This article is part of our Betting on Soccer series.
My theories for Gameweek 26 were correct; my bets were not. Over the weekend, six of nine matches had two goals or fewer, while two of the other three were shutout wins for Tottenham and Liverpool.
I had a feeling matches would be low scoring because of the heavy schedule, but I turned that into a bunch of win to nil bets that didn't hit. I had the right idea with Brighton and Fulham, I just didn't think they'd both be held scoreless against bad teams. But that's what I get for betting bad teams against bad teams. Unfortunately, I also bet on bad teams against good ones, and that's how Burnley burned my parlay.
I'll touch on a few things I like for the midweek matches, but this article will mostly feature Gameweek 27. It's hard to bet on games when almost every team plays midweek, but you can still benefit from the early lines.
I didn't make the "both teams not to score" bet in the Tottenham and Burnley match as one of my main plays last week. Maybe I was making sure you read through the article instead of just scrolling to the bottom to see my bets. Your loss, I guess.
THE WEEK AHEAD
It's hard to ignore Burnley matches even though Leicester City aren't at full strength. There's a chance either team comes out on top Wednesday, but I think both are in play to finish scoreless. I'm worried about what could be a make-shift Leicester back line, but I'll still take both teams to not score at -107 on principle.
I'm also still fading Crystal Palace every chance I can get as long as Wilfried Zaha is out. They were lucky to steal a point against Fulham, but I don't think that'll happen against a team that can hit the back of the net. Manchester United to win to nil is +133.
Fulham are playing every game tight and I expect the same even against better competition. You can get under 2.5 goals at -125 or both teams to not score at -109 in their home match against Tottenham.
For the weekend, it's more of the same with Burnley and Arsenal the early match on Saturday. Burnley aren't deep and they have three matches in seven days. Combine that with an in-form Arsenal and you have what should be a win for the Gunners. While they are one of the big teams I rarely trust, they are slowing getting past that stage. You can get Arsenal to win at -152 or both teams not to score at -114, but this is a good spot for a win to nil bet at +175. It's not an easy bet because Arsenal are struggling for clean sheets, but Burnley have one goal in their last three matches.
Aston Villa and Wolverhampton played to a 1-0 result earlier in the season, and the goal came via the penalty spot in the final seconds. Prior to Wednesday's matches, there were five goals in Villa's last four matches and six in Wolverhampton's last four. That's the main reason the under 2.5 goals is at -150, but if you want something with better odds, both teams not to score is -113. Villa aren't as potent without Jack Grealish and Wolves have struggled to score against everyone without Raul Jimenez.
I've been burned by Brighton the last few matches because they've become incompetent at scoring. They're controlling matches, but they've scored twice in their last four and have lost their last two despite having an expected goal total more than two goals above both Crystal Palace and West Brom. As long as they don't change their strategy, this is a great spot for both teams not to score at -107. Brighton are dominating possession and not scoring, while Leicester City are struggling to score without James Maddison. That's a great combination for a 1-0 result either way or a scoreless draw (+800).
The Liverpool respect continues, and while the return of Diogo Jota will be a boost, I'm not sure they should be -375 favorites against Fulham. Liverpool have scored once in their last five home matches, losing their last four, while Fulham have taken points in each of their last five and grabbed a point when these teams met in December. Liverpool controlled possession, but that didn't stop Fulham from getting five shots on target and an equal amount of action in front of net. Unless Liverpool turn into a new team following their midweek match against Chelsea, getting Fulham +1 at +185 may be my favorite bet of the weekend. Given how these teams have played of late, the number doesn't make sense. A Fulham draw no bet is +850 and win or draw is +275. Getting a draw no bet at that number against a team that recently lost at home to Burnley, Brighton and Everton is a steal.
There are some big teams involved the rest of the weekend, but there aren't a ton of advantages in the odds. It's not my favorite matchup, but Man City is +185 to win to nil in the Manchester derby. If you want to do the same for Tottenham against Crystal Palace, it's +135. I'd say the same for Chelsea, but Everton seem to play all of the top teams tightly and I don't want to fall into Chelsea's trap again. If anything, playing the under in Chelsea matches has become a good source of income and under 2.5 goals is -108 in this match.
Manchester United win to nil against Crystal Palace +133
Fulham and Tottenham under 2.5 goals -125
Arsenal win to nil against Burnley +175
Villa and Wolves both to not score -109
Brighton and Leicester both to not score -107
Fulham +1 against Liverpool +185
Tottenham win to nil against Crystal Palace +135
Parlay: Everything I wrote about above. Free winner.