Julio Jones

Arguably a top-5 all-time NFL wideout, Jones (hamstring) missed more than two games last year for the first time since 2013. For a 32-year-old, 220-pound receiver with 1,320 career targets, health is the biggest question. The news from 2020 wasn't all bad, though. Jones averaged 15.1 YPC and a huge 11.3 yards per target (first among non-PED-using receivers with 60 or more targets). He also made plenty of big plays — 16 catches of 20-plus yards in only nine games. Jones once again had an end-zone allergy — only three TDs — but that's par for the course, not a sign of decline. In short, when he was on the field there was no real slippage in his skills. This year, he’ll take those skills to Tennessee after he was traded in June. While Jones is going from a pass-heavy team in Atlanta to a run-heavy team in Tennessee, the Titans do not have any established pass-catchers other than A.J. Brown, with whom Jones will form one of the league’s best WR tandems. WR Corey Davis (92 targets) and TE Jonnu Smith (65) exited in free agency, leaving behind 157 targets. Jones should see a large portion of those from quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who has the arm to find Jones downfield. A better offense than what he had in Atlanta could give Jones more red-zone opportunities too. Most of all, Jones needs to stay healthy this season.

One of the greatest receivers in NFL history, Jones might be past his prime, but not by much. Last year he caught 99 passes, 21 of which went for 20-plus yards (T-3rd) en route to 1,394 receiving yards (2nd) in 15 games, but his usually elite per-play averages took a dip - 8.9 YPT (11th among the league's 30 100-target WR), 14.1 YPC (10th) and only three catches of 40-plus. Jones' odd issue with catching touchdowns resurfaced, after he scored seven during the second half of 2018 and four more in the first three games of last year. He had a two-TD game Week 15 against the Niners but otherwise did not score from Weeks 4-17. In his defense, he received only three inside-the-10 targets and zero inside-the-5 chances over that span - other than in the 49ers game where he had two from inside the 5, converting both. For whatever reason, the Falcons don't look to Jones near the goal line that often, and at 31, he's less likely to provide distance scoring. At 6-3, 220, and running a 4.39 40 at the 2011 combine, Jones is one of the NFL's all-time size/speed freaks. He's probably not as fast as he once was, but he's still an excellent route runner with reliable hands, and it doesn't hurt that he's played with the same competent quarterback for his entire career. Once an injury risk, Jones has missed only four games since 2013. With Mohamed Sanu no longer in the fold and Austin Hooper leaving in free agency, there's no reason to think Jones' target share should diminish much in 2020. Third-year man Calvin Ridley is the only other mouth to feed, and there's plenty to go around in the Falcons' pass-happy offense.

Even in his age-29 season, Jones was arguably still the best receiver in the NFL. He led the league with 170 targets and 1,677 yards, the 12th most in NFL history. He had 10 100-yard games and averaged 14.8 YPC (6th) and 9.9 YPT (5th). Oddly, Jones' touchdown drought - only 25 TDs on his last 703 targets heading into 2018 - continued for seven games last year with another 81 targets and not a single TD. But Jones scored eight times over the season's final nine games, debunking the idea that he's not a capable red-zone presence. At 6-3, 220, and having run a blistering 4.39 40 at the 2011 combine, Jones has long been one of the position's athletic freaks, and his speed and explosiveness seem largely intact. Although he had only two catches of 40-plus yards, the fewest in his career, he had 24 catches of 20-plus yards (3rd) and maintained his stellar per-play efficiency. Jones turned 30 in February, but he's played all 32 games the last two years and has missed only two games over his last four. Last year's first-round pick, Calvin Ridley, seems to be a good complement for Jones, and even with Ridley seeing 92 targets, and Mohamed Sanu 94, Jones still paced the NFL in opportunities. Bottom line, with a healthy and competent quarterback and an offense built around him, Jones has as high a floor as any receiver in the league.

