Survivor: Surviving Week 1 - With Video

This article is part of our Survivor series.

This is always my least favorite column of the year - not Survivor - that's probably my favorite, but Survivor Week 1. Not much good can come of getting through (it's hard to win your pool in a single week), and a lot of bad can happen like when I picked the Steelers last year. (That's the only time in 14 years I've ever lost in Week 1, and while I knew it would happen eventually and am fine with that percentage, I certainly don't want to start a streak).

Before we look at the actual slate, it's worth going over some general principles about winning survivor pools. Some years, pools are won in Week 8. In others, they're won in Week 15. The goal therefore isn't to make it to Week 12, for example, because in a year with few major upsets, there will still be a lot of teams remaining. The goal, instead, is to have 100 percent of your "pool equity".

What is "pool equity"? It's the amount of money/percentage of the overall prize your entry is worth. For example, if you're in a 100-person pool with an entry fee of $10, your current pool equity is $10 and one percent of the total amount of the pool ($1000). The goal then isn't to get to a particular week, it's to get your share equal to $1000 or 100 percent, whether that happens in Week 2 or Week 17.

Accordingly, we will evaluate the choices based on the amount of pool equity you'd expect to be left with the following week. This will factor in the likelihood your team loses, leaving you with zero equity and also what happens if they win and other teams win or lose. Because whether the team you choose wins is only part of the equation. The other part is how did the other chosen teams do, and how many people chose each of them?

To illustrate, let's take an extreme example. Let's say you were choosing between the Eagles and Jaguars this week (I realize no one would consider the Jaguars, but for the sake of argument, let's assume those were your only two choices.) Vegas has the Eagles as an 85/15 favorite to win that game. So obviously you'd choose the Eagles.

But what if you learned the other 99 people in your pool were also choosing the Eagles? That would leave you with a choice between the following expected outcomes: (1) Take the Eagles, and have a 100 percent chance of being alive in Week 2, but with a one-percent chance to win the entire pool (You're alive but so are 99 other people); or (2) Take the Jaguars, and have a 15-percent chance of being alive in Week 2 and a 15-percent chance to win the pool. The answer is pretty obvious to me - I'd much rather increase my pool equity to $150 (15 percent * 1000) than keep it at $10, even though most likely I'd be done in Week 2.

Unless your pool has a prize for everyone that makes it to Week 10 or some other strange quirk, it doesn't matter when you lose. The goal is pool equity, not longevity. In fact, when you build up enough pool equity, say 25 percent, it's often enough to trigger a split of the winnings.

So keep that in mind as you read this column. If you would rather simply maximize your chances to survive the current week than increase pool equity, take the team you think is most likely to win (I have Vegas' percentages and my own percentages for that in the write-up below.) But, as I said, my ultimate recommendation is going to take into account that *and* the number of people likely to take a particular team (for that we use "polling" data from Officefootballpools.com.) The result of those two variables is expected pool equity.

Okay, that out of the way, let's take a look at this week's slate:

According to Vegas, the Eagles easily have the best chance to win at nearly 85 percent. But roughly 42 percent of pools are on them. That means in our hypothetical 100-person pool, if the Eagles were to lose, there would be only 58 people left (and fewer actually because they won't be the only team to lose this week). If you took the Bears, for example, and they won while the Eagles lost, then there would be 48 people left once you account for not only the Eagles backers going down, but also the expected number of other teams' backers losing as well.

That means if you were choosing between the Bears and Eagles, you'd consider the following:

Bears-win/Eagles lose = 48 people remaining = $1000/48 = $20.83 of equity. If both win, or both lose, it doesn't matter which you choose. If the Eagles win, and the Bears lose, there would be 20 people who lost with the Bears plus another 10 from other teams, so there would be 70 remaining. That leaves you with $1000/70 or $14.29 in equity.

