This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
THE HONDA CLASSIC
Purse: $6.6M
Winner's Share: $1.188M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, Fla.
Course: PGA National (Champion)
Yardage: 7,140
Par: 70
2017 champion: Rickie Fowler
Tournament Preview
The Florida Swing begins this week, if we can even call it that anymore. It's all of three events, and not even in a row. After the Honda, the Tour heads to the WGC-Mexico before returning for the Valspar and Bay Hill. There is only one more tournament in Florida all season -- The Players. A lot of the pros are happy to be back in the Sunshine State, where it's warmer and they don't have to deal with all the funky grasses of the West Coast. They love putting on Bermuda. They may love being in Florida, but PGA National is no picnic. It's annually one of the toughest tracks the golfers will play all year, and eight of the 11 years since the tournament moved there, the winning score has been single digits under par. Rickie Fowler was the only golfer in double digits last year, winning by four at 12-under. And when Camilo Villegas won at 13-under in 2010, he was five clear. In other words, only once in 11 years has more than one golfer reached 10-under in the same tournament.
Why is PGA National so hard? Let us count the ways: water on 16 holes, more than 100 bunkers, wind normally exceeding 15 mph. We see a lot of birdie-fests early in the season; this week is all about bogey avoidance. Really, it's about double- or triple-bogey avoidance, because bogeys are largely unavoidable. Fowler even had four bogeys and a double in his final round last year.
The catchy little phrase this week is The Bear Trap, as more and more courses like to coin cute little names for their treacherous stretches. Here, it's 15 to 17, with two par-3s sandwiching a par-4. To be sure, those holes are not easy, but -- and this is little comfort to the golfers -- they aren't the hardest holes. Last year, 6, 14 and 2, all long par-4s, took that honor. But with 15-17 so close to the finish, and with water on every full-length shot, we understand the trepidation. Interestingly, the par-5 18th is among the easiest holes on the entire Tour.
According to DraftKings, Fowler heads the field that drops a tick from last week at Riviera. Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy join him as three of the top-10 in the OWGR are on hand, along with 10 of the top-25. Tiger Woods is back, and there is more of a decision to make this week. Last week, he had an inflated price ($8,800) at a track he's historically played poorly. Predictably, he missed the cut. This week, Woods has a more manageable price ($8,200), but again at a track he's historically played poorly. Woods' driver has been all over the place in his first two tournaments back. Like most golfers, Woods' driver will stay in the bag more this week, but with water all around, we are hesitant to go anywhere near Tiger. Woods last played here in 2014, when he withdrew with back spasms just five holes from the finish. He does have one good result at the Honda, a runner-up to McIlroy in 2012.
Weather-wise, a very typical forecast: temperatures in the 80s, a little chance of rain and, most importantly, wind consistently in the double-digit mph.
Key Stats to Winning at PGA National
Note - The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key stats" follow in importance.
• Driving accuracy
• Greens in regulation/strokes gained approach
• Scrambling/strokes gained around the green
• Bogey avoidance
Past Champions
2017 – Rickie Fowler
2016 - Adam Scott
2015 – Padraig Harrington
2014 – Russell Henley
2013 – Michael Thompson
2012 – Rory McIlroy
2011 – Rory Sabbatini
2010 – Camilo Villegas
2009 – Y.E. Yang
2008 – Ernie Els
Champion's Profile
Looking at last year's leaderboard, most guys in the top-10 had at least one double-bogey or even a triple-bogey. It's all about minimizing mistakes, because they simply cannot be avoided at PGA National. Some guys are better suited for that type of golf. Boring golf pays dividends this week. Hit the ball in the fairway, get it on the green, take your par or occasional birdie and head to the next tee. But getting it on the green is no easy task at the Honda. That's why scrambling is so important this week. last year, Rickie Fowler and co-runners-up Gary Woodland and Morgan Hoffmann all finished top-10 in scrambling. The year before, the top-8 finishers were all top-12 in scrambling. Fowler also happens to be a great putter, but great putting has not been a requirement for winning at PGA National. That's what makes Fowler doubly tough this week.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
Rickie Fowler - $11,700 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 10-1)
We wrote this last year and we are able to write it again: "Fowler leads the Tour in bogey avoidance." He's also among the game's elite scramblers. Really, for all the supposed orange flash, he's a pretty steady, boring golfer. That may hurt him in a lot of places, but not at PGA National. Fowler's win last year was his third top-10 in this event, and he has two other top-25s.
