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Rounding Third: Profar's Price

Jeff Erickson

Jeff Erickson

Jeff Erickson is a co-founder of RotoWire.com and the only two-time winner of Baseball Writer of the Year from the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. He roots for the Reds, Bengals, Red Wings, Pacers and Northwestern University (the real NU).

Profar's Price

We asked this question last year with Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, but it's time to ask it again this year for Manny Machado and Jurickson Profar. Can you possibly get full value for one of these elite young hitters in a salary-based keeper or dynasty league, where the player's salary is so prohibitively low? Trout was obviously the extreme example - not only was he a tremendous keeper target, but he was also the most valuable fantasy commodity in the game. Say as an example that what he was doing last year was worth $55 in the RotoWire 18-team Staff Keeper League. I had him at $3, in the first year of his contract, and would be at $3 in his second year, before I had to make a decision on how many years to extend him, at $5 for every extra year on top of his third season. Basically, he's a 6-8 year player at that point, where you're almost guaranteed a sick profit for the first 4-5 years, perhaps for the duration of that deal. Just looking at year 1, you have a $52 profit - and with an 18-team league, the spot has value too, meaning that just getting two players that earn a combined $55 don't equal what Trout is doing. So just for that first year, you'd need to get at least $60 in production, and that's ignoring future value. Conservatively, you'd need to get at least $150 in value to even think about trading him.

But wait, that's not all. Because in the RotoWire Staff League and in many other leagues, there's an in-season salary cap. So you can't merely just add on three high-priced guys to try to contend for the current season, as that in many cases would put you over the cap, force you to trade away salary (and production) of your own, or at best tie your hands from making any other moves. So then you need to not only find that $150 in production, but you need to find it from players that are also performing well above their contract price and in many cases have great (not merely acceptable or good) keeper value in their own right. You basically have to convince that punting team to grab for the brass ring to get the uber-keeper while disposing of his other keeper assets. And how many such teams like that exist? They have to be a team that's out of the race, yet has high-performing stars that have great contracts. It's like trying to find a unicorn.

Moving on to this year's examples, Manny Machado and Jurickson Profar might not reach that extreme of Mike Trout or Bryce Harper, but they're still prohibitively valuable. I own Profar in the XFL, which is a 15-team expert league where we can keep up to 15 players each year - with the twist that minor leaguers count as part of that 15, and they have a slower salary acceleration. Players you purchase in the auction, pick up on waivers, or major leaguers that you acquire in the reserve portion of the draft go up $5 every year, but minor leaguers go up only $3 a pop. So this year, Profar is a $1 player, and next year he'll be a $4 player. Theoretically, I'll be able to keep him for 7-to-10 years in this format.

However, I took over a franchise in this league three years ago, turning them into a possible contender after they were a last place team when I grabbed them. This is very much a "flags fly forever" type of season if I want it to be. I'm in fourth place, with two very clear categories to improve - stolen bases and wins. In addition to Profar, I have some other sick prospects - Billy Hamilton, Travis d'Arnaud, Zack Wheeler, Kevin Gausman, Danny Hultzen and Yasmani Grandal as a "+3" in his second year. The inventory to trade is certainly there. Of course, most of the offers I'm getting involve Profar, including one that could net me Carlos Gonzalez, CC Sabathia and another difference-maker. But I can't shake the feeling that I'll forever regret dealing Profar. So far no trade has been made - stay tuned.

Maximizing Bullpen Usage

You may have seen me griping about this on Twitter (@Jeff_Erickson), but the Reds have lost 22 games this year - 10 by the bullpen. Many of those losses have come courtesy of their lesser relievers pitching in tight situations, with Aroldis Chapman not in there merely because it's a non-save situation. That's exactly what happened Sunday. First, Jonathan Broxton was pitching the eighth inning and had put a runner on with two outs, facing lefty Garrett Jones. Jones put one into the river, tying the game. I can see sticking with Broxton to a point. Theoretically he's there to pitch the eighth inning as their second-best reliever (at least, by rank on the depth chart, if not by performance). They paid him to be there - though that contract he got is fairly ridiculous.

But even dumber was seeing Alfredo Simon still in there in the 11th inning, in his third inning of work, with two runners on-base, facing a left-hander. How can you not use Chapman in that situation? Chapman had pitched the night before, but before that not after Monday. He was fresh enough, and the situation - a tie game in extra innings, against a competing division rival (i.e., not the Cubs or Brewers) - dictated that this game had a little extra meaning. Managers so often get tied into the save rule box that they lose sight of how high-leverage a tie game really is.

