so much so that after the season, the Saints jettisoned their former top receiver Brandin Cooks for a first-round pick. At 6-3, 212 and with 4.57 speed, Thomas is athletically on the cusp of what's typically required for a bona fide No. 1, but he's surprisingly agile and quick for a tall receiver and has excellent hands and good ball skills. Most importantly he has the trust of Drew Brees from whom he caught an unheard-of 76 percent of his 121 targets. Thomas also saw a fair amount of red-zone work last year (19 targets, T-11th) despite missing a game, and his size and hands make him well-suited to operate there -- seven of Thomas' nine scores came on red-zone throws. Thomas isn't a major downfield weapon -- only one catch of 40-plus yards, and his 12.4 YPC average was pedestrian. (His 9.4 YPT was fifth best, but driven entirely by his absurd catch rate.) Even with Cooks gone it's unlikely Thomas will see the deep balls left behind. While Willie Snead (4.56 40) is suited more to a possession role, the team added home run specialist Ted Ginn to run those routes, so Thomas' target depth should remain roughly the same. While Thomas might not be a game-breaker, he's a quality intermediate target, red-zone threat and top option in a Drew Brees-led offense.
Drafted 47th overall, Thomas has a chance for a significant role as a rookie with long-time Saint Marques Colston no longer around. While Willie Snead and Brandin Cooks should start, both are small and not especially useful in the red zone. At 6-3, 212, Thomas is tall, athletic and agile. He's not fast - 4.57 40 - but he has good hands, solid ball skills and scored 18 TDs the last two seasons at Ohio State. Tight end Coby Fleener will also see red-zone work, and 6-6 Brandon Coleman should make the team, but Thomas is the favorite for the No. 3 receiver job.
More Fantasy News
Likely needs multiple surgeries
WRNew Orleans Saints
Ankle
January 19, 2021
Thomas is expected to undergo surgeries on his shoulder and left ankle this offseason, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
ANALYSIS
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Held catchless in loss
WRNew Orleans Saints
January 17, 2021
Thomas was targeted four times and did not record a reception in Sunday's season-ending 30-20 loss to the Buccaneers.
ANALYSIS
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Scores in return
WRNew Orleans Saints
January 10, 2021
Thomas secured five of seven targets for 73 yards and a touchdown in the Saints' 21-9 win over the Bears on Sunday.
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Comes off injured reserve
WRNew Orleans Saints
January 9, 2021
The Saints activated Thomas (ankle) from injured reserve Saturday, Nick Underhill of NewOrleans.Football reports.
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Designated to return
WRNew Orleans Saints
Ankle
January 6, 2021
The Saints designated Thomas (ankle) to return from injured reserve Wednesday, Nick Underhill of NewOrleans.Football reports.
ANALYSIS
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