This article is part of our Neutral Zone Wrap series.
Neutral Zone Wrap
Evan Berofsky, RotoWire.com
Wow. Has it already been a month since the season began? It almost feels like yesterday when we were trying to make educated projections, find that glimmer of hope in Buffalo, and debate how many times Evgeny Kuznetsov would score this year. (Remind me again, did we end up deciding on 50 or 60 goals?)
The concept of hot streaks and cold slumps is often mentioned in this column, most specifically as a warning for future performance. This week, we will focus on five players who have stormed out of the gate but could not possibly keep up their pace either due to history, situation, or simple arithmetic. (Next week, it's the ones who should be doing more.)
No superstars will be mentioned because it's not as though you're going to drop them (although trading high is an option). While the public enjoy seeing others crash, burn, and descend into a Siberian state of anonymity, expect a more tapered falloff from any of the following:
(Stats as of Monday, November 10th)
Johnny Boychuk, D, NY Islanders
This entry may seem obvious based on past credentials but you'd be surprised how often people become blinded by flashy numbers. First, take into account most of Boychuk's production came in the first three games (six of nine points, to be exact). A recent knock to the knee may help ease owners away from the ex-Bruin, while others may be scared off by either Lubomir Visnovsky (three
Neutral Zone Wrap
Evan Berofsky, RotoWire.com
Wow. Has it already been a month since the season began? It almost feels like yesterday when we were trying to make educated projections, find that glimmer of hope in Buffalo, and debate how many times Evgeny Kuznetsov would score this year. (Remind me again, did we end up deciding on 50 or 60 goals?)
The concept of hot streaks and cold slumps is often mentioned in this column, most specifically as a warning for future performance. This week, we will focus on five players who have stormed out of the gate but could not possibly keep up their pace either due to history, situation, or simple arithmetic. (Next week, it's the ones who should be doing more.)
No superstars will be mentioned because it's not as though you're going to drop them (although trading high is an option). While the public enjoy seeing others crash, burn, and descend into a Siberian state of anonymity, expect a more tapered falloff from any of the following:
(Stats as of Monday, November 10th)
Johnny Boychuk, D, NY Islanders
This entry may seem obvious based on past credentials but you'd be surprised how often people become blinded by flashy numbers. First, take into account most of Boychuk's production came in the first three games (six of nine points, to be exact). A recent knock to the knee may help ease owners away from the ex-Bruin, while others may be scared off by either Lubomir Visnovsky (three in eight) again assuming the non-Tavares point position on the top power-play or Nick Leddy (three goals, three assists) surpassing Boychuk due to superior natural talent.
Nick Foligno, F, Columbus
Foligno has always functioned as a reliable fantasy pick for racking up penalty minutes (96 last year, 124 two before that) but he's never been much of a scorer. That's not to say the winger is one-dimensional; after all, he possesses some of his father's slick skills around the net. Of course, the elder Foligno brother is more useful in leagues where toughness is rewarded (throw in 210 hits from 2013-14). But to extrapolate his current haul (15 in 13, including eight PPPs) over a full schedule would be ridiculous. He'll probably crack a personal pro point peak (47 was tops three years ago) but don't think it'll climb much higher than that.
Leo Komarov, F, Toronto
The history is clear: there's been no precedent showing the multinational agitator as an offensive force, unless you count last year's KHL breakout performance (34 in 52). While the Leafs are happy to provide Komarov with additional ice time (lately averaging between 16-20 minutes), there is little to no chance he will turn into a 50-point forward, let alone break 40. So be grateful with what Komarov has produced until now (goal, nine assists) and start ignoring him as if his fantasy value is low - which, surprise, it is.
Jori Lehtera, F, St. Louis
Highly touted coming in, Lehtera has done enough to justify the hype (11 in 13, plus-7). The Finn has also built a strong rapport centering famous one-handed goal machine Vladimir Tarasenko. The main concern lies in the fact the 26-year old has never played in a regular season for more than 58 games. One can't blame Lehtera for avoiding a heavier workload, as that's just how European leagues work. But it may serve as a reminder in the later months if his output suddenly slows down.
Ondrej Pavelec, G, Winnipeg
OK, so can we finally claim this to be Pavelec's year?! In the preseason, this column touted the chance it may happen but c'mon, no one honestly anticipated these early returns (1.98 GAA, .928 SV% in 14 appearances), right? In most fantasy setups, the latest statistics place him firmly as a top-ten netminder. Now if we peruse through his history, you'll notice the Czech hasn't even come close to cracking the top half at the end of any season. Avoid him completely? No way. Expect some sort of regression? All signs point to 'yes'.
(Honorable mention: Matt Beleskey, F, Anaheim; Brian Boyle, F, Tampa Bay; Chris Higgins, F, Vancouver; Jonas Hiller, G, Calgary; Erik Johnson, D, Colorado)
