This article is part of our Football Draft Kit series.
But not all red-zone touches are equal. In actuality, the red zone is an arbitrary section of the field — why not the 25, why not the 15? — that offers the possibility of a first down without scoring, meaning that touching the ball inside the 20 doesn't necessarily give a player the opportunity to score.
That's why using generic red-zone stats can be difficult and misleading. Not every red-zone play has the same chance of becoming a touchdown. A rushing attempt from the one-yard line has a much better chance of being converted into a touchdown than an attempt from the 19-yard line. For the same reason, red-zone targets don't tell us the whole story either, as a receiver being targeted at the 17-yard line isn't as helpful as one targeted in the end zone.
So, while a player's red-zone stats could look attractive, they don't necessarily give us the clearest picture. Let's dig a little deeper, then, to identify the players and teams that really do thrive in the red zone.
We'll leave receiving, for the most part, for another day and focus
But not all red-zone touches are equal. In actuality, the red zone is an arbitrary section of the field — why not the 25, why not the 15? — that offers the possibility of a first down without scoring, meaning that touching the ball inside the 20 doesn't necessarily give a player the opportunity to score.
That's why using generic red-zone stats can be difficult and misleading. Not every red-zone play has the same chance of becoming a touchdown. A rushing attempt from the one-yard line has a much better chance of being converted into a touchdown than an attempt from the 19-yard line. For the same reason, red-zone targets don't tell us the whole story either, as a receiver being targeted at the 17-yard line isn't as helpful as one targeted in the end zone.
So, while a player's red-zone stats could look attractive, they don't necessarily give us the clearest picture. Let's dig a little deeper, then, to identify the players and teams that really do thrive in the red zone.
We'll leave receiving, for the most part, for another day and focus on red-zone rushing, considering play location, team context, conversion rates and rush/pass tendencies.
PLAY LOCATION
Given that we have just as much information about what players and teams do inside the 10-yard line as we do inside the 20, isn't it more beneficial to focus on the area of the field that essentially requires a scoring attempt instead of offering a first down? If we focus our research to that smaller section of real estate, we get a better view of which players may or may not benefit versus what their red-zone stats tell us.
Highest Percentage of Red-Zone Rushes Inside 10-Yard Line
| PLAYER | RED ZONE RUSHES | RUSHES FROM 11-20 YARD LINE | RUSHES INSIDE 10 | % RUSHES INSIDE 10 | RUSHES INSIDE 5 | % RUSHES INSIDE 5 |
| Spencer Ware, KC | 16 | 4 | 12 | 75.0 | 8 | 50.0 |
| Jeremy Langford, CHI | 17 | 5 | 12 | 70.5 | 6 | 35.2 |
| Jeremy Hill, CIN | 38 | 12 | 26 | 68.4 | 15 | 39.4 |
| Latavius Murray, OAK | 33 | 12 | 21 | 63.6 | 8 | 24.2 |
| Cam Newton, CAR | 32 | 12 | 20 | 62.5 | 11 | 34.3 |
| Ryan Mathews, PHI | 16 | 6 | 10 | 62.5 | 6 | 37.5 |
| DeAngelo Williams, PIT | 46 | 18 | 28 | 60.8 | 16 | 34.7 |
| Matt Forte, CHI | 30 | 12 | 18 | 60.0 | 10 | 33.3 |
| Marshawn Lynch, SEA | 20 | 8 | 12 | 60.0 | 8 | 40.0 |
| Joique Bell, DET | 17 | 7 | 10 | 58.8 | 6 | 35.2 |
| Lamar Miller, MIA | 19 | 8 | 11 | 57.8 | 6 | 31.5 |
Ryan Mathews is an interesting case. He didn't get that many red-zone carries, but when he did they came close to the goal line. And he took advantage, rushing for five scores in that area. The closest player to that few inside-the-10 carries who also had five touchdowns was Spencer Ware, who helped replace an injured Jamaal Charles in Kansas City last year. Considering Ware's offensive coordinator last year, Doug Pederson, is now Mathews' head coach in Philadelphia, perhaps Mathews will get even more action at the goal line, especially with DeMarco Murray in Tennessee.
Red-zone carries are an important consideration when evaluating fantasy running backs, but more important, target those who get a higher proportion near the goal line.
TEAM CONTEXT
Note the only quarterback on the above list is Cam Newton, who consistently performs like a running back near the goal line.
