DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: Shriners Open

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

Tournament Preview

The PGA Tour moves to the Vegas desert this week, with the tournament taking place at TPC Summerlin for the ninth cones utile year. It has proven to not only be quite the birdie-fest (fourth most birdies on tour last year at 1,701), but also an eagle-fest, with 50 in 2015. That's the second most in a tournament all last season, behind only Sedgefield CC, home of the Wyndham. And with only three par-5s on the par-71 track, that's remarkable. Nearly half of those eagles were recorded at the par-5 16th, part of a four-hole risk/reward closing stretch that begins with the 341-yard drivable 15th that saw nine eagles last year. The 17th is a par-3 and the 18th is a traditional par-4, both with water in the mix. So many birdies and eagles tend to produce more random results, and we've seen 10 first-time winners in the last 14 years, including defending champion Smylie Kaufman, who set a course record with a 61 on Sunday, coming from seven strokes back in the final round. Kaufman is back this year, along with a fairly weak field featuring no one in the top 15 of the OWGR and only four of the top 32: No. 18 Jimmy Walker, No. 22 Brooks Koepka, No. 24 J.B. Holmes and No. 32 Ryan Moore, the 2012 champion who heads a large Las Vegas contingent (2011 champ Kevin Na, Scott Piercy, Charley Hoffman, Nick Watney and 2015 runner-up Alex Cejka). Interestingly, the field was supposed to change to 132 from 144 as the tournament moved from October to November, but because of what the tour called a "clerical error," there are, in fact, 144 golfers. It will be hard to complete two rounds by Friday with sunlight waning just days before we set the clocks back, so perhaps golfers with late Friday tee times will be at a slight disadvantage. Weather-wise, the forecast calls for highs of about 80 every day with little wind and no chance of rain.

Key Stats to Winning at TPC Summerlin

• Driving accuracy
• Greens in regulation
• One-putt percentage (putts per GIR)
• Birdie or better percentage (BOB)

Past Champions

2015 - Smylie Kaufman
2014 - Ben Martin
2013 - Webb Simpson
2012 - Ryan Moore
2011 - Kevin Na
2010 - Jonathan Byrd
2009 - Martin Laird
2008 - Marc Turnesa
2007 - George McNeill
2006 - Troy Matteson

Champion's Profile

Looking back at the tournaments contested this decade, the winner has been someone who gets his tee ball in the fairway, gets the ball on the green and putts well. Yes, that's a recipe for success pretty much anywhere, but with so many low scores for the taking at Summerlin, it is essential here. Every winner since 2010 was among the top 18 in driving accuracy; Kaufman was seventh last year. He was 13th in GIR, but the three previous winners were all top-5. And each of the last six winners finished top-10 in putting average (putts per GIR), which is our putting stat of choice. Kaufman was third.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)

Tier 1 Values

Ryan Moore - $11,700 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 15-1)

Based on the last two years, (T43, MC), Moore surely doesn't warrant being the top guy on the DraftKings board, much less one of our picks. But he's certainly playing better lately, with top-25s in five of his last six starts. He was T9 in 2013 and won the tournament in 2012. Consider this a lukewarm recommendation, as this year the tournament was moved to take place after the tour spent two weeks in Asia, and Moore was there for both.

Brooks Koepka - $10,700 (20-1)

Koepka was in Asia for only last week. He missed the cut two of the last three years at Summerlin, sandwiching a T4 in 2014. Still, he's probably the best golfer in the field, knows how to play in the desert, having won at Phoenix last year, and is a birdie machine. He was fifth in BOB on tour last year.

John Rahm - $9,800 (25-1)

Although this is his maiden start in Vegas, Rahm played collegiately at Arizona State (in the desert). He is fresher than most of the 144, having played only once this fall, tying for 15th at the season-opening Safeway. Plus, he's good at golf.

Francesco Molinari - $10,100 (25-1)

Molinari's entry is a bit of a surprise, as he's never played Vegas before. But the Italian is among the world's straightest drivers and most accurate putters, and he's coming off a T6 last week in China.

Tier 2 Values

Kevin Na - $9,500 (25-1)

The Vegas denizen was among six runners-up to Kaufman last year and was the winner in 2011. Na has already teed it up three times, including the last two weeks in Asia. We don't like all the travel, but with his course history and local connection, we give him a mild recommendation.

William McGirt - $8,700 (50-1)

McGirt was T8 last year. He surely is fresh, having not started in six weeks. He wanted to play last week in Mississippi, but the tour wouldn't let him, since he had qualified for the WGC in China. So McGirt, a bulldog to begin with, should bring a little extra feistiness with him this week. Lastly, it does give us some pause that his odds are out of whack with his DraftKings price, as our next choice illustrates.

Tony Finau - $8,600 (30-1)

Finau hits the ball a ton, but is not very accurate off the tee. Still, he's managed to tie for 16th here last year and seventh the year before. As we often say, the Champion's Profile is only a guide. There are different ways to win a tournament.

Alex Cejka - $8,300 (60-1)

Cejka now makes his home in Vegas, where he was runner-up to Kaufman last year (despite horrid putting) and 18th the year before. He's accurate off the tee and was 17th on tour in BOB last year. He'll likely be a popular mid-tier pick, and for good reason.

Tier 3 Values

Ryo Ishikawa - $7,600 (60-1)

Ishikawa likely will be another popular DraftKings play, based his price, his runner-up standing at Summerlin in 2013 and, most importantly, his strong form. Ishikawa has four straight top-7s in his native Japan and, while the level of play there is obviously way below the PGA Tour, his most recent start resulted in a T10 at the CIMB Classic, which was chock full of PGA golfers.

Ben Martin - $7,600 (60-1)

Martin was the winner in 2014 and as tied for 25th last year. That's a good showing, as it's daunting for a golfer to defend his first title, returning to the tournament with lofty status. Martin was 18th last week in Mississippi and was top-30 in BOB on tour last season.

Nick Watney - $7,500 (60-1)

After missing most of last season, Watney returned with a better-than-respectable T35 at the Safeway. He's rested since then and now continues under a major medical extension. Watney has cashed top-16 in five of the last six years in Vegas, including T11 last when his back was not well and runner-up in 2011. He obviously likes to play in Vegas (really, who doesn't?).

Chad Campbell - $7,000 (100-1)

The UNLV grad was T8 last year and has made the cut at Summerlin every year but 2014. Campbell is among the more accurate drivers on tour.

Long-Shot Values

Ryan Blaum - $6,800 (100-1)

The Web.com Tour grad has never played Vegas. But he rewarded our faith last week with a T11 at the Sanderson, and we're jumping back on board. Plus, he was T26 in his previous start at the Safeway. Through those two events, and it's only two events, Blaum is 23rd on tour in SGP.

Adam Hadwin - $6,500 (Field, 7-2)

The Louisville grad by way of Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan, has no connection to Vegas, other than a T10 two years ago (and an MC last year). He was 22nd in BOB on tour last year. Hadwin is coming off a T21 at the CIMB two weeks ago.

Jason Bohn - $6,200 (Field, 7-2)

Something is out of whack here. Bohn was runner-up two of the last three years, top-20 each of the past four years and is among the most accurate drivers on tour. Yet he has a bargain basement price and Field odds. His current form is pretty bad, and that certainly matters.

J.J. Henry - $5,700 (Field, 7-2)

Henry has made three straight cuts here, with a best of T15 three years ago. And he obviously knows how to play in Nevada, winning in Reno in 2012 and '15. Henry is 2-for-2 in cuts this season.