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The top MMA betting picks for UFC 294 are laid out this week by Cole Shelton, who picks a favorite, an underdog, a prop and a parlay for bettors to consider Saturday night.
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Struggles continue in Vegas
Hernandez lost to Bill Algeo via unanimous decision (27-30, 27-30, 27-30) at UFC Fight Night on Saturday in Las Vegas.
ANALYSIS
Some late money came in on Hernandez making him roughly a -115 favorite at this time the fight when off, but he was never able to get on track against his bigger opponent. Alex seemed to be swimming upstream the entire bout. He did manage to crack Algeo with a handful of huge shots, but Bill ate each one without issue. To make matters worse, Hernandez was poked in the eye on multiple occasions, including a very bad one in Round 2. There simply wasn't enough prolonged damage for Alex to potentially win a decision. The 31-year-old Texan drops to 1-3 in his past four fights dating back to February 2022.
Some late money came in on Hernandez making him roughly a -115 favorite at this time the fight when off, but he was never able to get on track against his bigger opponent. Alex seemed to be swimming upstream the entire bout. He did manage to crack Algeo with a handful of huge shots, but Bill ate each one without issue. To make matters worse, Hernandez was poked in the eye on multiple occasions, including a very bad one in Round 2. There simply wasn't enough prolonged damage for Alex to potentially win a decision. The 31-year-old Texan drops to 1-3 in his past four fights dating back to February 2022.
Algeo fight scheduled
Hernandez will fight Bill Algeo in a featherweight bout at UFC Vegas 80 on Oct. 7, according to Marcel Dorff of Eurosport.nl.
ANALYSIS
Hernandez's next opponent is 4-3 across his UFC career. Fernandez, 6-5 in the UFC and 1-1 as a featherweight in the promotion, will try to build a winning streak after his February defeat over veteran Jim Miller.
Hernandez's next opponent is 4-3 across his UFC career. Fernandez, 6-5 in the UFC and 1-1 as a featherweight in the promotion, will try to build a winning streak after his February defeat over veteran Jim Miller.
Barely gets past Jim Miller
Hernandez defeated Jim Miller via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) at UFC Fight Night on Saturday in Las Vegas.
ANALYSIS
Stepping in for an injured Gabriel Benitez on less than two weeks' notice, Hernandez handled his business. It didn't come easy. This fight was much closer than the scorecards indicated. Alex consistently came out ahead in the striking exchanges between the two and appeared to really pull away in the middle stages of Round 2 until the final minute of Round 3, at which point Miller was able to get him to the mat and clamp on a rear-naked choke that nearly stole the fight. No longer a kid anymore at age 30, Hernandez has had his ups and downs in his near five years with the company. He's better than his 6-5 UFC mark would lead you to believe. The next challenge will be to put together a string of victories.
Stepping in for an injured Gabriel Benitez on less than two weeks' notice, Hernandez handled his business. It didn't come easy. This fight was much closer than the scorecards indicated. Alex consistently came out ahead in the striking exchanges between the two and appeared to really pull away in the middle stages of Round 2 until the final minute of Round 3, at which point Miller was able to get him to the mat and clamp on a rear-naked choke that nearly stole the fight. No longer a kid anymore at age 30, Hernandez has had his ups and downs in his near five years with the company. He's better than his 6-5 UFC mark would lead you to believe. The next challenge will be to put together a string of victories.
Steps in on short notice
Hernandez will step in on short notice to take on Jim Miller in a lightweight matchup at UFC Vegas 69 on Feb. 18, Alex Behunin of Cageside Press reports.
ANALYSIS
While Hernandez continues to face solid competition, he's lost three of his last four fights in the Octagon, and his roster spot could very well be on thin ice if he's unable to put away the 39-year-old veteran, even with his willingness to "save" this fight. Hernandez is ultimately accepting the bout on 10 days' notice following the withdrawal of Gabriel Benitez due to a cut (per CC Legaspi of ESPN Deportes. Hernandez has been taken down twice in each of his last two defeats, and sports a good-but-not-great 61 percent takedown defense with the UFC. Miller will likely look to make this a slow, grinding fight, while the matchup favors Hernandez when on the feet.
While Hernandez continues to face solid competition, he's lost three of his last four fights in the Octagon, and his roster spot could very well be on thin ice if he's unable to put away the 39-year-old veteran, even with his willingness to "save" this fight. Hernandez is ultimately accepting the bout on 10 days' notice following the withdrawal of Gabriel Benitez due to a cut (per CC Legaspi of ESPN Deportes. Hernandez has been taken down twice in each of his last two defeats, and sports a good-but-not-great 61 percent takedown defense with the UFC. Miller will likely look to make this a slow, grinding fight, while the matchup favors Hernandez when on the feet.
Struggles continue in Vegas
Hernandez lost to Billy Quarantillo via TKO (strikes) at 4:30 of Round 2 at UFC 282 on Saturday in Las Vegas.
ANALYSIS
It's a crushing loss for Hernandez in what appeared to be a winnable fight. As has been the case in the past, Alex started fast before fading in a major way. He likely won Round 1 on the strength of a pair of successful takedowns and 2:53 worth of control time, but Quarantillo picked up the pace in Round 2, and Hernandez quickly wilted. It's a concerning effort for a fighter who has had serious durability issues recently. A loser in three of his last four bouts dating back to February 2021, Hernandez is likely fighting for his job his next time out.
It's a crushing loss for Hernandez in what appeared to be a winnable fight. As has been the case in the past, Alex started fast before fading in a major way. He likely won Round 1 on the strength of a pair of successful takedowns and 2:53 worth of control time, but Quarantillo picked up the pace in Round 2, and Hernandez quickly wilted. It's a concerning effort for a fighter who has had serious durability issues recently. A loser in three of his last four bouts dating back to February 2021, Hernandez is likely fighting for his job his next time out.