Newton's backfield mate, Jonathan Stewart, led the league with 55 red-zone carries last season, but only 26 (47.2 percent) came from inside the 10, including 13 (23.6 percent) from inside the 5-yard line. Not only that, but Stewart accounted for only 45.6 percent of the Panthers' carries inside the 10 and 40.6 percent inside the 5, making him the only player in the top 10 in red-zone carries to have fewer than 50 percent of his team's carries in that range.
Put another way, Stewart had the same number of touchdowns inside the 10-yard line as Mathews.
So, not only do we want to focus on players who get a high number of their red-zone carries inside the 10 and 5, we also want players who get a high percentage of their team's opportunities from that distance.
T.J. Yeldon's struggles last season are well documented, but looking deeper at the Jags' backfield makes it even worse, as his 22 red-zone carries were 43.1 percent of the Jaguars' total. It wasn't a terribly high number, but it was more than Lamar Miller, C.J. Anderson and LeSean McCoy. However, only nine of those 22 carries came inside the 10 and only four were inside the 5.
That last number is the most troubling, as it tied him with quarterback Blake Bortles and trailed running backs Toby Gerhart and Denard Robinson, who each had five; 38.5 percent of Robinson's red-zone carries came inside the 5, while 71.4 percent of Gerhart's were from there. Making matters worse, the Jaguars added Chris Ivory in the offseason after he led the league in carries inside the 5-yard line last year.
There shouldn't be any concern about Yeldon having touchdowns vultured from him because he shouldn't be expected to get any touches from in close with Ivory in town.
Speaking of shared backfields, the Bengals used Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard fairly heavily in the red zone, but the split changed significantly as they got closer to the end zone. Hill's 38 carries inside the 20 were only eight more than Bernard's, but his 26 inside the 10 were double the latter's, and he led the split 15-3 inside the 5.
The raw red-zone numbers make their touchdown split look quite lopsided, as Hill scored 11 touchdowns on 38 red-zone carries while Bernard scored twice on his 30, but it becomes much more explainable when looking at their carries from closer distances.
| HILL | BERNARD | |
| RZ Rushes | 38 | 30 |
| RZ TDs | 11 | 2 |
| Inside 10 Rushes | 26 | 13 |
| Inside 10 TDs | 11 | 0 |
| Inside 5 Rushes | 15 | 9 |
| Inside 5 TDs | 3 | 0 |
With Hill likely to get more of the carries from in close, there's little reason to think he'll see his fantasy value decline despite Bernard still being around.
The Browns' backfield was a mess last season, but it was quite clear who the preferred running back was from in close: Isaiah Crowell, who had 29 carries in the red zone last year, good for 53.7 percent of the team's total. But it got better the closer the Browns got to the end zone, as he garnered 77.8 percent of the carries inside the 10 and 75.0 percent inside the 5.
Rookie Duke Johnson rushed only twice from inside the 5 last season, finishing with minus-5 yards and no touchdowns. However, Crowell's success left plenty to be desired, as he may have had 14 carries inside the 10-yard line, but he scored just twice, both from inside the 5 (on six carries).
Other players who were highly used by their teams in close (and therefore didn't have many touchdowns vultured) include Latavius Murray (84.0 percent inside the 10, 80.0 percent inside the 5), Adrian Peterson (68.4, 73.7), Danny Woodhead (64.3, 71.4), Todd Gurley (63.6, 66.7) and Frank Gore (62.5, 66.7).
Injuries in the NFL are impossible to predict, but it's certainly worth considering whether a backup will get the same opportunities as the starter when his team is close to the end zone. Despite losing Pro Bowl running back Jamaal Charles in Week 5, the Chiefs continued to run the ball inside the 10-yard line, doing so on 67.44 percent of their snaps from that range, the third-highest percentage in the league. By season's end, Charcandrick West had rushed 11 times from inside the 10, scoring three times, while the aforementioned Ware was even more productive. Even though Pederson left as offensive coordinator, the offense still belongs to head coach Andy Reid, and whoever has the job this season likely will get plenty of opportunities from in close.
CONVERSION RATE
In addition to finding players who actually get touches near the goal line, it's important to know who converts those opportunities and who does not.
Interestingly, while Chris Ivory had the most carries inside the 5-yard line, he scored only 29.4 percent of the time, the second-lowest mark of any player with at least 10 opportunities from that distance. The worst: Adrian Peterson (four touchdowns on 14 carries).
