Noche UFC: MMA Betting Picks and Odds Insight
The UFC is in San Antonio, Texas, on Saturday, September 13, for its annual Noche UFC card. The main event sees Diego Lopes taking on Jean Silva in a pivotal featherweight bout.
Below, I'll share my Noche UFC predictions, including my favorite pick, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Women's Bantamweight
Alice Pereira (5-0) vs Montserrat Rendon (6-1)
Alice Pereira is just 19 years old and is making her UFC debut Saturday, and this is a good spot to take her as a slight favorite against Montserrat Rendon.
Pereira is a great kickboxer and should be able to keep it standing against Rendon, who I don't view as UFC-caliber. Rendon is 1-1 in the UFC and is there to be hit, as she has a negative striking differential.
Meanwhile, Rendon's takedown accuracy is 54 percent, so I like Pereira to keep it standing and piece up Rendon to get a TKO win.
Noche UFC Bet: Alice Pereira (-142)
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Weight Class: Lightweight
Carlos Diego Ferreira (19-6) vs Alexander Hernandez (17-8)
For my underdog pick, I'm taking Diego Ferreira to beat Alexander Hernandez in what is admittedly close to a pick'em fight.
Ferreira was supposed to fight King Green at UFC 319, but an injury to Green canceled the fight the day before. Hernandez, meanwhile, scored an upset first-round knockout win at UFC 319. Hernandez has been an inconsistent fighter in his UFC tenure, while Ferreira is a tough out.
Ferreira is more active on the feet, while Hernandez has a negative striking differential. This should be a very close and competitive fight, so I'll take Ferreira as the underdog to edge out a decision.
Noche UFC Bet: Carlos Diego Ferreira (-105)
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Weight Class: Strawweight
Tatiana Suarez (10-1) vs Amanda Lemos (15-4-1)
For my prop, I'm taking the under 2.5 rounds in the Tatiana Suarez vs Amanda Lemos fight.
Suarez is coming off a very disappointing performance against Zhang Weili for the strawweight title. However, this is a good rebound fight for Suarez to use her wrestling to out-grapple Lemos and likely get a submission win.
But, given that the under 2.5 rounds is only -130, that's a good spot, in case Lemos does pull the upset and TKO Suarez. However, Lemos has been submitted by Virna Jandiroba and Jessica Andrade, so it is a weakness for her. Look for Suarez to use her wrestling to control this fight and get an early stoppage win.
Noche UFC Bet: Tatiana Suarez & Amanda Lemos under 2.5 rounds (-130)
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Weight Class: Middleweight & lightweight
Kelvin Gastelum (19-10) vs Dustin Stoltzfus (16-7)
Jared Gordon (21-7) vs Rafa Garcia (17-4)
For my parlay at Noche UFC, I'm taking Kelvin Gastelum and Jared Gordon to get their hands raised Saturday night.
Gastelum is coming off a hard-fought decision loss to Joe Pyfer, but he did look good in the fight. Stoltzfus is a step down in competition for Gastelum, and is there to be hit. Expect Gastelum to be more active on the feet and mix in the wrestling to get a decision win.
To close out the parlay, I'm backing Gordon to beat Garcia. Garcia is coming off a win over Pichel, but Gordon is a tough out. Gordon is a well-rounded fighter who has good wrestling and KO power. Gordon should be able to keep this fight standing and land the better shots to either get a TKO win or a clear-cut decision to close out the parlay.
Noche UFC Bet: Kelvin Gastelum & Jared Gordon parlay (-103)
UFC Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's Noche UFC card.
- Alice Pereira (-142)
- Carlos Diego Ferreira (-105)
- Tatiana Suarez-Amanda Lemos under 2.5 rounds (-130)
- Kelvin Gastelum & Jared Gordon parlay (-103)
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