Weekly Preview: TOUR Championship

TOUR Championship

East Lake G.C.
Atlanta, GA  

The 30 golfers still alive in the playoffs head to Atlanta, GA to compete for the FedEx Cup. Just like last year, the golfers atop the FedExCup Standings will receive strokes at the beginning of the week, and the person who wins the TOUR Championship will be crowned FedExCup Champion for 2020. Last year Rory McIlroy won despite starting the week in fifth place, which shows you can overcome the disadvantage on the leaderboard...if you play well enough. Fantasy leagues may have been left scrambling last year trying to determine a fair way to credit the $15 million prize for first place, but with a year under their belts, they should be better equipped to handle it this time around. As for what's in store this week, well, if the tournament plays out anything like this past week, we've got a lot to look forward to. Considering the two combatants in last week's playoff start with the most strokes under par, there's a good chance that Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm will again be in the mix this week. Unlike this past week, we've got a lot of course history in play, which means we should have a pretty good idea of who will be in contention come the final round on Labor Day.

LAST YEAR

Rory McIlroy shot a final-round 66 on his way to a four-stroke victory over Xander Schauffele.

FAVORITES

Dustin Johnson (2-1)

I'll be the first to admit, after DJ's blistering effort two weeks ago I did not see him coming back so strong this past week at the BMW Championship. However, that's exactly what he did. He starts this week at 10-under-par, which means half the field probably won't catch him. Several top golfers are right on his heels, though, so he'll still have to play very well to win. If he keeps his current form, it's a good bet he will be holding the trophy come Monday. DJ has finished top-6 here in four of his past six starts.

Jon Rahm (3-1)

Rahm starts two strokes off the pace, but if not for those strokes, his odds would be even with DJ. The concerns with Rahm this week are twofold. First, he won this past week, and we know how hard it is to go back-to-back. Second, he's played this event three times and his best finish was a T7 in 2017. That's not terrible, but I'd prefer to see a top-5 finish or two in this event on his resume.

Justin Thomas (5-1)

Thomas starts just one shot back of Rahm and three back of DJ. Thomas was in the pole position entering last year's TOUR Championship and he did not handle that spot very well. Perhaps coming off the pace this time around will suit him better this year. Thomas has not been on top of his game recently, but he can turn it on at any time, and I'd be shocked if he weren't in the mix come Monday. Thomas has finished no worse than T7 in his four starts here.

THE NEXT TIER

Webb Simpson (9-1)

With such a small field and an even smaller number of golfers that can actually win this week, I had to expand my parameters in this section. Simpson is fourth in line and will start four strokes back of Johnson. If he plays like he has for much of the season, he has a chance to make up the deficit quickly and compete to the end. Simpson has been a bit hit-or-miss here, but he does have three top-5s in seven tries at this event.

Bryson DeChambeau (22-1)

DeChambeau starts at four-under-par this week, which is a lot to overcome, especially when considering those above him on the leaderboard. However, we know he's got plenty of game to run away with any event...if he's on. He hasn't been "on" lately, which is why he starts at a big disadvantage, but if he can find the form he showed a few weeks back, he could find himself in contention Monday.

Xander Schauffele (22-1)

Schauffele starts at three-under this week, which makes his chances even slimmer than the players above. He hasn't been playing his best golf lately, which has to make you wonder why he's on this list. The answer? Track record, track record, track record. It's all he's got working in his favor, but it's mighty impressive. In three starts at this event, Schauffele has a T7, a runner-up and a win.

LONG SHOTS

Rory McIlroy (22-1)

Again, I'm expanding the definition of this category. Honestly, with DJ and Rahm already in the lead, there are only about 15 guys -- maybe -- that have a chance to win. McIlroy is in that group, not because of his current form, but because of his track record here and his overall talent. McIlroy has won this event twice and finished runner-up another time. That's first or second in half his starts here.

Tony Finau (50-1)

This is as far as I'm willing to go. Finau starts at two-under this week, and although that's a huge deficit, we've seen some big-time runs from him before, so maybe he can get into the mix come Monday. The problem then becomes, even if he gets there, can he close? Normally I would say no, but golf is a goofy game, and it would somehow make sense that after all his struggles sealing the deal the last couple years, he comes from eight back to win the TOUR Championship.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Jon Rahm - Does anyone have Rahm left? Seriously, because if they do, it's time to deploy him. I had him this past week, so who knows, maybe there are a bunch of OAD players out there that have been stashing him. If you've been saving him for a major however, I would scrap that plan and use him here. He won't have better odds at either of the remaining majors.

Moderately-owned Pick: Xander Schauffele - Schauffele feels like someone OAD players have been sitting on for a while, and if that's the case this might be a good time to use him. His odds of winning this week are small, but he can still get into contention and earn a big check.

Lightly-owned Pick: Tony Finau - OAD players are going to lean on the guys with the stroke advantages this week, and Finau is certainly not one of those guys. He is as streaky as they come and even if his odds of winning are slim, he can make a run and sneak into the top five if everything falls just right.

Buyer Beware: Collin Morikawa - Once known for his consistency, Morikawa has morphed into a hit-or-miss golfer over the past couple months. He obviously hit with his win at the PGA Championship, but his results have been lackluster since. He missed the cut two weeks ago and was never a factor at the BMW Championship. He did close well, however, which could be a sign he's on the way back.

Last Week: Jon Rahm (1) $1,710,000 

Season Total: $7,251,971  

This Week: Hideki Matsuyama - In a perfect world I'd have someone in the top five available, but Matsuyama sits at four-under under right now, and that's not terrible. Factor in his strong showing at the BMW Championship and I'm actually feeling pretty good about this pick. Matsuyama also has a decent track record here, with top-10s in half his six starts.

FANDUEL PICKS  

Upper Range: Justin Thomas ($12,000)
Middle Range: Hideki Matsuyama ($10,000)
Lower Range: Billy Horschel ($7,000)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last week: N/A

Streak - 3

This week: N/A