PGA Tour Stats Review: Entering the Masters

It's finally here, the first major of 2015: the Masters! So as the best players in the world -- including Tiger Woods -- go down Magnolia Lane, here is our stats preview.

But First, a Laugh

For many of you, Masters Week may be the most tense week when it comes to fantasy and picks. So we thought we'd start off this week's column with a laugh. This exchange from Saturday at the Houston Open, folks, is why Johnson Wagner (not in the field this week) is not a smart fantasy choice (courtesy of ASAPSports.com):

Q: Are you fully exempt?

JOHNSON WAGNER: No, 150th on the list. I shuffled up to third or fourth in that status. I feel comfortable to get 18 to 20 starts this year. I've had a few sponsors exemptions already. I'm getting plenty of golf. I get to play Tiger's schedule, 15, 20 events, make $10 million.

Q: This [being in contention going into Sunday] is a big for you in a lot of ways.

WAGNER: Absolutely. Absolutely. It's good to play good. My goal starting the year was to win again. I don't really care if I miss every cut and if I win one tournament, it will be a successful year. I've always wanted to win golf tournaments.

History Lesson

The defending champion, and the man who also won in 2012, is Bubba Watson. He's obviously a popular pick this week, on form both recently at Augusta and on the PGA Tour, where he's gone 10-T2-T14-3 in his four starts this season. He ranks second in driving distance, fifth in strokes gained-tee to green and third in strokes gained-total, all crucial stats this week where driving has become increasingly important due to course changes.

The man who finished second last year was Jordan Spieth, who is the hottest golfer on the planet. He won in Tampa, finished second at Valero and lost in a three-way playoff last week to J.B. Holmes and Wagner in Houston. I was golfing yesterday and my playing partner alerted me to this stat that Spieth has owned recently: he's fifth in putts from 15-20 feet, making 30.77 percent, and second in putts 20-25 feet, making 29.41 percent. That's really impressive stuff.

Spieth is my pick to win, and both are fantastic fantasy selections.

Adam Scott won in 2013, but he's had putting problems this year and is going back to the long putter for this week and the remainder of the season, it appears. Why the change? Consider that his strokes gained-putting average is -.633. Now he hasn't played enough rounds -- just 10 -- to be ranked, but that total would put him 188th of 207 players. Ouch. I just haven't seen enough out of him lately to trust Scott and to recommend him.

Everyone Else

Jason Day is getting a lot of attention, and rightfully so. He won in San Diego this year and has a second-place finish at Augusta in 2011. On the PGA Tour this year he ranks third in greens in regulation and 16th in strokes gained-total.

Now to the big three: Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson. To me, while Tiger and Phil are obvious possibilities, their games have been way too inconsistent, especially Tiger's. And even with the good vibes seen from Mickelson last week in Houston and Tiger so far this week on the range, I don't think you can pick them.

McIlroy's form lately is not too sparkling, either. Yes, he's finished T9 and T11 at Doral and Bay Hill respectively, but those were both back-door types of deals where he kind of snuck in at the last moment on Sunday. The stat that has gotten a lot of attention is par-5 scoring average, where his 4.67 average would put him T97 if he played enough rounds to qualify. To win at the Masters you must take advantage of the par-5s. If he does that, he'll be in contention. If not, he may well be heading home without a green jacket, and the shot at a career grand slam postponed to another year.

Sleepers

I have three sleepers this year. The first is Russell Henley, who finished fourth last week in Houston and nearly won in Kapalua in January. His best finish at Augusta is only 31st, but I have a feeling he may contend this week. He ranks 16th in strokes gained-putting.

My super sleeper is Steve Stricker, who is making his first start anywhere since December. He had offseason surgery to address a back/hip problem and is sure to be rusty. But experience matters around this place, and with the type of short game Stricker has -- he's always one of the best putters on tour -- this could be his week.

But my real sleeper is Anirban Lahiri. Already with two wins this year on the European Tour, the 34th-ranked player in the world could be that international player who rises up early in the week with no one really expecting him to contend. As I wrote in my latest Reshuffle List column, "He hits a lot of fairways (63 percent), hits a lot of greens (75 percent) and is averaging 1.71 putts per GIR, which has him ranked 23rd on the European Tour. He can play."

Is ShotLink Coming to Augusta?

The short answer: we don't know. But as evidenced by these two screen grabs, I noticed something interesting when my Masters app updated last week for 2015:

That sounds a whole lot like ShotLink/some sort of precise shot-tracking technology, and as Twitter user discovered, it looks like there's a web component as well. Come Thursday, we'll find out if the stats revolution that's seen at all PGA Tour events and came to the PGA Championship last year has finally reached the Masters.