This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
I'm making a slight adjustment to the preview format this week, specifically to the "one-and-done" section, which previously centered around an "optimal" pick and "buyer beware" pick. While the latter will stick around, for now, I'm ditching the "optimal" pick in favor of a three-tier platform. The tiers will be broken into highly owned, moderately owned and slightly owned. The ownership levels are estimates, of course, but after doing this for 20-some years, I have a pretty good feel for ownership levels.
The value of this system, as I see it, is it gives you, the reader, differing options depending on where you stand in your league. If you are at the top, then highly owned is probably the way go. If you are mid-pack, then you could go with a moderately owned golfer and give yourself a chance to make a move without taking too much of a risk. If you are in catch-up mode, you'll likely want to focus on the lightly owned option.
This week: Genesis Open - Riviera Country Club, Pacific Palisades, Calif.
Last Year: Bubba Watson shot a final-round 69 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Kevin Na and Tony Finau.
FAVORITES
Dustin Johnson (9-1)
DJ was a 5-1 favorite last week, but his track record at Pebble Beach was stronger and the competition wasn't quite as fierce. That said, this is a spot for a classic bounce-back as Johnson was just off his game last week, and guys at his level have
I'm making a slight adjustment to the preview format this week, specifically to the "one-and-done" section, which previously centered around an "optimal" pick and "buyer beware" pick. While the latter will stick around, for now, I'm ditching the "optimal" pick in favor of a three-tier platform. The tiers will be broken into highly owned, moderately owned and slightly owned. The ownership levels are estimates, of course, but after doing this for 20-some years, I have a pretty good feel for ownership levels.
The value of this system, as I see it, is it gives you, the reader, differing options depending on where you stand in your league. If you are at the top, then highly owned is probably the way go. If you are mid-pack, then you could go with a moderately owned golfer and give yourself a chance to make a move without taking too much of a risk. If you are in catch-up mode, you'll likely want to focus on the lightly owned option.
This week: Genesis Open - Riviera Country Club, Pacific Palisades, Calif.
Last Year: Bubba Watson shot a final-round 69 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Kevin Na and Tony Finau.
FAVORITES
Dustin Johnson (9-1)
DJ was a 5-1 favorite last week, but his track record at Pebble Beach was stronger and the competition wasn't quite as fierce. That said, this is a spot for a classic bounce-back as Johnson was just off his game last week, and guys at his level have a tendency to get things fix sooner rather than later. As for his track record here, it's not too shabby. DJ has one win and four other top-5s in his last seven starts at Riviera.
Justin Thomas (12-1)
Many high-end players are in the field this week, some of whom have very strong track records at this event. That makes Thomas' position as the second favorite a little puzzling. Puzzling not because of his game, but because of his track record here, which isn't strong. Thomas finished in the top 10 at this event last year, but prior to that, he failed to crack the top 30 in any of his three starts.
Rory McIlroy (12-1)
A little odd to see McIlroy up this high as well, as he's failed to crack the top 10 in either of his two starts at this event. He does have two top-20s, but that's generally not the resume of a second favorite at an event where many elite golfers are on hand.
MID-TIER GOLFERS
Tiger Woods (18-1)
This isn't one of Tiger's "spots," in that he hasn't won this event five times or anything like that, but he does have a solid track record here. Woods has teed it up here eight times since 1997 and finished in the top 20 all eight times. He's yet to win this event, but he does have two runner-ups on his resume. He wasn't in great form when we last saw him, but he wasn't in poor for either. It's undoubtedly a leap of faith to go with Tiger this week, but he obviously has enough to win.
Bubba Watson (20-1)
If you believe in patterns, then Watson is most certainly not your man this week as he only wins here in even-numbered years. But unless there's a reason he fails to perform well as the defending champ, there's plenty to like about Watson this week. For starters, he's won this event three times. That's actually enough right there, but I'll also add that he finished T4 in his most recent start.
Jordan Spieth (25-1)
Mickelson is also in this range, and while I liked him at 25-1 last week, I can't see him pulling off a double at this stage in his career. Instead, I'll go with Spieth, who continues to get better each year but can't quite seem to get over the hump. It will happen at some point, and as long as he continues to improve, his floor and ceiling will continue to rise.
LONGSHOTS
Paul Casey (30-1)
Casey has a tendency to go on some insanely hot runs, and in case you missed it, that run looks to have started last week at the AT&T. Casey's track record here isn't great, but he managed a runner-up in 2015, which shows he can get around this track with efficiency.
Sung Kang (80-1)
Kang will obviously have trouble getting on top of a field like this, but even if he doesn't win, he should fare well. Why is that? Well, his track record here is pretty solid, with three top-25s in four starts at this event and has finished in the top 20 in three of his last four starts on the PGA Tour.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Highly Owned Pick: Bubba Watson - Most fantasy owners know to use Watson early in the season, and with the possible exception of the Masters, this is probably the best spot. With three wins in his last six starts here, he will be highly owned, however, which means that you'll likely just be keeping pace with the leaders this week, or perhaps holding onto your lead.
Moderately Owned Pick: Dustin Johnson - DJ wasn't quite as popular last week as I thought he would be, which means that it's likely many owners are saving him for a major, specifically the U.S. Open, and if that's the case, there should be some opportunity with him this week. DJ likely will bounce back this week, but using him in this spot means you think he'll finish first or second against a loaded field.
Lightly Owned Pick: Sung Kang - Perhaps you've used a lot of big names already and it's time you pulled it back a notch. If that's the case, then Kang could be your man as he's quite adept at finishing in the top 25 here. With some luck, he could score a top-10, and you might be the only one with him on your squad this week.
Buyer Beware: Justin Thomas - He's the second favorite this week, but his track record here leaves a lot to be desired. Thomas is good enough to win anywhere at any time, but using him this week would be a reach as there are several spots for him later in the season.
Last Week: Dustin Johnson (T49) - $20,919; Season - $2,675,818
This Week: Bubba Watson - Considering the firepower I've used already and the poor results that have followed, you'd think that I'd already be scrambling for a lightly owned golfer, but it's way too early to panic, which means I'm going with the chalk this week. Well, the chalk when it comes to one-and-done pools. With any luck, DJ, JT and Rory will be highly owned, and I can make up some ground, but I doubt that will be the case.
FANDUEL PICKS
High/Mid/Low: Paul Casey ($11,000)/Bubba Watson ($10,700)/Sang Moon Bae ($7,100)
SURVIVOR PICK
Last week: Dustin Johnson - (T49); Streak - 5
This week: Bubba Watson - The double-up continues to work as though DJ struggled to the finish last week, he did make the cut. Watson has failed to finish in three of his last eight starts, but only one of those was a missed cut. The other two with withdrawals, which obviously can't be predicted. If Watson were off of his game, I wouldn't use him in this spot, but since he's playing well now, he's a pretty safe pick.