A nice epitaph on the day was in San Diego, as the Blue Jays used their closer, Casey Janssen, in a tie game in the 10th inning. He held the line, the Jays scored three runs in the 11th, and Aaron Loup was able to courageously protect a three-run lead despite not being a proven closer. How he managed, we'll never know.

NFBC Main Event

Team Player Bid Runner-Up
|| Zefurs Lv.1 || Michael Wacha (SP) 232 206
deadmoney2 Nick Franklin (2B) 88 67
Yucca Valley Bombers Mark Ellis (2B) 85 12
Valdespin #1 fan Jeremy Guthrie (SP) 54
deadmoney2 Corey Kluber (SP) 38 1
deadmoney2 Chris Parmelee (RF) 38 27
El Scorchos Brandon Barnes (RF) 25
Vegas Bandit Pedro Florimon (SS) 19 1
Valdespin #1 fan Justin Grimm (SP) 18 1
|| Zefurs Lv.1 || Jordan Lyles (SP) 16
Low Talkers Danny Espinosa (2B) 14
SportsDraftDaily.com Tim Federowicz (C) 13
Pollos Hermanos Brian Dozier (2B) 12 3
deadmoney2 Jeremy Hefner (SP) 12 8
And I'll Go Mine Xavier Paul (LF) 8
Professional Joaquin Benoit (MR) 8 3
El Scorchos Carter Capps (MR) 5
El Scorchos Joe Saunders (SP) 5
And I'll Go Mine Yan Gomes (C) 3
Four Headed Monster Erasmo Ramirez (SP) 3 2
Four Headed Monster Luis Valbuena (3B) 3
|| Zefurs Lv.1 || Jose Iglesias (SS) 2
Valdespin #1 fan Luis Mendoza (SP) 2
Big Alameda Machine Roger Bernadina (CF) 1
SportsDraftDaily.com David Adams (3B) 1
SportsDraftDaily.com Robbie Erlin (MR) 1


RFBOC

Team Player Bid Runner-Up
Smoke Show 317(2) Nick Franklin (2B) 165 45
Chris Liss Rocks Michael Wacha (SP) 151 139
Kostas Krew Rex Brothers (MR) 101 28
Kostas Krew Bartolo Colon (SP) 44 15
Reach Marcell Ozuna (RF) 35 28
Reach Daniel Nava (LF) 33 12
Team 317 Jeff Locke (SP) 31 24
Reach Luke Gregerson (MR) 30 11
Beer & Chicken-VI Dan Straily (SP) 29 11
Kostas Krew Jerome Williams (SP) 23
Beer & Chicken-VI Ike Davis (1B) 19 15
Team 317 Matt Joyce (RF) 15 5
Deep Fried Trout Ubaldo Jimenez (SP) 15 4
Big Wave Surfer Daniel Hudson (SP) 12
Team 317 Matt Dominguez (3B) 12 2
Big Wave Surfer David Murphy (LF) 11 3
Del Mar Leonys Martin (CF) 9
Smoke Show 317(2) Ted Lilly (SP) 7
Fast Ball Michael Pineda (SP) 3
Del Mar Brian Dozier (2B) 2
Reach Yan Gomes (C) 2
Del Mar Joe Saunders (SP) 1
RoundTrippers! Edinson Volquez (SP) 1
RoundTrippers! Jason Hammel (SP) 1
Reach Roberto Hernandez (SP) 1
El Scorchos A.J. Pollock (CF) 1
El Scorchos Corey Kluber (SP) 1
El Scorchos Carter Capps (MR) 1
Fast Ball Zack Cozart (SS) 1



AL Tout Wars

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Joe Sheehan: pur HAmbriz Hou 12
Mike Siano: pur JIglesias Bos 6
Matthew Berry: pur LMendoza KC 3
Matthew Berry: pur ERamirez Sea 3
Mike Siano: pur FGarcia Bal 2
Mike Siano: pur SKelley NYY 1
Jeff Erickson: pur SDeduno Min 1
Rob Leibowitz: pur GGreen Oak 1
Matthew Berry: pur EnChavez Sea 1
Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton: pur DLough KC 1
Steve Moyer: pur FMorales Bos 0
Mike Siano: pur BGomes TB 0
Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton: pur ALiddi Sea 0