Highest Conversion Rate Inside the 5-Yard Line (min. eight attempts)
| PLAYER | RUSHES | TD | TD % |
| Cam Newton | 11 | 9 | 81.8 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 16 | 10 | 62.5 |
| Todd Gurley | 8 | 5 | 62.5 |
| Spencer Ware | 8 | 5 | 62.5 |
| Jeremy Hill | 15 | 9 | 60.0 |
| David Johnson | 10 | 6 | 60.0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 13 | 7 | 53.8 |
| Latavius Murray | 8 | 4 | 50.0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 8 | 4 | 50.0 |
| Doug Martin | 8 | 4 | 50.0 |
Lowsest Conversion Rate Inside the 5-Yard Line (min. eight attempts)
| PLAYER | RUSHES | TD | TD % |
| Chris Johnson | 8 | 1 | 12.5 |
| Matt Forte | 10 | 2 | 20.0 |
| Frank Gore | 8 | 2 | 25.0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 14 | 4 | 28.6 |
| Chris Ivory | 17 | 5 | 29.4 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 10 | 3 | 30.0 |
| Mark Ingram | 9 | 3 | 33.3 |
| DeMarco Murray | 9 | 3 | 33.3 |
| Three tied | 8 | 3 | 37.5 |
A backup entering the season, DeAngelo Williams was the most-heavily used and effective runner from inside the 10- and 5-yard lines. Despite Le'Veon Bell playing six games, albeit some cut short by injury, Williams still finished the season with more than 68 percent of the carries inside the 10-yard line and 64 percent inside the 5, scoring 10 touchdowns from short distance. Bell is expected to be healthy after season-ending knee surgery last year, but Williams' success from in close perhaps might have him poaching touchdowns.
TEAMS' RUN/PASS TENDENCIES
The play split between passing and running from in close is important, as certain teams fall heavily to one side, which obviously puts a bigger weight on whom to target in fantasy.
The Vikings ran the ball 36 times inside the 10-yard line last season while only throwing 16 times, with their six passing touchdowns from that distance ranking below all but three teams: the Chiefs (five), Bills (four) and Rams (one). Some red-zone play splits are fairly obvious, like the Peterson example, but there are a few that deserve some extra attention.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints have always been known as a passing team thanks to Drew Brees' prolific yardage numbers, but they actually ran much more than they passed from in close last year. The Saints were fifth in the NFL last season in rushing percentage inside the 10-yard line, with Mark Ingram, Tim Hightower and Khiry Robinson combining to score 13 touchdowns on 30 carries inside the 10, and their 15 rushing touchdowns inside the 10 co-led the NFL with the Panthers. Their top receiving weapon in the red zone was tight end Ben Watson, whose 16 targets made up 62.5 percent of Drew Brees' passes. However, he wasn't nearly as effective from inside the 10; yes, his four targets from that distance co-led the team, but he did so with two other players, while four others were targeted at least twice. Brees used Watson to move the ball in the red zone, but not necessarily to get into the end zone.
San Diego Chargers
Melvin Gordon was drafted by the Chargers to be their lead running back, but his significant struggles left him with just four carries inside the 10-yard line, five fewer than Danny Woodhead, who scored a touchdown on one-third of his nine carries. While the volume of touches wasn't great, Woodhead was 10th in the NFL in percentage of team carries inside the 10-yard line, ahead of players like Todd Gurley, Frank Gore, Lamar Miller, Matt Forte and Jeremy Hill. Additionally, Woodhead was the most-heavily targeted Charger in the red-zone passing game, getting nearly 21 percent of the targets inside the 20 and more than 38 percent inside the 10, the fifth-highest mark in the NFL.
Oakland Raiders
Latavius Murray received 84 percent of the Raiders' carries inside the 10-yard line, easily the highest percentage in the league. However, he only scored five times on his 21 attempts (23.8 percent). The Raiders apparently had no interest in using Murray in the passing game from in close, as he was targeted 53 times during the regular season but not at all inside the 10. Even worse, his zero targets from that distance tied teammate Amari Cooper, as Oakland's 16 pass attempts from inside the 10 were fewest in the league.
