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According to the Data: Comparing Expert PPR Rankings to ADP

Jonathan Bales

Jonathan Bales

Jonathan Bales is the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series. In addition to RotoWire, Jonathan also provides content to the New York Times, Dallas Morning News, DallasCowboys.com, and NBC.

Comparing Expert PPR Rankings to ADP

I'm a big believer in the power of aggregate rankings. In taking the average (or median) of independently-generated expert opinions - known as "wisdom of the crowds" - you can factor out individual biases (hopefully) to get a more accurate picture of reality.

And composite rankings have proven to be really accurate in the past. If you have a player ranked far from the expert consensus, you really need to assess your decision for any potential faults. You don't need to conform for the sake of conformity, but if a bunch of people disagree with your projection for a particular player, you need to be more confident in that projection than normal to maintain your ranking.

I have running back Marshawn Lynch ranked at No. 37 overall in PPR leagues, for example - way below his current ADP of No. 11 overall. There are all kinds of reasons I foresee a down year for Lynch - I'm really confident in my assessment of him -

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