PrizePicks Golf: Charles Schwab Challenge

This article is part of our PrizePicks Golf series.

PrizePicks offers a unique twist on DFS play in the form of Over/Under picks for individual players in almost every sport imaginable. You have the opportunity to pick two, three or four players per entry, and the goal is to predict whether the individual player will end up over or under the projected total PrizePicks provides.  For PGA play, you are required to pick at least one Over and one Under play.  The legend for scoring in this format is as follows:

Unlike your usual PGA DFS platforms, PrizePicks offers PGA gameplay on a per-round basis, not for an entire tournament.  So, the projected totals you see today are for the individual rounds on Thursday, and once Thursday's round commences, you will see updated numbers for Friday, and so on.

For those who have yet to try the site, RotoWire has partnered with PrizePicks to give you an excellent way to start. Via our promotional offer, All you have to do is sign up and make an initial deposit. In return, you'll receive a free 2-pick entry to win $25 and a 25% instant match on your deposit. For the instant match promotion, the maximum deposit is $4,000 for $1,000 in Promo Money. If you are playing via the mobile app, use promo code: WIRE. 

Now that you know how to get in on this exciting format, let's take a look at this week's PGA Offering – the Charles Schwab Challenge.

COURSE DETAILS

Colonial CC – Fort Worth, TX

Par 70 - 7,209 yards

Most long-time golf enthusiasts know this tournament as 'The Colonial', but in recent years it's been re-branded and has now settled in with a new sponsor.  This course provides a stark contrast to the perils afoot at Bethpage Black last week. It's a shorter course where low scores are easily had, and Justin Rose's 21-under victory here last year is evidence of how things can go here.  The interesting wrinkle for this tournament is that entrants are invited, so the field is small (currently 121 players).  Despite the small field, the top 70 and ties will make the cut, so for you DFS players out there, getting all six of your guys into the weekend is almost a requirement for a good score.   With only two Par 5's on the course, this layout doesn't really favor the long drives.  Rather, it's a course that rewards excellent ball-striking and an ability to get it close to the pin in the Par 4's.  This will obviously influence the statistics we will analyze for the first round.

KEY STATISTICS

Round 1 Scoring Average

Par 4 Scoring Average

Approaches from 150-175 Yards

These stats pretty much speak for themselves.  Since we are making picks for the first round, we want to focus on guys who are quick out of the gate.  Par 4's will the difference makers in the tournament, and most of the approaches on the numerous dogleg Par 4's will be from 15-175 yards out.

WEATHER

For Round 1, there isn't much happening weather-wise that favors any particular tee time, aside from some below-average wind conditions for most of the weekend.

OVERS

Ian Poulter – 17.0

Poulter unceremoniously missed the cut in the PGA Championship, but he was on an impressive run against easier layouts leading up to the major.  He's consistently under par in Round 1 action, and while his 4.01 average on Par 4's leaves a little bit to be desired, he ranks 22nd on Tour in driving accuracy, another statistic that could be advantageous on this narrow course. 

Paul Casey – 18.5

Casey came in 10th at this tournament in 2017, and his stats indicate that this layout suits his game perfectly. He ranks 17th in Par 4 Average and his deadly accurate off the tee (10th on Tour in driving accuracy).  Not only do I expect him to be in the mix for the weekend, I think he has the right pieces in place to reach this high number.  Five birdies in the first round should do the trick.

Louis Oosthuizen – 17.5

Oosthuizen finished in 5th place on this course last season and came out of the gate hot with a 67 in the first round. He's been in the mix in almost every tournament he's entered, and when you couple course history with a 3.98 Par 4 average, you have to consider Oosthuizen as a decent Over play among the available players on this slate.

UNDERS

Jon Rahm – 19.5

This pick may bite me in the trousers by the end of the day, but I have a hard time seeing him above this number after a poor showing in the PGA Championship.  It wasn't just the difficulty of the course, either.  Rahm was spraying drives all over the place.  I suspect he might push for a good result on this deceptively easy layout, but a cold driver can doom any player here.  Rahm is a highly emotional player and he brings it out on the course. While he came in a tie for 5th here last year, he only got things going on Saturday with a 64.  That proves he has the mettle to compete on this course, but I'm betting that he doesn't reach this number on Thursday.

Bryson DeChambeau – 18,5

DeChambeau started hot on the course last year with a 68 but then faded down the stretch, ending in a tie for 42nd.  DeChambeau was arguably playing some of the best golf of his career, notching a win at the Memorial and a 4th-place finish at the Wells Fargo in the same month. Things have been rougher for him of late, as he's now missed two straight cuts after a serviceable weekend at the Masters.  I think DeChambeau is a better bet than Rahm for the Under here due to his recent struggles and a bad final round here last year.

Tony Finau – 18.0

Finau placed in a tie for 13th here in 2017 despite posting a dreadful 75 in the first round.  Things just haven't fallen Finau's way this season. He's one of the longest hitters on the tour, but that won't serve him well unless he can get it in the fairway. That skill has eluded him this season, as he ranks 152nd on Tour in total driving efficiency.  He does have one of the best Par 4 averages on Tour, but we have to consider how players are trending against these statistics, and lately Finau's numbers don't support him getting above this number.