1.  
WR  KC
Rec
94
Rec Yds
1428
Rec TD
11
Rec Avg
15.2
Rush Att
16
Rush Yds
95
Rush TD
2
Rush Avg
5.9
There’s never been any doubt about Hill’s efficiency — he’s eclipsed 9.5 yards per target every year since he broke out in 2017 — but his volume was usually modest, due to injuries and the variety of weapons on the Chiefs. But the two times Hill has cracked 135 targets, first in 2018 (1,630 scrimmage yards, 14 total TDs) and now in 2020 (1,399 scrimmage yards 17 total TDs, despite sitting out Week 17) the results have been massive. At 5-10, 185, Hill is arguably the fastest player in the league — he ran a 4.24 40 at his Pro Day in 2016. But Hill is also as quick as he is fast, and almost impossible to corral in open space. The Chiefs even use him in the running game, and he’s had six rushing TDs in his career, a bonus that’s projectable. And even though Hill is small, the Chiefs use him from in close — 12 targets from inside the 10 (T-5th) and six inside the five (T-12th). He returns in 2021 with Patrick Mahomes as his QB and Andy Reid as his head coach, and at age 27 there’s no reason Hill should slow down. Travis Kelce will absorb a large portion of the team’s targets, but Mahomes finished last season fifth in passing attempts (588) and inside-the-10 attempts (46), despite missing Week 17, so there’s plenty to go around.
2.  
WR  SEA
Rec
92
Rec Yds
1509
Rec TD
11
Rec Avg
16.4
Rush Att
0
Rush Yds
0
Rush TD
0
Rush Avg
0.0
Through the first 11 weeks last season, Metcalf had a 90-58-1,039-9 line (with 17.9 YPC and 11.5 YPT), a 1,500-yard, 13-TD pace. But he had only one TD over the season’s final five weeks and never again eclipsed 100 yards in a game. The problem was Seattle’s schedule (they faced the Nos. 1, 2 and 9 pass defenses) and their inability to protect Russell Wilson, whose record-pace numbers also cratered. But coach Pete Carroll does prefer a more run-heavy offense, something that’s limited Wilson and his receivers for nearly a decade. In fact, Wilson himself agreed to waive his no-trade clause if the Seahawks were willing to move him, presumably to a team that would “let Russ cook.” Assuming Wilson stays put, Metcalf should reprise his status as his monstrous big-play weapon. Physically, Metcalf is Julio Jones with 15 more pounds of muscle. Or perhaps Terrell Owens with more speed. The last (and perhaps only) physical freak at Metcalf’s level was peak Calvin Johnson. At 6-4, an absurdly jacked 235 and running a 4.33 40, Metcalf can get behind any defense, and Wilson has the arm to reach him. But his production fell late in the season in part because Wilson didn’t have time for Metcalf’s deeper routes (13.3 aDOT, 4th) to develop. Bottom line, there’s some uncertainty, but if Wilson sticks around — something that seems likely — Metcalf again should compete with Tyreek Hill to be the league’s most dangerous game breaker.
3.  
WR  GB
Rec
110
Rec Yds
1322
Rec TD
14
Rec Avg
12.0
Rush Att
0
Rush Yds
0
Rush TD
0
Rush Avg
0.0
Adams had a fantasy season for the ages last year, especially when you consider he missed 2.5 games. Prorate his numbers over the full 16, and you get 177-136-1,628-21, which would be the greatest WR PPR season of all time, eclipsing Jerry Rice's 1995. At 6-1, 215, Adams is a stout, physical wideout who runs smooth routes and has great hands. He's particularly effective in the red zone, where Aaron Rodgers targets him like no one else in the league. Despite the missed games, Adams had 28 red-zone targets (1st), 20 targets inside the 10 (1st) and 11 targets inside the five (1st). It also helped that Adams had one of the league's easiest schedules - only twice all year did he face a top-10 fantasy defense against receivers (Bears, 8th), and in those games combined he managed a modest-for-him 15-12-107-2 line. Adams faced the top-ranked Rams defense in the divisional playoffs and had 66 yards and a TD on 10 targets, too. Although he tied a career high with five catches of 40-plus yards, Adams' 11.9 YPC was in line with his career averages, while his per-target efficiency went through the roof (9.2 YPT) thanks to a career-high 77.2 percent catch rate. In other words, he wasn't getting targeted farther downfield - his 8.7-yard average target depth ranked 26th among the league's 35 100-target wideouts - he just caught everything thrown his way. At 28, Adams is still in his late prime, and with Rodgers back for another year, no one has a higher floor.
4.  
WR  TEN
Rec
94
Rec Yds
1458
Rec TD
11
Rec Avg
15.5
Rush Att
0
Rush Yds
0
Rush TD
0
Rush Avg
0.0
Despite missing Weeks 2 and 3 last year with knee injuries the Titans’ medical staff had initially deemed season-ending, Brown managed a second straight 1,000-yard campaign. And while he regressed from his other-worldly and unsustainable 12.4 YPT as a rookie, Brown still netted 10.1 yards per look (4th). At 6-0, 226, Brown is built more like a workhorse running back than an outside receiver. As such, he’s a load to bring down, and his 4.49 speed seems to understate his ability to take short passes to the house. Despite seeing only 12 red-zone targets (T-34th), Brown scored 11 touchdowns (5th) last year. He had surgery on both knees after the year, underscoring the severity of the injuries through which he played. Still only 24, presumably healthy in time for training camp and now in Year 3, Brown is poised for another big season — this time with Julio Jones replacing Corey Davis as his running mate in Tennessee. Jones should see more targets than Davis, at least on a per-game basis, but the 32-year-old also attracts more defensive attention, and his presence could inspire new OC Todd Downing to throw more passes than predecessor Arthur Smith. Regardless of what happens with the new guy, Brown should take the lead.
5.  
WR  MIN
Rec
95
Rec Yds
1390
Rec TD
11
Rec Avg
14.6
Rush Att
2
Rush Yds
12
Rush TD
0
Rush Avg
6.0
With Stefon Diggs sent off to Buffalo, the Vikings needed to find a reliable complement to Adam Thielen last season. It didn’t take long. Despite a limited offseason and training camp, and playing only 65 snaps combined in Weeks 1-2, Jefferson set the league on fire as a rookie, leading the NFL in YPT (11.2) by a mile and finishing fourth in receiving yards (1,400). At 6-1, 202, and with good speed (4.45), Jefferson is athletic, smooth and explosive. Despite getting only 125 targets (18th), Jefferson tied for the league lead in catches of 20-plus yards with 23. The only hole in his game was red-zone usage — he saw only 12 inside-the-20 targets, eight inside the 10 and two inside the five, while his less efficient teammate Thielen had 20, 13 and eight, respectively. It’s no wonder then that Thielen had 14 touchdowns on 108 targets to Jefferson’s seven on 125. Heading into 2021, Jefferson is firmly established as Kirk Cousins’ big-play receiver and likely top dog. Thielen is still solid and should reprise a prominent role, but the depth chart thins considerably after those two, so expect an increase in targets for Jefferson in Year 2.
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