Chicago Bears
The Bears were nearly 50-50 in targets versus rushing attempts during the regular season, though they may need to give the ball more to Jeremy Langford, who scored six touchdowns on his 12 carries inside the 10, including five touchdowns on his six carries inside the 5. His 50-percent conversion rate tied him with Cam Newton, Todd Gurley and Ryan Mathews as the best among players with at least 10 touches from that distance, and his touchdowns inside the five trailed just five players despite Matt Forte getting more than 50 percent of the carries inside the 20, 10 and 5-yard lines.
Langford's success certainly helped the Bears, as top receiver Alshon Jeffery barely made an impact from in close. Jeffery was targeted 15 times in the red zone, but only three came inside the 10 and he failed to catch all of them. It was a fairly significant decline from 2014, when he was targeted 21 times in the red zone, including 16 from inside the 10 (five catches for four touchdowns). Jeffery may be the top receiver in Chicago, but without another big option in the passing game like Brandon Marshall, he's not prolific enough in the red zone to hope for a significant increase in per-game production.
Miami Dolphins
And while Jeffery's struggles came from his lack of use rather than a lack of catches, Jarvis Landry is the clearest example of the latter. Landry's 22 red-zone targets tied for eighth most (Allen Robinson) in the league, but 14 came inside the 10, which was the third-highest total. However, the players ahead of him were much more effective, as Landry's 14 targets turned into only two touchdowns. He saw just four targets inside the 10 the year before, but he scored three times. The opportunities are there for Landry, and if he can haul in a few more of those looks, he could take a major step forward in 2016.
Houston Texans
DeAndre Hopkins was targeted 23 times inside the red zone last season, tied for sixth most, and he turned half of his 12 catches into touchdowns. However, only seven of those targets were inside the 10-yard line, which means 70 percent of the passes thrown his way in the red zone came from a distance that still allowed the Texans to get a first down (and, consequently, not have to go for the end zone). The percentage of Hopkins' red-zone targets inside the 10-yard line was the lowest of any player with at least 20 RZ looks, and only Saints tight end Ben Watson posted a lower percentage among receivers with at least 16.
Looking deeper into Hopkins' red-zone looks, we also see that his share of targets in the red zone decreased when the Texans were inside the 10, as he was targeted on 31.1 percent of the throws inside the 20 but only 25.9 percent inside the 10. The Texans went to Alfred Blue more times (12 total, 11 carries, one target) inside the 10-yard line than Hopkins, and with Lamar Miller, who scored on four of his six carries inside the 5-yard line last season, now in Houston, it seems unlikely Hopkins will get more balls thrown his way when they are in close.
Arizona Cardinals
Hopkins is not the only receiver whose red-zone targets decreased as the team moved closer to the goal line. Cardinals wideout John Brown was targeted 18 times in the red zone last season, trailing team-leader Larry Fitzgerald by only three. However, the difference grew significantly after they crossed the 10-yard line, as Brown was thrown to only four times while two-thirds of Fitzgerald's red zone targets were inside that distance. Meanwhile, Michael Floyd garnered 13 red-zone targets last season and still finished with more (six) inside the 10 than Brown.
Fitzgerald's production inside the red zone was among the league's best, as his 21 targets were surpassed by just nine players. However, it was downright elite inside the 10, as Eric Decker (16) and Allen Robinson (15) were the only ones with more targets, and no one had more touchdowns. Floyd and Brown are back, but Fitzgerald's ability from in close shouldn't drastically change in the passing game. That said, he could see fewer looks thanks to the effectiveness of running back David Johnson. The then-rookie was used sparingly much of last season, but he finished with a bang and is one of the top players at his position entering this season.
One of the major selling points for Johnson is his effectiveness from in close: his 24 red-zone carries ranked 24th in the NFL, but the numbers improved as he got closer to the end zone, ranking 19th in carries inside the 10 and 10th inside the five. His six touchdowns inside the 5 were bettered by just three running backs (DeAngelo Williams with 10, Jeremy Hill with nine and Jonathan Stewart with seven), and with a full season of touches, it wouldn't be surprising if he led the NFL in rushing scores this year.
CONCLUSION
Researching and reviewing red-zone stats certainly helps us understand how teams try to score when they get close, but it's vital to understand how they play when they either have to score a touchdown or kick a field goal within the next four plays. Targeting the players who get touches inside the 10 or 5-yard lines is key to ensuring your fantasy team is filled with guys who are getting into the end zone and not just responsible for getting their teams close to the end zone.
