Surviving Week 10
Last week we advised people to fade the Cowboys not because we thought they'd lose but because the payout would be huge if they did. Had Leslie Frazier managed a better end game, it might have happened. Surprisingly though, even the Seahawks nearly lost, and Aaron Rodgers
' injury took the Packers down. The Saints also lost, and so the Panthers and Pats were the only teams to get through without significant drama. Okay - let's take a look at this week's slate:
|Team ||Opponent ||%Taken ||Vegas ML** ||Vegas Odds
|TITANS ||Jaguars ||68.00% ||600 ||85.71
|COLTS ||Rams ||12.10% ||400 ||80.00
|GIANTS ||Raiders ||11.70% ||300 ||75.00
|49ERS ||Panthers ||1.60% ||240 ||70.59
|SAINTS ||Cowboys ||1.60% ||275 ||73.33
|Broncos ||CHARGERS ||1.20% ||285 ||74.03
|STEELERS ||Bills ||1.00% ||155 ||60.78
|Redskins ||VIKINGS ||0.90% ||130 ||56.52
Home team in CAPS
** Average of the two moneylines
The Titans are this week's Cowboys - a strong favorite that's likely to win but that you almost have to fade given the huge number of people on them. That makes the Colts and Giants the top two teams in that order, and that's apparent without doing the precise math.
1. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts should be able to handle the Kellen-Clemens-led Rams at home, but the Rams defensive line can get to Andrew Luck
, and Zac Stacy
has been one of the better backs in the league of late. I give the Colts an 80 percent chance to win this game.
2. New York Giants
The Giants own two wins - over the Matt Barkley
-led Eagles and the Josh Freeman
-led Vikings, so this is by no means a slam dunk. But the Raiders are below average on both sides of the ball, and the Giants defense has been playing very well of late. I give them a 77 percent chance to win this game.
3. New Orleans Saints
Going into New York was a tough set-up last week, but at home, the Saints should be able to light up the Cowboys defense and play enough defense to slow Dallas down somewhat. I give the Saints a 73 percent chance to win this game.
4. San Francisco 49ers
The Panthers are a tough opponent, but San Francisco is at home and coming off a bye. Moreover, a lot of Carolina's damage has been done against league doormats like the Vikings, Rams, Giants, Bucs and Falcons. I give the Niners a 72 percent chance to win this game.
5. Denver Broncos
I don't like this spot for Denver - on the road against a division rival with upside, but the Broncos are coming off a bye, have Von Miller
back and are such a well-oiled machine they can overcome a lot of bad bounces. I give Denver a 70 percent chance to win this game.
- With 68 percent of pools on them, the payout should they lose is too big to pass up. I give them an 83 percent chance to win this game.