Golf Draft Kit: 2015-16 Sleepers & Busts -- Fall Update

The 2015-16 Sleepers and Busts were updated following the fall schedule.

SLEEPERS

Paul Casey - With two playoff losses in the 2014-15 season and a FedEx Cup Playoffs run that saw him finish 13th in the final FedEx Cup standings, Casey probably doesn't make for a sleeper in some eyes. He's listed here because he is expected to give up his European Tour membership and focus solely on the PGA Tour, which will give him more than the 24 PGA Tour starts he made last season. The fact that he also lost in two playoffs, has overcome injuries and ranked fifth in greens in regulation and 10th in strokes gained-total last season doesn't hurt, either.

Fall Update: Most important is what Casey decided off the golf course: he did indeed give up his European Tour membership to focus on the PGA Tour and will not make the European Ryder Cup team. On the course, he made two fall starts, tying for 24th at the CIMB Classic in Malaysia and tying for 23rd the next week in Shanghai.

Keegan Bradley - Swing changes are always a weird thing, with some flourishing immediately (Phil Mickelson at The Players the week after switching to Butch Harmon, for example), and some struggling for long stretches (Tiger Woods). Bradley, close friends with Jason Dufner, switched from Jim McLean to Chuck Cook after watching Dufner's dominating performance at the 2013 PGA Championship. It didn't work, however, and Bradley hasn't won since the 2012 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. He's shown flashes of good play after the change back to McLean, finishing T25 at the Deutsche Bank Championship and T28 at the BMW Championship before bowing out of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. He finished the season 14th in strokes gained-tee to green, and even with the anchoring ban looming, a big year for him could be coming.

Fall Update: Bradley missed the cut in Las Vegas before tying for 47th in Malaysia and tying for eighth at Mayakoba. If he keeps playing like he did in Mexico, 2016 may turn out to be a good year -- he was T13 in greens in regulation that week.

Patrick Rodgers - Overlooked in the last month or so because of a quirk in PGA Tour regulations that prohibited him from participating in the FedEx Cup Playoffs as a non-member, Rodgers pulled off a heck of a feat in 2015: turning pro with almost no status and STILL managing to earn his card in THREE ways: via the Web.com Tour's 25 leading regular-season money winners, the PGA Tour Non-Member FedEx Cup points list and the PGA Tour Non-Member money list. His results were stout: T2 at the Wells Fargo Championship and third at the Barracuda Championship with 12 made cuts in 17 starts. In those 17 events, he was ninth in driving distance, 24th in birdie average and 44th in total driving. He is one to watch.

Fall Update: Rodgers had a sensational fall, contending in nearly all of the five events he played. He went T6-T13-T20-T10-T44, earning more than $513K and 259 FedEx Cup points, which has him 13th on the FedEx Cup Points list at the moment. Rodgers looks poised for a huge year, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him with several PGA Tour wins when it's all set and done.

Emiliano Grillo - This first-year player has a ton of game. One of the losers in the five-man playoff earlier this season at the Puerto Rico Open (fellow Web.com Tour Finals graduate Sam Saunders was another), Grillo earned enough points through that event and other finishes to make it to the Finals, where he won in style in the final-round of the final event, capping off a four-event run where he went 9-T2-missed cut-1, a dazzling stretch of golf that proves how much talent this man has. At TPC Sawgrass he was T4 in driving accuracy, 17th in driving distance, T1 in greens in regulation and 14th in putts per GIR. And he has momentum headed into this season. PGA Tour: watch out.

Fall Update: Well, this has already been a smashing success. Grillo won the Frys.com Open in his first start of the year on the PGA Tour, earning basically a three-year exemption, a trip to the Masters, Maui, The Players, the PGA and so much more. It's the start of a good season for both him and anyone whose fantasy league included fall events.

Cameron Smith - Smith left the U.S. Open at Chambers Bay a big winner. He nearly made an albatross on the 72nd hole, tapping in for an eagle that led to a T4 finish that clinched his PGA Tour card for the 2015-16 season via the Non-Member FedEx Cup points list. Lost in all that is that Smith nearly won on the PGA Tour last fall, at the CIMB Classic in Malaysia where he tied for fifth. He also tied for 15th at the RBC Heritage and tied for 18th at the Wyndham Championship. He ranked 21st in greens in regulation and 18th in putts per green in regulation at the U.S. Open. This Australian may take a while to get familiar with the venues here in the U.S., but don't be surprised if he sneaks up and wins this year. He's that good.

Fall Update: Smith's PGA Tour career has started slowly, as he missed his first two cuts before tying for 37th at the CIMB Classic in Malaysia and tying for 64th at the WGC-HSBC Champions in Shanghai. Noteworthy, however, is that he went home November and December and finished T36-T13-5 in Australia. Familiarity will breed confidence for Smith, and as he plays more in the U.S., expect that trend to continue on the PGA Tour in 2016.

