DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: The Barclays

Tournament Preview

The four-event FedEx Cup playoffs begin with the Barclays, and right off the bat it is proving to be a tough one for gamers. Bethpage Black has played host to only three PGA tournaments through the years: the 2002 and 2009 U.S. Opens, and the 2012 Barclays. The two Opens, won by Tiger Woods in '02 and Lucas Glover in '09, are largely insignificant, based on time and course setup (much more penal then). But the '12 Barclays, won by Nick Watney by three strokes, still provides relevance. The current par-71 setup is similar to '12, which was much tamer than it was for the two par-70 Opens. One difference is the 553-yard 7th hole, now playing as a par-5, and it was one of the easiest par-5s on tour back in 2012. Look for birdies galore there, even eagles. Overall, the par-3s and par-4s proved difficult to birdie in 2012, while the par-5s were score-able. Overall, Bethpage played as the 15th toughest course out of 49 in 2012 -- not quite as hard as you'd expect based on its reputation. Watney won with a total of 10-under. He had 23 birdies and one eagle, which is quite a lot. Of course, that also means he had plenty of bogeys. He played the par-5s at 8-under. The Barclays takes the top 125 golfers in the regular-season point standings, but four five golfers are skipping the event: Sergio Garcia (20th in points), Danny Willett (75th), Shane Lowry (87th) and Anirban Lahiri (117th). The first three will be eligible for next week's Deutsche Bank Championship, which takes the top 100, but Lahiri's season is over.

Key Stats to Winning at Bethpage Black

• Driving accuracy
• Greens in regulation
• Proximity to the hole
• One-putt percentage (putts per GIR)

Past Champions

2015 - Jason Day
2014 - Hunter Mahan
2013 - Adam Scott
2012 - Nick Watney
2011 - Dustin Johnson
2010 - Matt Kuchar
2009 - Heath Slocum
2008 - Vijay Singh
2007 - Steve Stricker
2006 - Vijay Singh

Champion's Profile

When we think of Bethpage Black, we think of this incredibly long behemoth of a course. That may have been the case for the two Opens, but it was far less penal in 2012. In fact, some of the game's shortest hitter fared quite well, with Brian Harman and Graeme McDowell tying for fifth and Luke Donald and William McGirt tying for 10th. And Brandt Snedeker, a mid-range hitter, was runner-up to Nick Watney. On the other hand, Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson were both top-10 finishers. Taking a look at some of the stats from that week, Watney was 29th in distance and a decent 15th in fairways, but this is where he won the tournament: He was second in greens in regulation and 11th in putts per GIR. Snedeker actually had poor numbers from tee to green, but was fourth in scrambling and tied Watney at 11th in putts per GIR. Johnson and Sergio Garcia tied for third, and they took different paths to get there. Johnson, of course, hit the ball far, though not straight, but he was strong in GIR (seventh) and proximity to the hole (fifth). His putting failed him then, but he is far better at it now. Garcia was third in fairways hit and fourth in GIR. In sum, while there's more than one way to win at Bethpage, GIR seems the most prudent path to success.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)

DraftKings Tier 1 Values

Dustin Johnson - $11,900 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 7-1)
Henrik Stenson - $11,700 (10-1)
Jordan Spieth $11,000 (15-1)
Brooks Koepka - $10,100 (25-1)

DraftKings Tier 2 Values

Phil Mickelson - $9,700 (25-1)
Adam Scott - $9,500 (30-1)
Bubba Watson - $9,100 (30-1)
Brandt Snedeker - $8,900 (30-1)
Jim Furyk - $8,600 (30-1)

DraftKings Tier 3 Values

Zach Johnson - $8,100 (60-1)
Luke Donald - $7,500 (80-1)
Kevin Na - $7,300 (60-1)
Russell Knox - $7,300 (50-1)

DraftKings Long-Shot Values

David Lingmerth - $6,800 (100-1)
Billy Horschel - $6,700 (80-1)
Kevin Kisner - $6,400 (80-1)
J.B. Holmes - $6,400 (80-1)

MY PICKS THIS WEEK

Lower-Risk Cash Game Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)

Jordan Spieth - $11,000
Bubba Watson - $9,100
Brandt Snedeker - $8,900
Luke Donald - $7,500
David Lingmerth - $6,800
Kevin Kisner - $6,400

In this lineup, there are six golfers we like a lot. Didn't say "love," said "like." Spieth -- remember him? He really has had trouble off the tee this season: not especially long and not at all straight. That's not a good combination. But he still somehow piles up the top-10s, and now he's at a more affordable price, well behind the top four. Would it surprise anyone if he won? Watson tied for 10th in 2012 (and 18th in 2009). He, too, is at a very favorable price. Hard to believe there are 12 golfers costlier than him (including Rickie Fowler???!!). For all his waywardness off the tee, Watson is 20th on tour in GIR. Snedeker was runner-up in 2012, and he's on form, with top-5s in two of his past three starts. As for Donald, we originally didn't think he'd be a good fit for Bethpage. Then we saw his T10 from 2012. Do we think he can win? No. But his masterful short game should serve him well. Lingmerth seems a steal at $6,800. Not only does he have four top-25s in his past five starts, but he's putting far better than at the start of the season. Kisner is also a premier putter, and he's been on a roll as well, recently playing his best golf in months. His price seems far too low.

Higher-Risk Tournament Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)

Dustin Johnson - $11,900
Henrik Stenson - $11,700
Paul Casey - $7,300
Russell Knox - $7,300
Johnson Wagner - $5,800
Brian Stuard - $5,500

Here, we are loading up with two studs, then adding in two sleepers and two Hail Mary's. There's not much convincing needed for Johnson and Stenson. Johnson played Bethpage superbly in 2012 and should be rejuvenated after his stumble in the PGA Championship. Stenson is the current hottest player going (it seems to change often, doesn't it?) and is a tee-to-green machine. Both of their prices reflect their play, and we now need to get creative to fill out our lineup. Casey didn't play in 2012. He's had a so-so-season. But he's turned in top-20s in three of his past four starts, driving the ball accurately followed up by strong GIR numbers. His putting has been pretty bad, however. Knox drives the ball straight, gets on the green and putts well. That sounds like a good golfer. Wagner missed the cut in 2012, but enters with a pair of T5s his last two starts. There is something to be said for being on form, and we've seen guys get hot around this time of year. Plus, he's eighth on tour in GIR. What nice things do we have to say about Stuard, at $5,500 tied for the lowest price in the field? Well, he made the playoffs. And he's among the most accurate drivers -- sixth on tour. And he's made three straight cuts, including the PGA. We're simply hoping for a fourth. Oh, and he's also won this year.