By most measures Jones is an inner-circle-Hall-of-Fame-level receiver - more than 9.0 YPT every year of his career, four straight 1,400-yard seasons and big performances in the playoffs and Super Bowl. But one thing's missing: the touchdowns. After scoring 18 TDs on 224 targets his first two seasons, Jones has 25 over his last five years and 703 targets. That's less than one TD for every 28 targets, when league average last year was one every 23, and that includes RBs who rarely catch touchdowns relative to WRs and TEs. Last year was the nadir as Jones found paydirt just three times on 148 targets - 19 of which occurred in the red zone, including 11 inside the 10-yard line. At 6-3, 220, and with 4.34 speed, Jones is the prototype No. 1 NFL receiver and red-zone target, so the lack of scoring - persisting despite three offensive play callers - is particularly odd. Maybe Matt Ryan, the common denominator, just isn't good at connecting with Jones in the end zone for some reason. Whatever the cause, at this point, it's simply something we need to price in. Last year, Jones' 9.8 YPT placed him third among the 27 100-target WR, and his 16.4 YPC was fifth. Accordingly, there's no reason to think the 29-year-old has lost a step, and given his considerable physical skills, we might not notice even if he did. The Falcons drafted Calvin Ridley with the 26th overall pick in April, but Ridley's targets will come at Mohamed Sanu and Justin Hardy's expense, not Jones'.

After seeing an ungodly 203 targets in 2015, Jones got only 129 looks in 14 games last season. But in the league's most efficient offense, Jones made the most of them, ranking first among the NFL's 41 100-target receivers with 10.7 YPT and second with 17.0 YPC. As a result, he finished second in yards (1,409) despite the two missed contests. Per usual, Jones was a red-zone afterthought (only 10 targets), and he scored only six times, oddly par for the course for a 6-3, 220-pound, Hall-of-Fame-level WR who has scored 10 TDs only once. The Falcons rarely look his way when they get close. Despite the low volume, Jones was second in catches of 20-plus (27) -- his 4.34 40 speed apparently still intact more than half a decade after it was tested at the Combine -- and had five catches of 40-plus (T-8th). The Falcons added no weapons of note this offseason, so Jones will reprise his role as the team's unquestioned top target. But at age 28, and prone to nagging injuries, including a surgically repaired toe from which he's still recovering at press time, he comes with more injury risk than the other top options. But with durable and reliable Matt Ryan under center, Jones has very little performance risk -- even with offensive mastermind Kyle Shanahan leaving for San Francisco. In fact, it's possible Jones could even see more red-zone looks this season.

Would it kill Julio Jones to score a touchdown? How else can one explain a meager 14 TDs over his last 366 targets spanning 31 games? And Jones isn't some small, quick possession receiver who isn't used in the red zone. He's 6-3, 220, and ran a 4.34 40 at the Combine. Jones' 22 RZ targets ranked sixth last year, and his 11 targets inside the 10 tied for seventh. One would expect his TDs to regress positively to double-digits, but that's only happened once in his five-year career. Either way, Jones is one of the game's elite WR - his 136 catches tied Antonio Brown for second all time, and his 1,871 yards were also second all time, behind only Calvin Johnson's best season. Put differently, peak Jerry Rice never caught as many passes or amassed as many yards in a season asJones did last year. Jones was also efficient - his 9.2 YPT ranked eighth among the league's 32 100-target WR, and he sustained this as the telegraphed top target, receiving a league-leading 203 looks. Nonetheless, Jones didn't make many big plays. In addition to just eight TDs, he had only five catches of 40-plus yards (T-14th). Expect more of the same in 2016. The Falcons don't have anyone who poses a threat to Jones' targets - Mohamed Sanu, Jacob Tamme, Justin Hardy and Devonta Freeman are merely complementary options.

Jones finished third in the league in receiving yards but likely would have been first had a hip injury not cost him a game against the Steelers' generous pass defense late in the year. In fact, but for the injury, Jones might have challenged the record for receiving yards in a game — he had 259 against the Packers when he was sidelined in the fourth quarter. Impressive per-game yardage and catch totals aside, Jones scored only six touchdowns, thanks to a paltry 12 red-zone targets, tying him for 38th with players like Doug Baldwin and Robert Woods. At 6-3, 220, Jones has excellent red-zone size, and not much competition for work in the area, now that Tony Gonzalez is retired and Roddy White (14 red-zone looks) is on the downside of his career. Expect Jones' red-zone work to increase toward the 20 targets he had in 2012 (he missed most of 2013 with a foot injury) and his touchdown totals to spike accordingly. Unlike most No. 1 receivers, Jones doesn't merely combine plus size with adequate speed, but he actually ran a blistering 4.34 40 at the NFL Combine a few years ago. That puts him in a class with Calvin Johnson as one of the league's rare freak athletes. As such, Jones is liable to make more big plays than your typical star wideout — he led the league with 31 catches of 20-plus yards and averaged 9.8 YPT (sixth among the league's 41 100-target WR). At press time, Jones is healthy, and the Falcons did little to boost their receiving depth this offseason. While last year's pass-friendly offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter could be missed, his replacement, Kyle Shanahan, also favored a pass-heavy attack during his stops in Houston and Washington. As such, expect another big workload for Jones, only with more red-zone targets.