Harold Varner III - The first African-American to earn his card via the Web.com Tour, Varner's on-the-course play should not be overlooked. He has the potential to be THE superstar to come out of the Web.com Tour. While he didn't win in 2015, he was consistently good. He finished second in his first start of the season, the Panama Claro Championship, and notched two other top-10s and nine top-25s in 25 starts. He eanred the 25th and final card from the Web.com Tour regular-season money list and had a solid Web.com Tour Finals, going T22-T16-T16-missed cut. At 48th in total driving and 38th in the all-around ranking, Varner has the potential to win in 2015-2016 if he can putt a little better and hit more fairways (he ranked 111th and 102nd in those two categories, respectively).

Fall Update: Varner's rise in the Reshuffle List to fifth -- the sign of a strong fall campaign -- came virtue of a T5 in Mayakoba with three other money finishes. The finish at Mayakoba included a Friday 62. Varner, one of the most talked about rookies on the PGA Tour this year because of his outgoing and engaging personality, has the game to back it up, too. At the OHL Classic he ranked third in driving distance and T8 in driving accuracy, a nice combination. For the season he ranks 32nd in ball-striking. That work has led to more guaranteed starts in the beginning of 2016. He also lost in a playoff late in the year at the Australian PGA -- more added experience to go on this season.

BUSTS

Martin Kaymer/Victor Dubuisson/Lee Westwood - This is not what you think it is, and it comes with an asterisk as a result, though none of these players had good seasons. Each either lost or gave up PGA Tour membership for 2015-16. Kaymer and Dubuisson didn't play the required 15 events (Dubuisson also failed to keep his card), while Westwood is voluntarily giving up his card. So, keep in mind you'll only see these players at the majors, World Golf Championship events and occasional regular PGA Tour events, usually surrounding majors and WGCs.

Fall Update: Their overall situation is still the same, though it's worth pointing out that Kaymer tied for 10th in Dubai, Dubuisson won in Turkey and Westwood finished second in Thailand in fall, showing that each of these players ended 2015 playing well. So while they may not be good week-to-week players, watch their incoming form for majors and WGCs.

Adam Scott - Come Jan. 1, anchored putting will be illegal. While belly and long putters are still legal, and can be used if held away from your body, most players don't seem to be interested in putting that way. Scott tried to revert to the shorter putter early in 2015 -- he putted that way for years, including at his Players win -- but struggled mightily, and switched back to the long putter for most of the season. He finished the 2014-15 PGA Tour season ranked 158th in strokes gained-putting, 183rd in 3-putt avoidance and 183rd, 181st and 182nd from putts from three, four and five feet, respectively. That all added up to just three top-10s in 15 starts. With a mandatory change now looming and Steve Williams' status as his caddie uncertain, don't expect big things from Scott this season.

Fall Update: Scott finished second in Malaysia and had fifth- and second-place finishes in Australia to end his 2015 season. That's significant -- none were with the anchored putting style -- and he'll need to build on that momentum to have a successful putting season in 2016. Ultimately, though, it's still way too early to decide if Scott will be a bust.

Jimmy Walker - Walker has a weird trend going with his wins: they all come early in the year, all pre-Augusta: the Frys.com Open (first event of the season), two Sony Open titles (second event of the new calendar year), Pebble Beach (February) and the Valero Texas Open (usually two weeks before the Masters). For the 2014-15 PGA Tour season, for example, 1,652 of 2,014 regular-season FedEx Cup points he earned came before Augusta. If your league is big on wins, go with Walker. If your league is big on long-duration consistency, he might not be the one you want.

Fall Update: Walker made one start in fall, tying for 50th in Las Vegas.

Graeme McDowell - Yes, it's a Ryder Cup year, but McDowell's recent performances have just not been good. He doesn't have a win since the 2014 French Open on the European Tour and hasn't won on the PGA Tour since the RBC Heritage in 2013. Last season, he had one third-place finish, his only top-10 and had just one other top-25 finish in 15 starts. He didn't play enough rounds to be ranked in any statistical categories by the PGA Tour, but his strokes gained-total average of -.418 would have ranked him 146th of 185 golfers. There's too much inconsistency in his game. It's that simple.

Fall Update: Apparently, it wasn't that simple. McDowell won the OHL Classic at Mayakoba and backed that up with a third-place finish at the RSM Classic. The Mexico win was really impressive, as it came on a Monday in utterly brutal weather where he grinded it out, shot 66 and then hit a dazzling shot into 18 on the first layoff to set up a short birdie for a crucial PGA Tour victory. He ranked fourth in putts per GIR that week.