This article is part of our PGA Tour Stats Review series.
Let's be honest: this week's stats thread – and everything involving this week's WGC-Mexico Championship – is a mystery. Except for the highest-ranked Mexican in the world, Roberto Diaz, no one has played this course, and no one has seen it – on TV or otherwise – until they arrive this week. So there's a lot of quick learning that has to go on this week, and we'll see what we can add with our research.
But First, Rickie
It was a weird win for Rickie Fowler, a four-shot, finally-a-victory-again win that wasn't easy at times and included some wayward shots on Sunday. So what sealed the deal? Thank his putter. He was 57 of 57 for the week inside 7 feet and finished the week ranked second in strokes gained–putting along with being 10th in strokes gained–off the tee and a surprising 12th in driving distance at 303.9 yards per drive (his 340 yard drive on Saturday on 18 was utterly mammoth). The question with Fowler will continue to be about getting it done in the clutch — he finally converted a 54-hole lead after being 0-for his last four — and when will he do it in a major. This will certainly help.
What is Club de Golf Chapultepec?
That's the venue this week, and here's what I've discovered about it:
1. It's at elevation. Big time elevation: 7,780 feet. This is probably going to be as elevated a golf course the PGA Tour has played since the
Let's be honest: this week's stats thread – and everything involving this week's WGC-Mexico Championship – is a mystery. Except for the highest-ranked Mexican in the world, Roberto Diaz, no one has played this course, and no one has seen it – on TV or otherwise – until they arrive this week. So there's a lot of quick learning that has to go on this week, and we'll see what we can add with our research.
But First, Rickie
It was a weird win for Rickie Fowler, a four-shot, finally-a-victory-again win that wasn't easy at times and included some wayward shots on Sunday. So what sealed the deal? Thank his putter. He was 57 of 57 for the week inside 7 feet and finished the week ranked second in strokes gained–putting along with being 10th in strokes gained–off the tee and a surprising 12th in driving distance at 303.9 yards per drive (his 340 yard drive on Saturday on 18 was utterly mammoth). The question with Fowler will continue to be about getting it done in the clutch — he finally converted a 54-hole lead after being 0-for his last four — and when will he do it in a major. This will certainly help.
What is Club de Golf Chapultepec?
That's the venue this week, and here's what I've discovered about it:
1. It's at elevation. Big time elevation: 7,780 feet. This is probably going to be as elevated a golf course the PGA Tour has played since the old Sprint International event at Castle Pines in Colorado. Yes, they play at elevation every year in Reno, but not this high, and not for the top players in the world who play Firestone that week. (The golf course is actually shorter than the elevation – it's only 7,330 yards.)
2. According to Geoff Shackelford, who talked to PGA Tour advance man Gary Young, "the combination of a stern driving test, sneaky green and property tilting that will reward sound play, and the endurance element caused by the elevation (7,600 feet) should make for some challenging golf." The course is tight and tree-lined, which should put a premium on driving.
On Monday I interacted with Jorge Menendez on Twitter, a local resident who passed along some insight:
@jschil generous landing areas, everybody will wedge it around, fast & flat-ish greens. My guess is hot putter: Spieth, Rickie, ZJ, Woodland
— Jorge Menendez (@jorgemenendez) February 27, 2017
and …
@jschil course is old school tree-lined, will play very short, only defense will be fast greens, par 72 turned par 71. 20 under will win.
— Jorge Menendez (@jorgemenendez) February 27, 2017
and ...
@jschil irrelevant. Kuchar played an exhibition in 2015 (2-player team event) and shot 60 by himself on a longer course in Mexico City.
— Jorge Menendez (@jorgemenendez) February 27, 2017
So with that in mind, and with elevation taking care of the distance issues, it appears driving accuracy will be the important stat this week for 77-player field, which includes 49 of the top-50 golfers in the world.
The Who?
We should cover the field before we get to The Stat. Every big name is here (except Jason Day who withdrew because of illness), plus nearly 30 others, from various money and points lists around the world. Those players include notables such as Martin Kaymer, Andy Sullivan, Fabrizio Zanotti and Thorbjorn Olesen.
Every year at these World Golf Championship events we get that mystery player who shows up on a leaderboard. That "wait, who is this?" guy who's not super familiar to golf fans in the United States. Last year I told you to watch out for Danny Willett. Danny Willett won the Masters. Who is that person this time? I have two names for you: Tyrrell Hatton and Zanotti.
Hatton wasn't even on my radar through the middle of last year – and I'm the guy who's supposed to be the expert from watching a lot of golf – until Rich Lerner mentioned his name on a Golf Channel telecast. Suddenly, he's now 17th in the world, coming off a T4 at Honda that got was kind of his "hello, USA" moment. He got to 17th by having a last 12 months where he won the Alfred Dunhill Championship on the European Tour, had 10 other top-10s around the world, including at Honda last week.
Last season on the European Tour, Hatton was fourth in stroke average, 38th in greens in regulation, 29th in putts per GIR and fifth in scrambling. This is a consistent game that's been tested around the world and now is due to perform on the biggest stage.
Zanotti, meanwhile, is 86th in the world and is coming off a win in his last start at the Maybank Championship in Malaysia. In the last 12 months he has nine top-20s and ended 2016 ranked 44th in scoring average, third in driving accuracy and 20th in greens in regulation.
Both have games that should work well this week.
The Stat
Here are the PGA Tour driving accuracy leaders in the field this week:
Jim Furyk - 74.03 percent
Francesco Molinari - 73.70 percent
William McGirt - 73.02 percent
Roberto Castro - 72.24 percent
Russell Knox - 71.76 percent
Our two picks here are Furyk and Molinari. For Furyk – he's continually one of the most accurate drivers on tour and at a course where altitude will help you hit it far – Furyk's lack of distance suddenly becomes a non-issue.
Meanwhile for Molinari, he keeps having quietly strong finishes. As one writer said last weekend, — I wish I could remember who said it so I could credit him — he keeps picking up mysterious top finishes, without much TV coverage. Consider his official finishes on the PGA Tour in the 2016-17 season: T6-T4-T12-T14-missed cut-T14. That adds up to him being 27th in the FedEx Cup standings and ranking 34th in strokes gained-off the tee, ninth in strokes gained-approach to the green and 45th in strokes gained-putting. Both are strong picks this week.
The Weather
The weather in Mexico City will be sunny with temperatures in the 70s and a slight breeze until Sunday when some rain could move in.