With so many big seasons by the league’s top wideouts, it’s easy to forget Jones was atop the receiving-yardage board when he fractured his foot in Week 5. In fact, in five games, he either had a touchdown or 99 yards in every one. At 6-3, 220 and with 4.34 speed, Jones is arguably the league’s most athletic receiver besides Calvin Johnson, and like Johnson can operate from long range and in the red zone. In fact, Jones had three catches of 40-plus in just five games, a pace that would have put him among the league leaders. Even better, Jones had seven inside-the-10 looks in those five games, a pace that would have dwarfed league-leader Dez Bryant’s 16 in a full season. Of course, Jones was playing alongside a gimpy Roddy White who would have taken at least a couple of those goal-line opportunities were he at full strength. But White will turn 33 in November, so it’s likely Jones’ role will grow relative to White’s in any event. Throw in Tony Gonzalez’s retirement, and Jones – long one of the league’s most efficient wideouts – could also become one of its most heavily targeted. Jones had surgery in October, but is working with the team’s training staff and expected to return sometime in training camp.

If it weren't for Roddy White's established rapport with Matt Ryan and track record of durability, Jones would have a strong case to be the No. 2 receiver on the board. As it stands, Jones is one of the best per-play receivers in the league, averaging 9.3 YPT (9th) last year, and despite being just 19th in targets (129) tied for 11th with 17 catches of 20-plus and ninth with five catches of 40 or more yards. At 6-3, 220, and having run a 4.34 40 at the NFL Combine, Jones is a rare combination of size and speed, possibly the most physically gifted wideout this side of Calvin Johnson. But with White (143 targets) and Tony Gonzalez (124 targets) set to return, and Steven Jackson likely to see his share of touches near the goal line, Jones' ceiling is lower than that of the other elite options on the board.

While Roddy White made his living on volume, Jones was the team’s big-play weapon. Jones averaged a whopping 17.8 YPC (4th among 90-target WR) and 10.1 YPT (7th) and had six catches of 40-plus yards (tied for 7th) in just 13 games. At 6-3, 220, and having run a 4.34 40 at the NFL Combine, Jones is a rare combination of size and speed arguably surpassed only by Calvin Johnson. Jones scored eight TDs despite seeing almost no work inside the red zone – just seven targets, only one of which was from inside the 10. If that keeps up, it’s likely he could approach double-digit scores solely from long distance. But if the Falcons take advantage of Jones’ size from in close, he could find himself among the league leaders. Jones should improve in Year 2, and his rapport with quarterback Matt Ryan should only get better. But as long as White is Ryan’s first read, and Tony Gonzalez (21 targets) and Michael Turner (60 rushes) are the team’s top options in the red zone, Jones’ ceiling will be capped.

Most rookie receivers don't find themselves in prominent roles off the bat. But given what the Falcons gave up to get Jones – the 27th pick, the 59th pick, the 124th pick and next year's first and fourth rounders – their lack of depth beyond Roddy White and their win-now mentality, the team will do everything in its power to get him involved this year. At 6-3, 220 and having run a 4.34 40 at the NFL Combine, Jones is a tremendous athlete and dangerous in any area of the field. He's got ideal red-zone size, a 38-inch vertical leap and good hands. Jones isn't particularly elusive in the open field, but he's tough to bring down and can get yards after the catch. He might not start right away, and White will still be Matt Ryan's first look, but expect Jones to be a factor this year. Jones had surgery to repair a fracture in his foot in March but should be healthy for the start of training camp.