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Best Bets for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars | Trevor Lawrence U 213.5 Passing Yards (-117)
Patrick Mahomes leads the Kansas City Chiefs on the road to attempt to secure their third consecutive win against an improved Jacksonville Jaguars team. Oddsmakers are currently laying -3.5 with the Chiefs on the point spread, with a 45.5 point total.
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The Jaguars' offensive turnaround has been due to their rushing attack. New head coach Liam Coen has emphasized a run-centric scheme, allowing RB Travis Etienne to turn back the clock and play some of the best football of his career in 2025.
As a result, QB Trevor Lawrence hasn't been tasked with high expectations, allowing him to serve as a game manager at times. Kansas City's pass defense has been playing better than its run defense, meaning we should see Coen dial up for touches for Etienne tonight.
For our first best bet on Week 5 Monday Night Football, let's fade Lawrence as a passer. Kansas City has held three straight opponents under 200 passing yards, including the Eagles, Giants, and Ravens. This means Jacksonville will lean on its run game to stay competitive against the Chiefs.
Wager on Lawrence to go under 213.5 passing yards at -117. He's gone under this number in two of four games this season, while barely going over against Houston with 222 passing yards in Week 2.
Best Bets for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars | JuJu Smith-Schuster O 2.5 Receptions (-157)
One of Patrick Mahomes' favorite targets through the first quarter of the season has been WR JuJu Smith-Schuster. The Chiefs' wideout has a 12 percent target share, but has logged four or more receptions in three of four games.
Jacksonville's pass defense is porous, allowing bottom-12 marks in total receiving yards, completions, and touchdowns. Smith-Schuster should feast in a plus-matchup as his rapport with Mahomes continues to develop, especially with WR Xavier Worthy tagged questionable with an injury.
Bet on Smith-Schuster to go over 2.5 receptions at a premium price for our second best bet in this Monday Night Football game.
Best Bets for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars | Isiah Pacheco U 7.5 Rush Attempts (+100)
Kansas City's offense has not been able to establish the run this season, and it won't start against the Jaguars' run defense. Jacksonville is allowing a stingy 3.9 YPC and one total rushing touchdown through four games played.
Expect a ton of quick passes, screens, and play-action deep balls from Mahomes in Andy Reid's offense. As a result, RB Isiah Pacheco will handle limited carries.
Pacheco is splitting snaps with RB Kareem Hunt, who has a 35 percent rush share compared to Pacheco's 31.1 percent rate. He's seeing a slightly bigger uptick in targets, which is where Pacheco will likely make himself most useful against the Jaguars.
In four games, Pacheco has gone over 7.5 carries twice. The outings when Pacheco went under 7.5 carries came in a blowout win against the Ravens last week and a narrow loss to the Chargers in Week 1.
This is a play that focuses on how Jacksonville's defense will neutralize a stale Kansas City rushing attack. Let's bet on Pacheco to go under 7.5 rush attempts against the Jaguars.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Picks
- Trevor Lawrence U 213.5 Passing Yards (-117)
- JuJu Smith-Schuster O 2.5 Receptions (-157)
- Isiah Pacheco U 7.5 Rush Attempts (+100)
Best Events to Use the Caesars Sportsbook Promo Code ROTO20X For on October 6th
- NFL: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars. The 3-1 Jaguars host the Chiefs as a +3.5 point home underdog with a 45.5 point total on Monday Night Football.
- MLB: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies. NLDS Game 2 matchup with Blake Snell and the Dodgers favored to win a second straight game in this series against Jesus Luzardo and the Phillies. The Dodgers are -130 moneyline with a 7.5 run total.
- MLB: Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers. NLDS Game 2 has Aaron Ashby and the Brewers favored at home against Shota Imanaga and the Chicago Cubs to take a 2-0 series lead. Milwaukee -125 moneyline and a run total of 8.0.
