This article is part of our PGA Tour Stats Review series.
Match Play is a weird phenomenon, as things tend to happen that don't happen in other formats. As Tiger Woods likes to point out, you can shoot 66 and lose and 76 and win. So a stats column for this week's World Golf Championships-Cadillac Match Play isn't an easy thing to put together as sometimes the stats ... lie. But here are a few stats-related ideas to consider.
(Note: this year's new format resembles the World Cup, with pool play leading to a normal-bracket beginning with the round of 16.)
• The bottom left portion of the bracket is stacked. Brooks Koepka, Russell Henley, Rickie Fowler, Graeme McDowell, Harris English, Bubba Watson and Keegan Bradley are all strong ball strikers, with Miguel Angel Jimenez always there to remind us that even as a player old enough for the Champions Tour, he can still contend on the PGA Tour. Three of those players rank in the top 25 in strokes gained–tee to green.
• There's a really interesting potential round of 16 matchup between Jordan Spieth and Patrick Reed, which would be a re-match of the Valspar Championship playoff that Spieth won. But first, Reed needs to get past his group that includes Ryan Moore, a player usually forgotten but who ranks 17th in driving accuracy, 31st in strokes gained-tee to green and 23rd in strokes gained-total.
• The Jason Day-Zach Johnson-Brendan Grace-Charley Hoffman group is fascinating because it's two players you know and two you may not know but have
Match Play is a weird phenomenon, as things tend to happen that don't happen in other formats. As Tiger Woods likes to point out, you can shoot 66 and lose and 76 and win. So a stats column for this week's World Golf Championships-Cadillac Match Play isn't an easy thing to put together as sometimes the stats ... lie. But here are a few stats-related ideas to consider.
(Note: this year's new format resembles the World Cup, with pool play leading to a normal-bracket beginning with the round of 16.)
• The bottom left portion of the bracket is stacked. Brooks Koepka, Russell Henley, Rickie Fowler, Graeme McDowell, Harris English, Bubba Watson and Keegan Bradley are all strong ball strikers, with Miguel Angel Jimenez always there to remind us that even as a player old enough for the Champions Tour, he can still contend on the PGA Tour. Three of those players rank in the top 25 in strokes gained–tee to green.
• There's a really interesting potential round of 16 matchup between Jordan Spieth and Patrick Reed, which would be a re-match of the Valspar Championship playoff that Spieth won. But first, Reed needs to get past his group that includes Ryan Moore, a player usually forgotten but who ranks 17th in driving accuracy, 31st in strokes gained-tee to green and 23rd in strokes gained-total.
• The Jason Day-Zach Johnson-Brendan Grace-Charley Hoffman group is fascinating because it's two players you know and two you may not know but have solid games. Consider that Hoffman is 53rd in greens in regulation and Grace is the 39th-ranked player in the world with three wins on the European Tour since last December. That group is quietly stacked.
• Jimmy Walker-Ian Poulter is going to be a fantastic group match. Two guys who love match play, played well in the Ryder Cup and have a determined streak about them.
• And finally, my dad says that someone around 40th in the world will win this week. Brendon Todd is 43rd in a group that includes Henrik Stenson, Bill Haas and John Senden. There's something to be said for that -- Match Play always seems to have a way to allow random, in some people's eyes, players to get traction. One example that comes to mind is Shane Lowry's takedown of Rory McIlroy a couple years back in the first round. Todd, a PGA Tour winner who just finished fourth at the RBC Heritage could fit the bill. He's 27th in strokes gained-tee to green, 20th in strokes gained-putting and 15th in strokes gained-total.
My winner this week? Dustin Johnson defeats Jordan Spieth in the championship match.
