Noche UFC DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
Get top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva. Build winning lineups with our preview, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $333k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Featherweight
Diego Lopes (26-7-0) v. Jean Silva (16-2-0)
DK Salaries: Lopes ($7,00), Silva ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Lopes (+200), Silva (-265)
Lopes has had quite a UFC run considering this is a guy that actually lost on Dana White's Contender Series back in August 2021. He made his official company debut in May 2023 and was competitive in a unanimous decision defeat to top contender Movsar Evloev. He ran off five straight wins after that, including victories over Pat Sabatini, Dan Ige and Brian Ortega. Lopes parlayed the winning streak into a title fight against Alexander Volkanovski in April in which he hung around, but failed to really show much in a unanimous decision setback. I like Lopes and think he's a quality fighter, but he doesn't appear to be quite on the same level as the best guys at 145 pounds.
Silva has been unstoppable in the UFC, winning each of his first five fights, all via stoppage (four knockouts, one submission). He missed weight once during that stretch, and the only truly quality victory of the bunch came against Bryce Mitchell his last time out, but plenty of knowledgeable people feel this is a guy, that at a minimum, will challenge for a title one day. Lopes is pretty clearly his best opponent to date, and he brings a completely different style of fighting to the table than Mitchell did.
Both of these guys hit very hard and both have displayed remarkable durability to date, having never been finished in their respective careers. I think Silva probably has the edge in terms of pure technical boxing, but Lopes is four inches taller and will enter with a three-inch reach edge. For what it's worth, Silva is very good at getting inside and limiting the space of his opposition. As talented as he is on the feet, he can't stand at range against Lopes for an extended period of time given the latter's size advantage.
A black belt in BJJ, Lopes has a dozen career wins via submission. He's not much of a wrestler (0.35 takedowns per 15 minutes), and nearly all of those wins came early in his career on the Brazilian regional scene, so I don't expect his grappling game to give Silva much of a problem.
This looks like a stand-up affair all the way.
The Lopes side looks like the correct DraftKings play, even if I'm taking SIlva to win.
I don't see a $2,200 difference in salary between these two, and given the durability Diego has shown, I think he hangs around long enough to generate a decent amount of offense of his own. Silva is the pick, but I think this will end up being closer than the odds would lead you to believe.
THE PICK: Silva
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Co-Main Event - Bantamweight
Rob Font (22-8-0) v. David Martinez (12-1-0)
DK Salaries: Font ($8,500), Martinez ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Font (-145), Martinez (+115)
This was scheduled to be Font and Raul Rosas before the latter withdrew due to a rib injury. That seemed like a terrible matchup for Font, so he's probably thrilled with the opponent change, even though it's coming on late notice.
Now 38 years old, Font was left for dead following a stretch from December 2021 to December 2023 in which he went 1-4. The setbacks came against Jose Aldo, Marlon Vera, Cory Sandhagen and Deiveson Figueiredo. I thought he was a release candidate, but the UFC stuck with him, and Font has since responded with back-to-back upset wins over Kyler Phillips and Jean Matsumoto. There's clearly some gas left in the tank here.
Martinez was scheduled to face Quang Le on this card, so he has a full training camp under his belt and should be really to go. Our exposure to Martinez has been limited. He earned his UFC opportunity with a unanimous decision win on Dana White's Contender Series last October and knocked out Saimon Oliveira in Round 1 in his official company debut in March.
Font is a high-volume striker. He's an excellent boxer, and although his hand and foot speed have decreased over the years, he's still a threat on the feet. Font averages 5.49 significant strikes landed per minute. His takedown defense is a major concern, and that hole in his game would have been exploited against Rosas, but Martinez seems likely to be willing to meet him in the middle of the Octagon to throw down.
While Font has the volume edge on his side, the power is clearly in the favor of Martinez. 10 of David's 12 career wins have come via knockout, including six in Round 1. I'm curious if Martinez has a backup plan in case those power shots aren't landing. He did connect with 79 total strikes in his win on DWCS, but Font seems likely to eclipse that number by a decent margin if the two end up engaging in a 15-minute kickboxing match.
I'm actually surprised the odds are this close. I'm fairly confident Font would have been completely overwhelmed by the grappling game of Rosas, but this feels like, on paper, the exact type of fight in which he can excel in the latter part of his career. Assuming his durability holds up, I think he outpoints Martinez on the feet.
THE PICK: Font
Lightweight
Rafa Garcia (17-4-0) v. Jared Gordon (21-7-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Garcia ($7,100), Gordon ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Garcia (+190), Gordon (-250)
Born in California and now training full-time in Mexico, Garcia has been with the UFC since 2021 and has essentially been treading water the entire time. He's 5-4 in nine career fights with the company. Most of his wins have come via decision, and he's had no real success in the instances in which he was matched up against better competition. The 31-year-old is essentially just roster depth for a company that holds an event nearly every Saturday.
Gordon has developed a pretty impressive resume, not in terms of wins and losses, but in terms of the quality of opposition faced over the course of his near eight-year UFC run. Gordon hasn't won two in a row since 2021, but he has shared the Octagon with the likes of King Green, Grant Dawson, Paddy Pimblett and Charles Oliveira. Of course, those four fights resulted in three setbacks (and a no-contest against Green), but perhaps this gives Gordon a slight edge come fight night.