Justin Thomas - $11,300 (10-1)
Thomas has played six tournaments in 2017-28 and all six have resulted in top-25s. At $11,300, we're going to need more than a top-25 to get a proper return on our investment. Thomas is coming off a T9 last week at Riviera, another course where there are not many birdies out there. Thomas has learned to tone down his wild-swinging game, and now sits 37th on Tour in bogey avoidance. He has missed the cut in two of this three visits to PGA National, sandwiched around a T3 in 2016. We expect something a lot closer to the T3 than a missed cut.
Sergio Garcia - $10,500 (15-1)
Garcia is making his 2018 stateside debut as he begins the final stages of his Masters victory lap. He has done well at PGA National, with top-15s in three of the past four years. Garcia is another guy you don't necessarily view as a steady player, but when you put aside some of his antics through the years, he really is. This will be Garcia's first action since a T32 in Dubai a month ago. The week before, he won the Singapore Open.
Alex Noren - $10,100 (30-1)
This will be Noren's fourth PGA Tour start in the past five weeks, and he finished in the top 25 in each of his first three. He's obviously a fast learner at tracks he'd never played before, and he's also a steady player, ranked T25 in bogey avoidance. Noren is also 40th in scrambling.
Tier 2 Values
Gary Woodland - $9,700 (25-1)
Woodland is the rare player who hits it far off the tee yet is accurate. He's ranked a decent 74th in driving accuracy but a spectacular second in greens in regulation. That last part is important, since Woodland is not a great scrambler. Woodland was co-runner-up here last year and is coming off a win three weeks ago at Phoenix.
Brian Harman - $8,900 (40-1)
Harman missed the cut his last time out at Torrey Pines, but we can excuse that after such a torrid start to 2017-18. Harman notched top-10s in his first five events of the season, then added a T20 at the CareerBuilder. He's been a mixed bag at the Honda, with a two top-15s, two poor cashes and two MCs in six tries. We're banking on Harman continuing his strong play this season. He's ranked fourth in greens in regulation, 11th in scrambling and 12th in bogey avoidance.
Jason Dufner - $8,600 (50-1)
Dufner is up $1,100 from last year, but we're still buying. He's 8-for-8 in cuts through the years at PGA National, with four of them top-20s, including last year's T14. Dufner is ranked 18th in bogey avoidance. And it can't hurt that he's third in strokes gained putting.
Webb Simpson - $8,300 (50-1)
Simpson hasn't played here in years, since a T24 in 2011. But we like his makeup for this course. He's ranked fifth in bogey avoidance and sixth in scrambling.
Tier 3 Values
Chesson Hadley - $7,700 (60-1)
Hadley has two top-25s in three career visits to the Honda. Overall this season, he's made all nine cuts with five top-25s. Hadley is ranked 15th in bogey avoidance and 21st in greens in regulation.
Ryan Palmer - $7,300 (80-1)
Palmer has made six straight cuts at PGA National, including last year, when he was experiencing shoulder trouble that led to surgery. He's already met the demands of his major medical extension with a T20 at the CareerBuilder and then a playoff loss at Torrey Pines. Palmer is ranked T25 in bogey avoidance and 41st in strokes gained approach.
Graeme McDowell - $7,300 (60-1)
McDowell surely does love PGA National, with top-15s in five of the past seven years. He really didn't have much to hang his hat on entering Riviera last week, with four straight worldwide missed cuts. But he played well all week until a back-nine fade left him T26. McDowell is ranked 19th in strokes gained around the green.
Patton Kizzire - $7,300 (60-1)
Only $7,300 for the lone multiple winner on Tour this year? Yes, please. Kizzire has made 8-of-9 cuts with five top-25s. Remember, we don't need another win to make this pick pay off. Kizzire is ranked seventh in bogey avoidance, eighth in greens in regulation and 33rd in scrambling.
Long-Shot Values
Sam Saunders - $7,100 (100-1)
Saunders has top-30s in his last four starts. He hasn't played the Honda a lot, but he has two top-20s there, most recently in 2016. Saunders is ranked 33rd on Tour in strokes gained total.
Luke Donald - $7,000 (150-1)
There aren't many tracks to take Donald anymore. This is one of them. He's 7-for-7 in cuts at PGA National with four top-10s. Donald had missed three straight cuts until a T37 last week at Riviera, another track where birdies are scarce.
John Huh - $7,100 (125-1)
Huh has already teed it up 10 times this season. He's missed three cuts, but two of them were his first two events back in October. Huh also missed the cut last year at PGA National, but turned in consecutive top-20s before that. He is ranked 44th in driving accuracy.
Stewart Cink - $6,800 (150-1)
Cink is in the odd position of going 7-for-7 in cuts at PGA National but never securing a top-25 (he was T27 and T26 the past two years). So, if you are looking for a bargain-basement price with a really good chance to make the cut, Cink is your man. He's also ranked 30th on Tour in bogey avoidance, one reason he keeps making all those cuts here.
