This article is part of our PGA Tour Stats Review series.
The 2015-16 PGA Tour season begins a two-week Asian Swing this week with the CIMB Classic from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. This is a unique field, with a mix of PGA Tour regulars and some Asian Tour members you won't recognize. Let's delve into it through stats.
Stars: Known-Unknown - Our weekly look at the field and who should start or not start, all based on stats.
Sergio Garcia/Adam Scott/Ernie Els - SIT. These three have something in common: they didn't have very good 2015 seasons. Garcia, the 11th-ranked player in the world, hasn't won anywhere in the world in the last year and besides his playoff loss at The Players, didn't really sniff victory anywhere. He also finished T4 at the Northern Trust Open and T6 and sixth at The Open Championship and the European Masters. Why the poor results? Consider that he ranked 12th in strokes gained-tee to green on the PGA Tour last year but 112th in strokes gained-putting and 117th in one-putt percentage. That's ever more frustrating because he ranked 13th in scoring average. Those putting issues showed up on Sundays where he was 117th in final-round scoring average. Not someone you want to start this week until he shows better form.
Adam Scott's putting issues have been well documented. He has to abandon anchoring by the end of 2015 and had a poor year putting with a shorter putter when he attempted to change early, having to switch back to the long putter at one point.
The 2015-16 PGA Tour season begins a two-week Asian Swing this week with the CIMB Classic from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. This is a unique field, with a mix of PGA Tour regulars and some Asian Tour members you won't recognize. Let's delve into it through stats.
Stars: Known-Unknown - Our weekly look at the field and who should start or not start, all based on stats.
Sergio Garcia/Adam Scott/Ernie Els - SIT. These three have something in common: they didn't have very good 2015 seasons. Garcia, the 11th-ranked player in the world, hasn't won anywhere in the world in the last year and besides his playoff loss at The Players, didn't really sniff victory anywhere. He also finished T4 at the Northern Trust Open and T6 and sixth at The Open Championship and the European Masters. Why the poor results? Consider that he ranked 12th in strokes gained-tee to green on the PGA Tour last year but 112th in strokes gained-putting and 117th in one-putt percentage. That's ever more frustrating because he ranked 13th in scoring average. Those putting issues showed up on Sundays where he was 117th in final-round scoring average. Not someone you want to start this week until he shows better form.
Adam Scott's putting issues have been well documented. He has to abandon anchoring by the end of 2015 and had a poor year putting with a shorter putter when he attempted to change early, having to switch back to the long putter at one point. As we wrote in the Draft Kit sleepers/busts, "he finished the 2014-15 PGA Tour season ranked 158th in strokes gained-putting, 183rd in three-putt avoidance and 183rd, 181st and 182nd from putts from three, four and five feet, respectively. That all added up to just three top-10s in 15 starts." Until I see more from him, I don't recommend him this week.
Els just didn't have a good year, period. Now a staggering 161st in the world, Els' best worldwide finish this calendar year is a tie for 12th in Abu Dhabi all the way back in the beginning of 2015. And other than a T13 at Bay Hill, he hasn't come anywhere close to contending. Statistically, he was 149th in driving accuracy, 140th in greens in regulation, 105th in strokes gained-tee to green and 173rd in strokes gained-putting. Ouch.
Henrik Stenson - START. Stenson is eager to get his year started on a good note, and his play during the FedEx Cup Playoffs -- 2-2-T10-T2 -- showed that his game was rounding into form. He didn't win in 2015, but ended the PGA Tour season ranked 12th in driving accuracy, first in greens in regulation, second in strokes gained-tee to green, 16th in strokes gained-tee to green and first in strokes gained-total. That's right, he beat Jordan Spieth in something! Look for him to start hot this week in Malaysia.
Ryan Moore - START. Let's be honest -- he should start for many reasons, mainly that he's going for a three-peat. This golf course clearly fits his eye. Last season was a tale of two halves essentially. The fall and spring included his win, a fifth in Tampa and a tie for ninth at Doral. However, the rest of the year only saw one other top-10 finish -- at Greensboro -- and many middle-of-the-road finishes. However, we can't look past his form on this course, where last year he shot two weekend rounds of 67 and ranked T8 in greens in regulation and fourth in putting per greens in regulation. This season, he's gone T10 at Frys and T43 in Las Vegas, and we like him again this week.
Justin Thomas - START. Thomas looks SO close to getting his first PGA Tour win and a limited field in Malaysia could be the golden ticket. He finished one shot out of the playoff at the Frys.com Open, ranking 12th in strokes gained-tee to green, 19th in strokes gained-putting and T3 in strokes gained-total. In a limited field off good form, this could very well be the week Thomas finally comes through in the clutch on Sunday.
Luke Donald - SIT. Prior to a T5 at the British Masters, Donald hadn't really shown any flashes of his former world No. 1 self recently, with his best finishes prior to that two T7s at Hartford and the Scottish Open. For the season on the PGA Tour he was 129th in driving accuracy, 115th in greens in regulation, and 77th in strokes gained-tee to green, all not good figures. Without knowing if the British Masters is a fluke or the start something bigger, we recommend sitting him and waiting until he shows more consistent form.
Two other notes: A) Patrick Reed tied for third last week at the Hong Kong Open. For some reason the European Tour website isn't giving stats for him, but for someone who has struggled for consistency for much of 2015, shooting 65-67 on the weekend is good stuff and could be a good trend leading into this week.
B) Anirban Lahiri, who had the short missed putt on the 18th hole against Chris Kirk that at the Presidents Cup that contributed to the United States winning once again, finished T7 last week in Hong Kong. We won't make a recommendation here but if you think the hangover from Korea is over, you may want to start him. Like Thomas, he's got the game that'll win on the PGA Tour really soon.
Unknown
Any of the Asian Tour players. No offense to any of these guys, but with Kiradech Aphibarnrat -- who has played so well on this golf course in recent years -- not playing, we don't have enough information or frankly confidence to recommend any of them. And in many of your leagues, you will probably not have the option to start these players anyway. Bottom line: stick with the PGA Tour regulars.