The question then is whether the ratio of $20.83 to $14.29 is bigger than the ratio of Eagles win/Bears lose to Bears win/Eagles lose. Let's figure that out:

The Eagles win/Bears lose is 85 percent * 27 percent = 23 percent. The Bears win/Eagles lose is 73 percent * 15 percent = 10.1 percent. It's pretty clear that 23:10 is a bigger ratio than 20.83 to 14.29. That means even though the payout for taking the Bears is significantly better should things break your way, it doesn't compensate you for the decreased likelihood of it happening. Basically, the payout in taking the Bears over the Eagles doesn't justify the risk - at least according to the Vegas odds and the polling data.

But let's set aside the Bears as they aren't really the toughest competition to the Eagles. That would be the Broncos who are only 4.1 percent owned and 76 percent to win. If the Broncos won and the Eagles lost, there would be only be 44 people left for $22.73 ($1000/44) in equity. If the Eagles won and the Broncos lost, only four people would go down with Denver and an additional 15 from other teams. So there would be 81 people left, giving you $12.35 in equity. So picking Denver over Philadelphia gives you a 22.73/12.35 advantage in payout should the games go your way. Is that worth it?

The odds of an Eagles win/Broncos loss are 85%*24% = 20.4 percent. The odds of a Broncos win/Eagles loss are 76%*15% = 11.4 percent. So let's compare the risk to the reward: 20.4/11.4 = 1.79. But 22.73/12.35 = 1.84! In this case, the payout from taking Denver slightly exceeds the extra risk.

Of course, when you're dealing with results this close, it's really a coin flip, and keep in mind I rounded the percentages to win (the Eagles are slightly under 85, while the Broncos are slightly over 76.) Moreover, those percentages are derived from an average of five different Vegas money lines which move throughout the week, too.

Bottom line, I can see a strong case for going with the Eagles or Broncos here. The big advantage to the Broncos is I can't imagine too many pools being heavy on them because everyone will want to save them for later, whereas I can imagine plenty of pools where 50 or even 55 percent choose to play it "safe" with the Eagles. As such, I'm going to split my first-week entries in various pools between the two teams.

For more discussion on this particular strategy, see here:

(Keep in mind when we recorded this on Tuesday, only 38 percent were on the Eagles, so they were an easier call.)

My Picks

1. Philadelphia Eagles

I have them in a virtual tie with the Broncos, but there are two considerations here: (1) if you have an edge because you're using pool equity considerations, then, all things being roughly equal, you might want to go with the safer choice for now and exploit your edge more later; and (2) There is the matter of enjoying your pool for longer. Now, the Eagles are by no means assured a win here - Jacksonville played much better down the stretch, and its head coach Gus Bradley was the architect of the Seahawks defense. Still, the Eagles are at home and should handle them fairly easily. I give Philly an 85 percent chance to win this game.

2. Denver Broncos

Don't worry about saving Denver for later - even if you have them available, they might be a bad play due to their popularity. Moreover, this game is riskier because the Colts offense is dangerous, and Andrew Luck is not a quarterback you want to fade if the game is close. Still, Indy's defense is missing its best pass rusher, Robert Mathis, and Denver returns Pro Bowl tackle Ryan Clady, and added two big defensive pieces in DeMarcus Ware and Aqib Talib. I give the Broncos a 76 percent chance to win this game.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers

While Cleveland might be better defensively at this point, the quarterback advantage for the Steelers here is enormous, especially with the Browns likely missing their top wideout. Between that and the home-field advantage, I give the Steelers a 73 percent chance to win this game.

4. New York Jets

The Jets are at home against a rookie QB making his first career start. I know their secondary has been a disaster this summer, but Rex Ryan's blitzes should cause problems for Derek Carr. I give the Jets a 71 percent chance to win this game.

Notable Omissions:

Chicago Bears - I think the Bills are solid defensively, and their offense might not be as bad as advertised in the preseason. The Bears defense is bad, and Jay Cutler is mistake prone.