Gordon has bounced between gyms over the years and is currently in Florida with the guys at Kill Cliff. He's a high-volume striker who keeps a steady pace. Gordon actually does a halfway decent job of defending himself on the feet considering he typically finds himself in brawls. His durability (four career defeats via knockout) isn't the best, but he can mix in a takedown here and there (1.83 per 15 minutes), even if his submission game is lacking.
Garcia, on the other hand, has no stopping power in his hands. He has just one career knockout in 21 professional fights. Even in his most recent bout in March against a since-retired 42-year-old Vinc Pichel, Garcia still found himself on the short end of a 79-64 count in terms of total strikes landed.
Rafa makes his living off his grappling game. I wouldn't call him a great technical wrestler by any means, but he's determined and aggressive, which has led to a rate of 3.21 takedowns per 15 minutes to date. I expect any Garcia victory to likely come via decision and almost certainly involve a boatload of control time.
If I'm rolling with an underdog, I typically like said 'dog to have some decent power in their hands because that's usually the cleanest and most instant path to victory. Garcia doesn't bring that to the table. As much as I don't like backing Gordon at this price, he's the pick. This feels like a stay-away all together on a card with 14 scheduled fights.
THE PICK: Gordon
Women's Strawweight
Tatiana Suarez (11-1-0) v. Amanda Lemos (15-4-1)
DK Salaries: Suarez ($9,400), Lemos ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Suarez (-460), Lemos (+320)
Suarez finally got her title shot against Zhang Weili in Sydney, Australia in February. Many were picking her that evening, but she was dominated from start to finish in what was truly a horrendous effort. Suarez's wrestling game is elite, but she isn't going to be able to beat anyone of note if she's going 1-for-15 on takedown attempts. Her overall offensive game is limited, and opposition that is truly at the top of the food chain is going to take advantage of that.
Lemos turned 38 years of age in May and is clearly running out of time to make an impact, even in a thin 115-pound female division. Lemos has alternated wins and losses in her past five fights dating back to November 2022. Outside of a single unanimous decision win over Mackenzie Dern, Amanda has had no real success against better competition, and I'm not the least bit optimistic it's going to improve moving forward.
I struggle to find anything Lemos does particularly well. In addition to getting up there in age, she's low-volume on the feet (2.89 significant strikes landed per minute) and averages just 1.14 takedowns per 15 minutes despite landing 62 percent of her takedown attempts. In short, Amanda has no way to consistently land meaningful offense.
I touched on Suarez's grappling game earlier. It didn't work against Zhang, but it's going to work, and work in a major way, against most everyone else in the division. She's averaging 4.65 takedowns per 15 minutes. We've seen Lemos really struggle to remain upright in the past. She's been pinned to the mat for long stretches at a time, which is the ultimate concern against Suarez.
Lemos probably has the edge in a prolonged striking match, but does anyone really think that's how this fight is going to go? I highly doubt it.
This is a clear Suarez pick in what should be an easy win. The only question is how deep do you want to get invested given the fact you'll have to cut so many corners elsewhere in regards to constructing a lineup.
THE PICK: Suarez
Other Bouts
Middleweight
Kelvin Gastelum (20-10-0, 1NC) v. Dustin Stoltzfus (16-7-0)
DK Salaries: Gastelum ($9,000), Stoltzfus ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Gastelum (-280), Stoltzfus (+210)
THE PICK: Gastelum
Lightweight
Alexander Hernandez (17-8-0) v. Carlos Diego Ferreira (19-6-0)
DK Salaries: Hernandez ($8,400), Ferreira ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Hernandez (-130), Ferreira (+110)
THE PICK: Ferreira
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Bantamweight
Santiago Luna (6-0-0) v. Quang Le (9-2-0)
DK Salaries: Luna ($8,300), Le ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Luna (-125), Le (+100)
THE PICK: Le
Middleweight
Jose Medina (11-5-0) v. Dusko Todorovic (12-6-0)
DK Salaries: Medina ($6,900), Todorovic ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Medina (+240), Todorovic (-330)
THE PICK: Todorovic
Lightweight
Claudio Puelles (13-4-0) v. Joaquim Silva (13-6-0)
DK Salaries: Puelles ($8,200), Silva ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Puelles (-115), Silva (-105)
THE PICK: Puelles
Flyweight
Jesus Aguilar (11-3-0) v. Luis Gurule (10-1-0)
DK Salaries: Aguilar ($7,500), Gurule ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Aguilar (+170), Gurule (-225)
THE PICK: Aguilar
Middleweight
Zachary Reese (9-2-0) v. Sedriques Dumas (10-3-0)
DK Salaries: Reese ($8,900), Dumas ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Reese (-260), Dumas (+195)
THE PICK: Reese
Flyweight
Alessandro Costa (14-4-0) v. Alden Coria (10-3-1, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Costa ($9,500), Coria ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Costa (-480), Coria (+330)
THE PICK: Costa
Women's Bantamweight
Montserrat Rendon (6-1-0) v. Alice Pereira (6-0-0)
DK Salaries: Rendon ($7,600), Pereira ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Rendon (+130), Rendon (-165)
THE PICK: Pereira
Ultimate Fighter 33 Welterweight Final
Rodrigo Sezinando (9-1-0) v. Daniil Donchenko (12-2-0)
DK Salaries: Sezinando ($7,400), Donchenko ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Sezinando (+200), Donchenko (-240)
THE PICK: Donchecnko
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
