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According to the Data: Predicting Increases and Declines in Running Back YPC for 2013

Jonathan Bales

Jonathan Bales

Jonathan Bales is the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series. In addition to RotoWire, Jonathan also provides content to the New York Times, Dallas Morning News, DallasCowboys.com, and NBC.

Predicting Increases, Declines in Running Back YPC in 2013

The running back position is extremely dependent on team context. Running back play will forever be tied to offensive line talent; one could probably argue the offensive line is more responsible for a running back's rushing yards than the back himself. There's all kinds of evidence of this, such as that running backs drafted in the late rounds have historically averaged slightly more YPC than those drafted in the first two rounds. That's an amazing stat; we know NFL teams aren't completely missing on running back talent, so a good portion of the late-round running back success must be due to factors outside of the running back's control.

Because a running back's talent accounts for only a small part of his output, we see stats like YPC fluctuate quite a bit from year to year. On average, only around 40 percent of a running back's YPC carries over from season to season, with the rest regressing towar

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