This article is part of our PGA Tour Stats Review series.
Welcome to this week's stats column for the Shriners Open in Las Vegas, the second event on the 2015-16 PGA Tour season. This column has a new look for the new season, so let's get going.
But First, A Note About Rory
Rory McIlroy finished T26 last week at the Frys.com Open, a week in which he ranked 71st in strokes gained-putting, losing a total of -4.294 shots to the field. That's been a troubling trend since his return from injury. His strokes gained-putting rankings since coming back at the PGA: 67th, 69th, 48th, seventh in a 30-player field at the Tour Championship (that also happened to be his only time in these five starts that he was in positive figures for SGP) and now 71st.
McIlroy next plays on the PGA Tour at the HSBC Champions event in Shanghai in a couple weeks, but if you participate in European Tour fantasy, that's something to keep in mind for sure as the Race to Dubai Playoffs near.
Known and Unknown
So the stats thread is going to take on a slightly different look this season. We're going to highlight several headliners (i.e. Tiger Woods, Jordan Spieth), PGA Tour regulars (guys like last week's runner-up Kevin Na for example), and five people casual fans might not recognize -- and the next couple weeks some of the rookie and first-year players that we're all getting to know -- and tell you if you should start them or not start them, based on
Welcome to this week's stats column for the Shriners Open in Las Vegas, the second event on the 2015-16 PGA Tour season. This column has a new look for the new season, so let's get going.
But First, A Note About Rory
Rory McIlroy finished T26 last week at the Frys.com Open, a week in which he ranked 71st in strokes gained-putting, losing a total of -4.294 shots to the field. That's been a troubling trend since his return from injury. His strokes gained-putting rankings since coming back at the PGA: 67th, 69th, 48th, seventh in a 30-player field at the Tour Championship (that also happened to be his only time in these five starts that he was in positive figures for SGP) and now 71st.
McIlroy next plays on the PGA Tour at the HSBC Champions event in Shanghai in a couple weeks, but if you participate in European Tour fantasy, that's something to keep in mind for sure as the Race to Dubai Playoffs near.
Known and Unknown
So the stats thread is going to take on a slightly different look this season. We're going to highlight several headliners (i.e. Tiger Woods, Jordan Spieth), PGA Tour regulars (guys like last week's runner-up Kevin Na for example), and five people casual fans might not recognize -- and the next couple weeks some of the rookie and first-year players that we're all getting to know -- and tell you if you should start them or not start them, based on stats, of course.
Rickie Fowler - START. Fowler had a hot end the 2014-15 PGA Tour season, going MC-1-T4-T12 in the FedEx Cup Playoffs, and ending the season ranked 26th in strokes gained-tee to green, 35th in strokes gained-putting, 15th in strokes gained-total, 17th in birdie average, 21st in scoring average and eighth in the all-around ranking. He's playing in Vegas because he's seen the importance of getting a head start, AND because he gets some time to work with his instructor Butch Harmon, which he did on Tuesday. We really like him this week.
Jimmy Walker - SIT. Walker's strong play usually starts in fall and ends before The Masters. That stretch is, after all, where all his wins have occurred. So in that sense, Walker could be a nice pick. But statistically, we don't like him this week. His recent play his horrible: he has just ONE top-10 finish since his win at the Texas Open two weeks before Augusta, a T2 at the AT&T Byron Nelson. He ended the year ranked 180th in driving accuracy and 101st in greens in regulation. Don't be fooled by good strokes gained rankings. In his end of season stretch, they weren't good either. Take the T69 at The Barclays, for example, where he ranked 68th in strokes gained-tee to green and 37th in strokes gained-putting. He's just not sharp, and going 1-3-0 in the Presidents Cup two weeks ago doesn't help either.
Emiliano Grillo - START. Put the victory hangover aside for a moment. From a stats point of view, last week's winner at the Frys.com Open is a sharp choice. He ranked T17 in birdies (18), T8 in driving accuracy, T16 in greens in regulation, T1 in strokes gained-tee to green (he gained 12.756 on the field in that department) and T1 in strokes gained-total. He's now won twice in three weeks, making 25 footers to either win or get into a playoff. Impressive stuff. (He didn't putt well, setting the record for the largest disparity in the strokes gained era between his tee to green and putting ranks for a winner. But if he keeps this mojo going, don't be surprised if he overcomes that again and contends.)
Keegan Bradley - START. Bradley hasn't had a win since the Bridgestone Invitational in 2012, but has showed improve form of late since his move back to Jim McLean as his swing coach. As we wrote in this year's Sleepers/Busts article, "He's shown flashes of good play after the change back to McLean, finishing T25 at the Deutsche Bank Championship and T28 at the BMW Championship before bowing out of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. He finished the season 14th in strokes gained-tee to green, and even with the anchoring ban looming, a big year for him could be coming." Watch for that to start this week.
Smylie Kaufman/Patton Kizzire/Tyrone Van Aswegen - START. These are three of the "newer" names you'll see on leaderboards this season, and all are impressive players. Kaufman, a rookie on the PGA Tour, won on the Web.com Tour early in the year and then promptly started his PGA Tour career last week with a T10 at the Frys.com Open, ranking third in birdies (22), 14th in strokes gained-tee to green and 28th in strokes gained-putting for the week. For your first time out learning a new golf course? Impressive.
Van Aswegen, who got his card back for the 2015-2016 season, impressed with a T3 finish -- one shot out of the playoff -- at the Frys.com Open after spending the morning in the hospital feeling ill. For the week he ranked T9 in greens in regulation, 15th in strokes gained-tee to green, and eighth in strokes gained-putting.
Kizzire won the regular-season Web.com Tour money title and had two wins. He's fully exempt, not subject to the Reshuffle List, which should put him in a more relaxed frame of mind. For the year on the Web.com Tour he ranked eighth in greens in regulation, first in putting average, first in birdie average, first in scoring average and second in the all-around ranking.
Webb Simpson - SIT. Simpson won this event in 2013 (his last PGA Tour win), but has struggled big time the last several years. Ranked 57th in the world, Simpson tied for second at Quail Hollow, his best chance for a win in 2015. He also finished T6 in Greensboro. But mixed in were a bunch of mediocre finishes and missed cuts, with putter holding him back. He was seventh in strokes gained-tee to green and 53rd in greens in regulation, but a stunning 174th in strokes gained-putting, losing an average of -.646 strokes per round to the field due to a balky putter. With the anchoring ban looming on New Year's Day and a push to feel comfortable before then, we don't like him this week.
Ben Martin - SIT. Martin is the defending champ but has underwhelmed since the victory. His 2015 was wildly inconsistent, with no real shot at victory (though he had a fourth and a fifth), and statistically didn't stand out anywhere, ranking 34th in greens in regulation, 90th in strokes gained-tee to green and 105th in strokes gained-putting. Not great.
Go Low - Birdie Average
You gotta go low in Vegas, with birdie average being a key stat this week. Here's the 2014-15 PGA Tour leaders in birdie average in the field this week: Tony Finau, Jimmy Walker, Brendan Steele and Jason Bohn.
