NASCAR DFS: AAA Texas 500 Picks

NASCAR DFS: AAA Texas 500 Picks

This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.


Location: Fort Worth, Texas
Course: Texas Motor Speedway
Format: 1.5-mile quad-oval
Laps: 334

Race Preview

NASCAR's Chase for the Sprint Cup created even more fireworks last week at Martinsville Speedway. Jeff Gordon seized the moment to book the first spot in the Championship round, while Matt Kenseth and Joey Logano tangled again in a surprising incident that will see Kenseth sit out the next two races. At Texas, Jimmie Johnson has reigned supreme. He won three of the last four races at the track, four of the last six, and could be the first non-Chase driver to win a Chase round this season. Logano, the best driver in the last 12 races before contact with Kenseth last week, now sits last in the championship standings. Logano won at Texas in the spring of 2014, and will be looking to punch his ticket to Miami by getting back into Victory Lane this week.

Key Stats at Texas Motor Speedway

Races: 29
Winners from pole: 3
Winners from top-5 starters: 19
Winners from top-10 starters: 23
Winners from 21st or lower starters: 4
Fastest race: 160.557 mph

Last 10 Texas Winners

2015 spring - Jimmie Johnson
2014 fall - Jimmie Johnson
2014 spring - Joey Logano
2013 fall - Jimmie Johnson
2013 spring - Kyle Busch
2012 fall - Jimmie Johnson
2012 spring - Greg Biffle
2011 fall - Tony Stewart
2011 spring - Matt Kenseth
2010 fall - Denny Hamlin

Texas Motor Speedway is one of NASCAR's 1.5-mile quad-oval tracks where a car's outright lap speed pays dividends in the race. The teams that unload a fast car and carry that pace through qualifying tend to have an advantage. The circuit can produce long green-flag periods that enable a quick car to distance itself from the rest of the field. The turns have multiple grooves, and drivers will search to find the place their car works best. Track position and restarts are always important, but being able to stay on top of a car's handling throughout the 500 miles may be the most significant differentiator this week. However, don't rule out pit strategy if the race sees late cautions.

(Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)

DraftKings Tier 1 Values

Kevin Harvick - $11,100
Joey Logano - $10,800
Jimmie Johnson - $10,500
Kyle Busch - $10,400

DraftKings Tier 2 Values

Carl Edwards - $9,400
Kurt Busch - $9,300
Martin Truex Jr. - $9,200
Denny Hamlin - $8,900
Dale Earnhardt Jr. - $8,600

DraftKings Tier 3 Values

Jamie McMurray - $7,400
Ryan Newman - $7,200
Clint Bowyer - $6,800

DraftKings Long-Shot Values

Ryan Blaney - $7,000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - $6,400
Casey Mears - $6,200
Trevor Bayne - $6,100


Lower-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)

Jimmie Johnson - $10,500
Kyle Busch - $10,400
Martin Truex Jr. - $9,200
Ryan Blaney - $7,000
Greg Biffle - $6,600
A.J. Allmendinger - $6,100

Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch become the two drivers with the best records at Texas this week due to the absence of Matt Kenseth. Truex finished ninth here earlier this year and has three top-10 finishes in his last five races. Ryan Blaney wasn't able to finish at Texas earlier this year, but proven to be quite competitive since. He qualified 13th before notching that DNF. Last week's effort was a rough one for Biffle, but Texas marked the team's first noticable step forward in performance in 2015. He finished 17th in that race. Lastly, Allmendinger turned in a top performance last week at Martinsville. He finished 11th, and will have some bounce in his step this week as a result.

Higher-Risk Lineup
($50K Salary Cap)

Joey Logano - $10,800
Brad Keselowski - $10,300
Kyle Larson - $7,800
Ryan Newman - $7,200
Clint Bowyer - $6,800
Tony Stewart - $6,800

It will be interesting to see how Logano attacks Texas this week. He finished fourth, leading 19 laps, earlier this year and does not face his biggest danger on the track this week like in Martinsville. He has still been the best driver in recent months despite last week's controversy. Keselowski finished fifth here earlier this season, and has two top-10s in four Texas starts. Newman returned to the top 10 last week after being locked out for the month of October. Bowyer struggled here as well, but is in the top 10 at the track when ranked by driver's rating. A top-10 last week showed Stewart still has what it takes, but we'll want to see some speed from him in practice. Otherwise, an option for his replacement could be Paul Menard.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. C.J. Radune plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: cjradune, RaceDayScore: cjradune.
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C.J. Radune
Radune covers NASCAR, Formula 1 and soccer for RotoWire. He was named the Racing Writer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association in 2012 and 2015.
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