QB Rankings

Entering last season, the question in Kansas City was less about Mahomes' NFL aptitude than whether coach Andy Reid would truly open the offense or play it cautious with his first-year starter. Well, Reid went for broke, and the cannon-armed Mahomes made it pay off. He threw a league-high 80 passes longer than 20 yards, accounting for 13.8 percent of his attempts (most among QBs with at least 450 passes), and led the league with 10 TDs on those throws. Mahomes also ranked second in YPA (8.8) and sixth in average target depth (9.2). Easily the MVP, he became the second QB in NFL history after Peyton Manning (2013) to pass for 5,000-plus yards and 50 touchdowns, his 8.6 TD percentage the highest since Aaron Rodgers in 2011 (9.0). Losing Kareem Hunt the last five games didn't hurt the offense much, but it could be a different story if Tyreek Hill - who at press time is banned indefinitely from team activities - doesn't return. Hill was Mahomes' favorite deep target last season, catching a league-high eight passes of 40-plus yards. Next up are the oft-injured Sammy Watkins and second-round pick Mecole Hardman. Both have questions, but both are fast enough (4.33 40 for Hardman) to stretch the field. The almost-uncoverable Travis Kelce is a constant, and the backfield is led by Damien Williams, who shined after Hunt exited, and free-agent addition Carlos Hyde. Regression is inevitable - Mahomes is not likely to outpace the No. 2 QB by four fantasy points per game again - but in Reid's offense it shouldn't be crippling, even with the likely loss of Hill.

A year removed from an ACL tear, Watson showed no ill effect last season, finishing top 7 in completion percentage (68.3), YPA (8.2) and passer rating (103.1). He kept running too, averaging 5.6 yards per carry and scoring five touchdowns, third among quarterbacks. A weak offensive line often forced Watson to run, but his league-high 62 sacks - the most for a quarterback since 2006 - was also partially caused by holding the ball too long. For all the sacks his playing style leads to, Watson also creates frequent long gains when he dodges pass rushers rather than throwing the ball away or settling for a dump-off. His 9.2-yard average depth of target ranked seventh, and his 10 touchdowns thrown from outside the pocket were second to only Patrick Mahomes' 11. And that was all accomplished with a receiving corps that couldn't stay healthy - Will Fuller, Keke Coutee, Demaryius Thomas and Bruce Ellington each played no more than seven games. The Texans are optimistic Fuller and Coutee will be healthy for Week 1, and the team traded for pass-catching back Duke Johnson in August. While the offensive line still looks shaky, it should at least benefit from the addition of left tackle Tytus Howard, the 23rd overall pick in the draft. If the 23-year-old Watson takes another step forward - his completion percentage jumped 6.5 points last year - without straying too far from his aggressive instincts, he could challenge for the top fantasy spot among quarterbacks.

The No. 1 pick in last year's draft, Mayfield debuted Week 3 and took over the starting job the following week. His big break came when the Browns fired offensive coordinator Todd Haley entering Week 9, replacing him with running backs coach Freddie Kitchens. In six games under Haley, Mayfield completed 58.3 percent of his passes with 6.6 YPA and eight touchdowns. In eight games under Kitchens, those numbers jumped to 68.4 percent, 8.6 YPA and 19 TDs, sparked by success throwing the deep ball. In Weeks 9-17, on attempts longer than 20 yards, Mayfield posted a 14.7 TD percentage (2nd), 17.8 YPA (3rd) and 108.5 passer rating (6th). For the season, his 9.4-yard average depth of target ranked fifth in the league. The offseason addition of Odell Beckham Jr. could take Mayfield and the Cleveland offense to the next level this year under Kitchens, now the head coach but still the playcaller, with former Buccaneers assistant Todd Monken the new offensive coordinator. Jarvis Landry returns to man the slot, with young wideouts Rashard Higgins and Antonio Callaway showing promise and tight end David Njoku perhaps on the verge of a breakout. Meanwhile, Kareem Hunt will join Nick Chubb in the backfield at midseason after serving an eight-game suspension. In short, Mayfield is set up for big success.

Rodgers topped 4,000 passing yards for the seventh time in his career last season, but his 25 touchdown passes were the fewest he's throw in a full campaign, as injuries, a lack of weapons and uninspired playcalling helped hand the Packers back-to-back losing seasons for the first time since 1990-91. Rodgers played with an MCL sprain and tibial plateau fracture in his left leg all year and also suffered a concussion Week 17. The injuries no doubt had an impact, as did the lack of reliable receivers behind Davante Adams, who sucked up 27.5 percent of the team's targets, 30 percent of receiving yards and 52 percent of receiving TDs (despite missing Week 17). Green Bay's young wide receivers were inconsistent, while tight end Jimmy Graham was consistently ineffective. Too often, Rodgers was forced to simply throw the ball away, and while that helped him post an NFL-record 0.3 percent INT rate, it also led to a career-low 4.2 TD percentage and his second-lowest completion percentage (62.3). He ranked 17th in YPA (7.4) and 21st in completion percentage (32.5) on passes longer than 20 yards. It was enough to cost coach Mike McCarthy his job after 13 seasons in charge. In comes head coach Matt LaFleur and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett to try to return the 35-year-old Rodgers to MVP form. The team didn't add new offensive pieces, so improvement will hinge on scheme, internal development and health. Expecting improvement in the first two is reasonable, but the latter might be the most important as injuries continue to pile up for Rodgers.

Newton played much of last season with a lingering shoulder injury that has hampered his ability to throw since 2016, though he had surgery on a torn rotator cuff in March 2017. He struggled throwing downfield last year even before he showed up on the injury report Week 8, noting that he "couldn't throw the ball farther than 30 yards." It certainly showed - a league-low 7.2 percent of his attempts were longer than 20 yards last season, and his 7.3-yard average depth of target was higher than only Blake Bortles (7.0) among 33 qualified QBs. Even worse, Newton's 5.7 YPA on downfield attempts was the lowest by a full two yards. The cautious approach inflated his completion percentage to a career-high 67.9 as he threw short time and again. Newton underwent another shoulder surgery in January, which included removing scar tissue left from his 2017 procedure, and resumed throwing footballs in May. If he's finally healthy, he'll likely start looking downfield more, and with it, should find increased production. While his wideouts are unproven, D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel both flashed big-play potential last season, and tight end Greg Olsen is back from a foot injury. And considering he's averaged 6.0-8.7 rush attempts per game every year in the league - including 7.2 per game last year even with the bum shoulder - Newton should have enough rushing production to challenge for top-5 QB status.