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Collette Calls: The Closer Matrix

Jason Collette

Jason Collette

Jason has been helping fantasy owners since 1999 at RotoJunkie, Fanball, Baseball Prospectus and now here at RotoWire. He covers the Tampa Bay Rays at theprocessreport.net. You can hear Jason weekly on many of the Sirius/XM Fantasy channel offerings throughout the season as well as on the Towers of Power Baseball Hour Podcast on iTunes. He was selected as the Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year by FSWA in 2013.

For the past three seasons, I have chased my own tail in trying to predict how closers will perform each season.

The premise of the strategy is simple: closers are born to fail. Year after year, a noticeable percentage of ninth-inning men get hurt or lose their jobs. We know from work originally done by Ron Shandler at BaseballHQ that roughly 30% of closers lose their job within the season and saves come out of the woodwork. Edward Mujica, Kevin Gregg, Jim Henderson, Joaquin Benoit, Mark Melancon, Rex Brothers, Bobby Parnell, Danny Farquhar, and Heath Bell each saved 15 games without opening the season as the closer and nearly all of them were undrafted in mixed league formats. 2013 simply echoed 2010 when I began the strategy after reviewing the To

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