Trevor Lawrence

Lawrence was decent enough last season (QB12 in fantasy) but failed to back up his promising 2022 when he finished as QB7. His TD pass rate decreased, his INT rate increased and he had no more than 15 fantasy points in half of his 16 games. Lawrence dealt with numerous injuries despite missing just once game, and he tied for the league lead with seven lost fumbles. But Lawrence's accuracy was consistent with the year before, and he actually improved his downfield passing. He threw deep on 11.9 percent of his attempts (fifth) as his average target depth increased to a career-high 8.2 yards, and on attempts of 20-plus yards his 55.7 percent on-target rate ranked seventh. Lawrence was hurt by a below-average 21.4 TD percentage in the red zone. Positive regression in that area would buy him some extra TDs this year. WR Brian Thomas, the 23rd overall pick in this year's draft, should also help in the red zone. At 6-3, 209, the former basketball star has a wide catch radius and can also get behind defenses with 4.33 speed -- blazing for this size. The Jaguars also brought in free-agent acquisition Gabe Davis, giving the strong-armed Lawrence two significant vertical threats. Calvin Ridley left in free agency and Zay Jones was released, but WR Christian Kirk, TE Evan Engram and RB Travis Etienne all return, providing Lawrence with perhaps his best supporting cast yet. The 24-year-old also adds some rushing stats, averaging 321 yards and 3.7 TDs per year. If Lawrence is to become a fantasy stalwart, this is the season.

Freed from the shackles of Urban Meyer, Lawrence looked more like the QB the Jaguars thought they were drafting No. 1 overall in 2021. With Doug Pederson at the helm, Lawrence improved significantly across the board in 2022. His on-target rate jumped five percentage points to 73.8 as his completion rate increased from 59.6 to 66.3 percent. He more than doubled his TD passes while more than halving his interceptions. And he helped turn a three-win team in 2021 into a playoff winner when he led a 27-point comeback victory in the wild-card round. After a QB7 finish last season, Lawrence could break into the top 5 of fantasy quarterbacks with another step forward. While his YPA increased by a full yard last season, it was still only 7.0, 18th in the league, giving him room to improve. He completed 34.4 percent of his attempts of 20-plus yards, 20th, and his 10.5 YPA on such throws ranked 28th. Calvin Ridley, who returns from a year-long suspension, should help with that and forms a strong WR trio with Christian Kirk and Zay Jones. TE Evan Engram is coming off a 73-catch season, and RB Travis Etienne is coming off a 1,400-yard year. Offensive line is a trouble spot, though, with RT Jawaan Taylor lost in free agency and first-round rookie Anton Harrison possibly starting immediately at LT with Cam Robinson facing a suspension. If the O-Line can keep him upright, Lawrence has the talent, weapons, mobility and coach to become a fantasy stalwart.

It's hard to know what to make of Lawrence after the disaster in Jacksonville last season. The first overall pick looked like a massive bust, throwing five more interceptions (17) than TD passes (12). His on-target percentage was 31st, with only fellow rookie Zach Wilson lower. His 6.0 YPA ranked last, below even Wilson. Lawrence at least tried to throw downfield, his 7.9-yard average target depth ranking 15th — not that it went well. On attempts of 20-plus yards, Lawrence was 30th in YPA (8.6), 29th in completion percentage (29.9) and last in on-target percentage (37.3). Of course, all of that awfulness is mitigated in part by the circus that was Urban Meyer. Not only that, but Lawrence lost arguably his top target, DJ Chark, to a season- ending injury Week 4. This year can be treated as a do-over for Lawrence under new coach Doug Pederson, who should at least give the young QB a chance to succeed. Chark is gone to Detroit, though, with Jacksonville instead signing Christian Kirk to a big-money deal. The Jaguars also signed Zay Jones to go with 32-year-old Marvin Jones and disappointing 2020 second-round pick Laviska Shenault, and they added speed at TE with Evan Engram. There are more guys to throw to than last year, but the team still lacks a speed receiver to get downfield. That's not good for any QB, and especially one like Lawrence who struggled so badly a year ago.

The NFL has waited for Lawrence since he led Clemson to the national championship in 2018 as a true freshman. To hear scouts, coaches, GMs, media and the hype train tell it, Lawrence can't miss. The top pick in this year's draft seemingly has few flaws. At 6-6, he has prototypical size for a quarterback, and while he didn't run the 40 at his pro day, he's a dual-threat athlete who is elusive on the move. He has the arm strength, touch and accuracy to make throws at each level and "throws receivers open" with excellent ball placement on short and intermediate passes. Lawrence is noted for being mechanically sound, and his vision, poise under pressure and leadership are near universally praised. About the only criticisms — mild criticisms — are that his accuracy is very good but not elite and his delivery can get long. Will Lawrence live up to the immense hype? From a fantasy perspective, it's easily worth the risk to find out. He'll start from Day 1 in Urban Meyer's new regime in Jacksonville, which all but guarantees 550 attempts. Offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell will call plays, and while he doesn't necessarily scream innovator, the Jags have plenty of talent around Lawrence in running back James Robinson and wideouts DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault and Marvin Jones, who played with Bevell in Detroit. Plus, the Jags used their second pick of the first round on Lawrence's Clemson teammate Travis Etienne. Lawrence is similarly mobile as the quarterbacks Meyer's collegiate teams always relied on, which should offer a base of rushing stats. If the hype proves accurate, Lawrence will outperform his late-round ADP, and if he pops, like, say, Justin Herbert (QB9 last season), he could be a top-5 fantasy QB.