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NL LABR

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Mon Jun 03 12:01 AM ET: Omar Quintanilla awarded to Colton & The Wolfman for $6.
Mon Jun 03 12:01 AM ET: Roger Bernadina awarded to USA TODAY Sports for $5.
Mon Jun 03 12:01 AM ET: Failed bids for Roger Bernadina: $4, $4.
Mon Jun 03 12:01 AM ET: Scott Van Slyke awarded to NFBC/Stats, Inc. for $4.
Mon Jun 03 12:01 AM ET: Failed bids for Scott Van Slyke: $3.
Mon Jun 03 12:01 AM ET: Tyler Cloyd awarded to RotoWire for $2.
Mon Jun 03 12:01 AM ET: Wil Nieves awarded to Baseball HQ for $2.
Mon Jun 03 12:01 AM ET: Brandon Kintzler awarded to Sandlot Shrink for $2.
Mon Jun 03 12:01 AM ET: Dale Thayer awarded to ESPN - Ravitz for $1.
Mon Jun 03 12:01 AM ET: Failed bids for Dale Thayer: $1, $1.
Mon Jun 03 12:01 AM ET: Jeremy Hefner awarded to DerekCarty.com for $1.
Mon Jun 03 12:01 AM ET: Failed bids for Jeremy Hefner: $1.
Mon Jun 03 12:01 AM ET: Luis Cruz awarded to Colton & The Wolfman for $1.
Mon Jun 03 12:01 AM ET: Nathan Karns awarded to Colton & The Wolfman for $1.
Mon Jun 03 12:01 AM ET: Derrick Robinson awarded to Sandlot Shrink for $1.

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RotoWire Staff League

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Next Stop Pottersville: Pick up Hector Ambriz ($1), drop Garrett Richards
Liss and Shoe's Dynasty: Pick up Brandon Barnes ($3), drop Jimmy Paredes
(Casale Industries: $1)
(Tuffy's Goats: $1)
(Tuffy's Goats: $1)
(Tuffy's Goats: $1)
Frozen Ropes: Pick up Jason Bay ($5), drop Robbie Grossman
(The Bros McKeown: $4)
(Casale Industries: $1)
(Tuffy's Goats: $1)
Next Stop Pottersville: Pick up Carter Capps ($1), drop John Gast
(Next Stop Pottersville: $1)
(Liss and Shoe's Dynasty: $1)
High-A West Madison: Pick up Tyler Cloyd ($1), drop Brandon Maurer
Liss and Shoe's Dynasty: Pick up Robert Coello ($3), drop Vidal Nuno
High-A West Madison: Pick up Chris Coghlan ($3), drop Brett Myers
(Tuffy's Goats: $1)
(Tuffy's Goats: $1)
(Liss and Shoe's Dynasty: $1)
Casale Industries: Pick up Jesse Crain ($1), drop Ryan Raburn
Erickson: Pick up Samuel Deduno ($3), drop Rob Brantly
(Liss and Shoe's Dynasty: $1)
Tuffy's Goats: Pick up Nate Freiman ($1), drop Dee Gordon
(Tuffy's Goats: $1)
(Tuffy's Goats: $1)
(Liss and Shoe's Dynasty: $1)
Casale Industries: Pick up Jose Iglesias ($1), drop Clint Barmes
Anderson: Pick up Elliot Johnson ($3), drop Jordan Pacheco
The Bros McKeown: Pick up Tyler Lyons ($5), drop Duane Below
(Erickson: $3)
Tuffy's Goats: Pick up Brian Matusz ($1), drop Ryan Vogelsong
(Next Stop Pottersville: $1)
(Tuffy's Goats: $1)
(Tuffy's Goats: $1)
The Bros McKeown: Pick up A.J. Pollock ($5), drop Steve Lombardozzi
(Liss and Shoe's Dynasty: $3)
(Next Stop Pottersville: $3)
(Casale Industries: $1)
Casale Industries: Pick up Scott Van Slyke ($1), drop Jake McGee
(Tuffy's Goats: $1)
(Tuffy's Goats: $1)
(Tuffy's Goats: $1)
Tuffy's Goats: Pick up Alex Wood ($1), drop Juan Francisco
(Tuffy's Goats: $1)

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Schedule Notes

- Three teams have the infernal five-game week: Cubs, Giants and Blue Jays - the last two of which face off against each other on Tuesday and Wednesday. Given the Jays' pitching woes, that's actually a pretty big break for them. But it's annoying for those of us that may or may not have multiple shares of Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Melky Cabrera.

- Seven-game weeks: Braves, Diamondbacks, White Sox, Rockies, Astros, Dodgers, Brewers, Yankees, A's, Phillies, Padres, Mariners and Cardinals.

- Interleague matchups: A's @ Brewers (the time crunch in the outfield/DH slots gets even tighter for the A's); Cubs @ Angels (just two games, one lefty, one righty - so not too many Cubs beneficiaries here); Blue Jays @ Giants (will we see more of Encarnacion at 3B?); and Twins @ Nats (with Ross Detwiler out and the Gio Gonzalez not on their track, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau might be safe).

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