This article is part of our PGA Tour Stats Review series.
This week the PGA Tour moves to Hilton Head for the RBC Heritage. And yet again, the story is Jordan Spieth. But the question this week: is winning the Masters a reason to sit a guy? Here's our stats preview:
History Lesson
The defending champion is Matt Kuchar who, on the help of a holed bunker shot on the 72nd hole, defeated Luke Donald by one. In 2013, Graeme McDowell defeated Webb Simpson in a playoff and in 2012 Carl Pettersson beat Zach Johnson by five.
Our only recommendation out of this group is Johnson, who tied for ninth at Augusta, shooting weekend rounds of 68-68. That's now two top-10s in his last three starts, and this golf course -- short and tight -- fits his game perfectly. He was tied for sixth in driving accuracy and tied for seventh in greens in regulation last week at the Masters.
RBC Leads the Charge
Loyal readers of this column will recognize this section. At both here and the RBC Canadian Open, the PGA Tour contingent sponsored by RBC -- one of the largest sponsors -- show up in force. In the field this week are Graham DeLaet, Donald, Ernie Els, Jim Furyk, Adam Hadwin, David Hearn, Kuchar, McDowell, Nick Taylor, Brandt Snedeker and Mike Weir.
Our pick here is Els. He tied for 22nd at Augusta, his second top-25 finish in his last three starts, though he never shot in the 60s again after an opening 67. Last week was an
This week the PGA Tour moves to Hilton Head for the RBC Heritage. And yet again, the story is Jordan Spieth. But the question this week: is winning the Masters a reason to sit a guy? Here's our stats preview:
History Lesson
The defending champion is Matt Kuchar who, on the help of a holed bunker shot on the 72nd hole, defeated Luke Donald by one. In 2013, Graeme McDowell defeated Webb Simpson in a playoff and in 2012 Carl Pettersson beat Zach Johnson by five.
Our only recommendation out of this group is Johnson, who tied for ninth at Augusta, shooting weekend rounds of 68-68. That's now two top-10s in his last three starts, and this golf course -- short and tight -- fits his game perfectly. He was tied for sixth in driving accuracy and tied for seventh in greens in regulation last week at the Masters.
RBC Leads the Charge
Loyal readers of this column will recognize this section. At both here and the RBC Canadian Open, the PGA Tour contingent sponsored by RBC -- one of the largest sponsors -- show up in force. In the field this week are Graham DeLaet, Donald, Ernie Els, Jim Furyk, Adam Hadwin, David Hearn, Kuchar, McDowell, Nick Taylor, Brandt Snedeker and Mike Weir.
Our pick here is Els. He tied for 22nd at Augusta, his second top-25 finish in his last three starts, though he never shot in the 60s again after an opening 67. Last week was an out-of-nowhere performance for Ernie, as his PGA Tour season ranks are AWFUL: 139th strokes gained-tee-to-green, 119th in strokes gained-putting and 141st in strokes gained-total. At Augusta, however, he tied for second in par-5 birdie leaders and just seemed to have a good vibe going around that place, and while vibes aren't a stat, it's good enough for our recommendation this week, on a course where precision matters.
Who Is Playing
And this brings us to Spieth. He's playing for the fourth week in a row, attempting to go 1-2-2-1-1, which would be a very Tiger Woods-like streak. He was in New York City from Monday afternoon-Tuesday afternoon, only getting to Hilton Head Tuesday night at 10 p.m. He was excused from the pro-am and isn't planning on playing one hole before his opening tee shot Thursday afternoon. He also admitted he is tired, but felt he owed it to the event to follow through with his commitment.
So while he was No. 1 in strokes gained-putting last week among those who made the cut -- and that could help him this week if his game is not sharp -- we just cannot pick him. As reliable as Spieth is -- and as impressive as he was last week -- we believe he will hit that energy wall and either miss the cut or just not contend.
Others in the field include Daniel Berger, Jason Dufner, Bill Haas, Russell Henley, Charlie Hoffman, Billy Horschel, Ian Poulter, Patrick Reed, Sam Saunders, Webb Simpson and Justin Thomas.
We have two picks here. The first is Hoffman, who opened everyone's eyes at Augusta, contending all week before eventually finishing T9, backing up with a Sunday 74. He was unofficially fourth last week in strokes gained-putting.
The other pick is Berger, but for a different reason. The Honda Classic playoff loser is 69th in the Official World Golf Ranking, with this week being the cut-off for entry into the World Golf Championships-Cadillac Match Play to be played in two weeks. Berger is 26th in both strokes gained-tee-to-green and strokes gained-total. He's destined to have a good week and make it into the top 64.
