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According to the Data: Running Back Scarcity

Jonathan Bales

Jonathan Bales

Jonathan Bales is the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series. In addition to RotoWire, Jonathan also provides content to the New York Times, Dallas Morning News, DallasCowboys.com, and NBC.

2013 and Historic RB Scarcity

Prior to the start of the season, I published an article on why history suggests we should wait on quarterbacks, with the sensational "Year of the Quarterback" in 2011 being an outlying season. This was why I arrived at that conclusion:



In 2009, 2010, and 2012, the drop from the fifth-rated quarterback to the 12th-rated quarterback wasn't a massive one. Not so in 2011, when the fifth-rated quarterback scored far more points than the No. 12 passer - more so than ever before.

That led to the early-quarterback strategy to which I personally fell victim last season. There are other benefits to going with a quarterback early, of course - namely that you can be relatively certain that particular player will produce at an elite level - but the scarcity just isn't what was represented in 2011.


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