• Kenny Golladay's strong showing in Sunday's preseason game against the Colts shouldn't be dismissed. The way he played in that game is something consistent with his prospect profile, and there's every reason to believe it was a reflection of his real nature, rather than a preseason flash in the pan. Whether he serves a comparable function in the offense during the regular season is less clear, but should he receive a similarly prominent role, there's reason to think he'll keep producing.
This is a 6-foot-4, 218-pound wideout who took on a huge workload in college, earning disproportionately high shares of the targets at Northern Illinois, and in the process he showed strong efficiency despite poor quarterback play and stacked coverages. He was targeted on 147 of NIU's 400 passes last year – a percentage of 36.8. He turned those targets into 87 catches for 1,156 yards and eight touchdowns, good for an average of 7.9 YPT in an offense that averaged just 6.1 yards per pass when it didn't target Golladay. He ended the season with 37.5 percent of NIU's receptions, 43 percent of its receiving yardage, and 40 percent of its receiving touchdowns. That's a high volume in which to show such disparate efficiency from the rest of his team's pass catchers. His output shares in all receiving categories exceeded his already high target rate, which tells us that his skill set is likely strong.
With the skill set accounted for, the primary remaining consideration for his
• Kenny Golladay's strong showing in Sunday's preseason game against the Colts shouldn't be dismissed. The way he played in that game is something consistent with his prospect profile, and there's every reason to believe it was a reflection of his real nature, rather than a preseason flash in the pan. Whether he serves a comparable function in the offense during the regular season is less clear, but should he receive a similarly prominent role, there's reason to think he'll keep producing.
This is a 6-foot-4, 218-pound wideout who took on a huge workload in college, earning disproportionately high shares of the targets at Northern Illinois, and in the process he showed strong efficiency despite poor quarterback play and stacked coverages. He was targeted on 147 of NIU's 400 passes last year – a percentage of 36.8. He turned those targets into 87 catches for 1,156 yards and eight touchdowns, good for an average of 7.9 YPT in an offense that averaged just 6.1 yards per pass when it didn't target Golladay. He ended the season with 37.5 percent of NIU's receptions, 43 percent of its receiving yardage, and 40 percent of its receiving touchdowns. That's a high volume in which to show such disparate efficiency from the rest of his team's pass catchers. His output shares in all receiving categories exceeded his already high target rate, which tells us that his skill set is likely strong.
With the skill set accounted for, the primary remaining consideration for his prospect profile is his size-adjusted athleticism. At 6-foot-4, 218 pounds, Golladay is among the biggest receivers in the league, so the bar he needs to clear with his workout metrics is lower than it is for most other wideouts. And yet, his 4.50-second 40 is above the average in a vacuum, and all of his vertical jump (35.5 inches), broad jump (120 inches), and agility score (11.15) are all almost exactly the average for wideouts. Taking his build into account, Golladay's athletic tools are well above the average.
Skill set and athleticism are both strong grades for Golladay's projection. Opportunity is the remaining question for his fantasy value, and whatever level it comes out to could sway a wide range of outcomes. If Marvin Jones or Golden Tate get hurt, Golladay will be in position to push for the top-35 among fantasy wideouts for however long of a sample that might be. If Eric Ebron gets hurt, a similar result could occur, though it'd probably be less the result of general target volume and more to do with an increase in the percentage of his targets that occur within the red zone.
Both of those scenarios are decent enough bets to occur, in separate instances if not all at once. The price tag is about to go up on Golladay, but there really are worse investments you could make for your WR5 or WR6 in leagues with 12 or more teams.
• Ezekiel Elliott's six-game suspension gives Darren McFadden a major stock boost, but I doubt I'm going to end up with any shares from this point. I'd be surprised if he lasts past the 10th round in most leagues in light of Friday's news, but there's still enough that could go wrong with McFadden that I'll probably pass at that price. This is still a career underachiever with a profound injury history, and the team has no commitment to him that would insulate him from the possibility of a short leash if he should struggle. Besides, the Cowboys play four of the defenses I find among the most intimidating in the NFL to start the season – the Giants, Denver, Arizona, and the Rams (don't make me cape for Wade).
As far as Elliott's standing, I have no idea what to make of what could happen next and I'm probably not buying before the late third round as a result. For what it's worth, click here for a fairly comprehensive analysis of Elliott's league discipline and legal situation from SI's Michael McCann.
• I was fortunate to own few or no Elliott shares prior to Friday, but Sammy Watkins getting traded to the Rams hit my portfolio a bit. I have four Watkins shares among my 20 MFL10 leagues, and in none of those scenarios would have picked him had he been on the Rams at the time. I realize the Buffalo passing game was likely to be among the lowest-volume pass attacks in the league, but Tyrod Taylor is a much more efficient passer than Jared Goff, and there's even a good chance that Watkins sees a significantly lower target share with the Rams. The Bills had no depth whatsoever at receiver, whereas the Rams will likely give substantial playing time to Robert Woods and Tavon Austin, both of whom have big contracts.
New Rams coach Sean McVay might be a wizard, but he probably can't afford to be anything less than that after Goff's historically bad rookie season. To average just 5.3 YPA while completing just 54.6 percent of passes is remarkable – his passes were about as short as possible and he still just squeaked above the 50-percent mark.
• The Friday trades generally had me tilting, but one area of optimism for me is the projection of Zach Ertz. I think Jordan Matthews is merely a good-not-great player, but removing him from the Philadelphia target projections leaves a significant promotion for Ertz's level of activity.
Whereas the arrival of Alshon Jeffery somewhat threatened Ertz's target pace from last year, when he saw 106 in just 14 games, the departure of Matthews all but restores it. The remaining starting wide receiver, Torrey Smith, is a solid player but one whose skill set is oriented far downfield and on the sidelines. Matthews saw more work in the middle and underneath, so any targets that might have headed there should go primarily toward Ertz and Jeffery.
Heading into his age-26 season, Ertz should see a 16-game pace of around 125 targets. It may be generous to project a fully-healthy season for Ertz after he missed three games over the last two years, but it's important to note the unique upside he would have if he should stay healthy all year. It should surprise no one if Ertz hits the 1,000-yard mark this year. I had Ertz ranked about TE8 before the Matthews trade, but he's No. 4 for me now behind Gronkowski, Kelce, and Greg Olsen.
