This article is part of our PGA Tour Stats Review series.
Ah it's the dawn of a new day and the start of a new PGA Tour season! Welcome back to the fantasy stats thread, where we look at every PGA Tour event through the prism of statistics. We got new players, we got familiar players, and we got some legends all vying for the coveted first title of the year at the Frys.com Open. Here we go.
History Lesson
The defending champion is Sang Moon-Bae. As has been well-chronicled, Bae began his 22-month mandatory military service immediately following the Presidents Cup, taking away his chance at defending his title. Last year he defeated Steven Bowditch by two shots. Jimmy Walker won in 2014 by two over Vijay Singh and in 2013 Jonas Blixt won by one over Jason Kokrak and Tim Petrovic.
Coincidentally, Bowditch and Walker played each other in Sunday Singles at the Presidents Cup last week, with Bowditch winning 2-up. Bowditch is in the field and we recommend him, while Walker is taking the week off.
Bowditch was as much as 2-down in the match (through 8), before making a big comeback around the turn and contributing to the surge the International team made to make it close in the end. That's got to be a good feeling coming into this week. Additionally, Bowditch shot weekend rounds of 67-67 last year in this event, so he's got good vibes coming in if he can get over the jetlag. The winner at the Byron Nelson last season, none of
Ah it's the dawn of a new day and the start of a new PGA Tour season! Welcome back to the fantasy stats thread, where we look at every PGA Tour event through the prism of statistics. We got new players, we got familiar players, and we got some legends all vying for the coveted first title of the year at the Frys.com Open. Here we go.
History Lesson
The defending champion is Sang Moon-Bae. As has been well-chronicled, Bae began his 22-month mandatory military service immediately following the Presidents Cup, taking away his chance at defending his title. Last year he defeated Steven Bowditch by two shots. Jimmy Walker won in 2014 by two over Vijay Singh and in 2013 Jonas Blixt won by one over Jason Kokrak and Tim Petrovic.
Coincidentally, Bowditch and Walker played each other in Sunday Singles at the Presidents Cup last week, with Bowditch winning 2-up. Bowditch is in the field and we recommend him, while Walker is taking the week off.
Bowditch was as much as 2-down in the match (through 8), before making a big comeback around the turn and contributing to the surge the International team made to make it close in the end. That's got to be a good feeling coming into this week. Additionally, Bowditch shot weekend rounds of 67-67 last year in this event, so he's got good vibes coming in if he can get over the jetlag. The winner at the Byron Nelson last season, none of his stats really jump out at you but he did rank third in scrambling and first in total hole-outs from off the green for the season, showing a deft short game.
A Look Into the Field
There's basically three classifications of players playing this week:
The Turkey 8
Eight players who played a then-unofficial event in Turkey in 2012 cut a deal with the PGA Tour to play the Frys.com Open at least once in next three years. This is the final year to fulfill that obligation, which means Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose, Webb Simpson and Charl Schwartzel are in the field this week. Tiger Woods was supposed to be here too – but he had another back surgery.
Out of those guys we recommend McIlroy and Rose. Simpson hasn't shown much form of late -- and he's been working on getting comfortable with the shorter putter with the anchoring ban looming in just over two-and-a-half months -- and Schwartzel is making the long trip back from The Presidents Cup. Although he played well after initially being sick, that's too much jetlag for me.
McIlroy is angry. As he recovered from his ankle injury, he saw Jason Day win two majors and two FedEx Cup Playoff events and Jordan Spieth win the Tour Championship and the FedEx Cup, and said it motivated him to remind everyone why he is part of the Big 3. He didn't play like himself after the injury –- take the BMW Championship, for example, where he was 69th in strokes gained-putting compared to 21st in his win at Quail Hollow –- but with a couple weeks to rest and gear up, we like him this week on a Silverado track that will reward sharp ball striking, a McIlroy specialty. While he didn't qualify to be ranked on the PGA Tour stats categories this past season, his 1.855 strokes gained–tee to green number would have had him second.
Rose, meanwhile, finished the season strong from June on in, losing in the playoff at Memorial, tying for 27th at the U.S. Open, and then going on a stretch of T6-T4-T3-4-T16-missed cut—T13-T2 to end the season. Statistically he ranked ninth in greens in regulation and sixth in both strokes gained–tee to green and strokes gained-total last season.
Other Known Players
Brooks Koepka, rookie of the year Daniel Berger, Kevin Chappell, Tim Clark, Graham DeLaet, Tony Finau, James Hahn, Brian Harman, Jarrod Lyle, Hideki Matsuyama, Sam Saunders, Brandt Snedeker, Camilo Villegas, and Justin Thomas are all in the field.
Out of those players we especially recommend Koepka who, while classy on social media, has to feel like he has something to prove after Jay Haas went with J.B. Holmes as the injury replacement pick for Jim Furyk on the Presidents Cup team over Koepka. He got his first win last season in Phoenix on Super Bowl Sunday, and finished the year ranked eighth in driving distance, 17th in strokes gained-putting and 15th in strokes gained-total.
The Rookies & First-Year Players
This is the first shot for the new class of PGA Tour rookies and other first-year players to make a mark on the PGA Tour. Out of all those players we recommend Emiliano Grillo, and Rhein Gibson, who have momentum from the Web.com Tour Finals.
Grillo, who fell short in the five-man playoff in the Puerto Rico Open last season on the PGA Tour, won the Web.com Tour Championship two weeks ago, birdieing the 72nd hole to defeat Chez Reavie. For the week he ranked T4 in driving accuracy and T1 in greens in regulation.
Gibson, meanwhile, has momentum following a run of T21-T9-4 in the last three Web.com Tour Finals events. For the year he ranked 13th in putting average and 20th in birdie average.
Also watch out for Patrick Rodgers. A regulations quirk kept him out of the FedEx Cup Playoffs and he's antsy to begin his time as a PGA Tour member.
