This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
Three times in a row? That's interesting. Six times in a row? That's a trend. Nine times in a row? That's an epidemic! Just prior to leaving the air Saturday night, NBC commentator Dan Hicks mentioned a stat that seemed a little odd -- the last eight 54-hole leaders on the PGA Tour failed to win. The 54-hole leader at the time, Henrik Stenson, seemed like the perfect player to end the streak. He was a proven winner, a guy who seemed impervious to the pressure. Yet early Sunday afternoon, there it was, the pressure of the lead again striking down the poor sap who happened to play well enough to take the lead after the first three rounds.
Although a direct correlation can never be proven between playing poorly with the lead because of pressure, simply because we'll never know what goes through the mind of a golfer in the lead, it seemed almost to have a direct effect on Stenson. He played poorly on Sunday with the lead, only to make a comeback once he was trailing, but once in the lead again, his game again left him.
As if it wasn't hard enough to win on the PGA Tour to begin with, now comes the added specter of unending questions on Saturday night about how difficult it's been to win with the 54-hole lead this year. PGA Tour players already have too much to think about on a Sunday afternoon, now throw the stat that the last
Three times in a row? That's interesting. Six times in a row? That's a trend. Nine times in a row? That's an epidemic! Just prior to leaving the air Saturday night, NBC commentator Dan Hicks mentioned a stat that seemed a little odd -- the last eight 54-hole leaders on the PGA Tour failed to win. The 54-hole leader at the time, Henrik Stenson, seemed like the perfect player to end the streak. He was a proven winner, a guy who seemed impervious to the pressure. Yet early Sunday afternoon, there it was, the pressure of the lead again striking down the poor sap who happened to play well enough to take the lead after the first three rounds.
Although a direct correlation can never be proven between playing poorly with the lead because of pressure, simply because we'll never know what goes through the mind of a golfer in the lead, it seemed almost to have a direct effect on Stenson. He played poorly on Sunday with the lead, only to make a comeback once he was trailing, but once in the lead again, his game again left him.
As if it wasn't hard enough to win on the PGA Tour to begin with, now comes the added specter of unending questions on Saturday night about how difficult it's been to win with the 54-hole lead this year. PGA Tour players already have too much to think about on a Sunday afternoon, now throw the stat that the last nine 54-hole leaders have failed to win and let's see how that works out. PGA Tour players will always say that they'd rather have a stroke in hand than play from behind, but if this keeps up, they just might finally admit to what we've all been thinking -- they hate being in the lead.
This week: Texas Open - TPC San Antonio, San Antonio
Last Year: Steven Bowditch shot a final-round 71 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Daniel Summerhays and Will MacKenzie.
PLAYERS TO CONSIDER
Freddie Jacobson
Jacobson has yet to win this event, but he's also never finished outside the top 30. That's correct, eight tries here and nothing worse than T29. His best stretch came from 2009-11 when he finished in the top 5 all three years, including runner-up in 2010.
Jim Furyk
The field is pretty thin this week, and it looks like a perfect spot for Furyk to break his winless streak. He's played this event only twice, but each time he's finished in the top 10. His best finish came in 2013 when he finished T3.
Charley Hoffman
Hoffman was doing just fine at this event before the change of venue in 2010, but he's been even better since the switch. Since this event moved to its current venue in 2010, Hoffman has recorded five consecutive top-15 finishes. His best came in 2011 when he finished runner-up.
Zach Johnson
Johnson enters with some momentum from the Arnold Palmer, courtesy of the albatross on Sunday, but that aside, this has always been a good spot for him. He won this event in consecutive years, at the previous venue, but he also recorded a T6 here last year.
Jordan Spieth
Spieth is certainly one of the bigger names in the field this week, and considering the PGA Tour is in his home state of Texas, you can be sure he'll be focused on winning. The way he's playing, though, most likely will save him for a major. If you aren't one of those, then this looks like a good week to use him.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Will MacKenzie
MacKenzie finished runner-up here last year, which is usually a good sign, but thaT finish came during a hot-streak, which didn't last much beyond the Texas Open. Since that run early last year, MacKenzie has struggled mightily.
Billy Horschel
Horschel tieD for third at this event in 2013, but his other three tries here have been ugly. He missed the cut last year, and although he made the cut in his other two starts, he posted scores of 74 or higher in his four weekend rounds.
Steven Bowditch
Matt Every was the exception last week, the rare defending champ who plays well and wins. Bowditch likely won't be as lucky this week. Prior to winning here last year, Bowditch finished T68, MC, T69. He might be improving over time, but I still don't like the inconsistency.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat
Aphibarnrat got some publicity last weekend when he played his way into the top 10, but if you've followed him at all the last couple years, you know that he's not the most reliable player from week to week, and the odds are he'll come back to earth this week.
Justin Leonard
Leonard won this event when it was held at the previous venue, but since the move to the new venue, he's failed to crack the top 30. He continues the make the cut nearly every year and plays fairly well on the weekend, but unless you are satisfied with just a top-30, you should probably look elsewhere.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Last week: Sean O'Hair (T29) - $40,058; Season - $1,184,261
This week: Charley Hoffman - With so many solid lower-tier options this week, there's no need to go big with someone like Spieth. Hoffman has been consistent here, and his upside looks enticing as well.
YAHOO PICKS
Points: 1564
Rank: 30,773
This Week:
Group A: Jim Furyk, Matt Jones
Group B: Jordan Spieth, Zach Johnson, Dustin Johnson, Jimmy Walker
Group C: Charley Hoffman, Freddie Jacobson
SURVIVOR PICK
Last week: Ian Poulter (T21); Streak - 2
This week: Charley Hoffman - A lot of good, safe options this week, but Hoffman appears to be among the best. Hoffman is 9-9 in cuts made at this event, and that number should be 10-10 come Friday afternoon.
