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According to the Data: How to Predict a WR Breakout

Jonathan Bales

Jonathan Bales

Jonathan Bales is the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series. In addition to RotoWire, Jonathan also provides content to the New York Times, Dallas Morning News,, and NBC.

How to Predict a WR Breakout

One of my favorite aspects of playing and writing about fantasy football is disproving conventional wisdom. I've done that with "truisms" such as running backs break down after X touches and rookie wide receivers make for high-upside selections.

When I'm brainstorming ideas for articles, I tend to think about arguments I believe to be true, but for which I don't actually have any data, then research them to see if they hold water. I did that recently with the idea that running backs need lots of carries to produce, which turned out to indeed be true.

Well, I've often wondered how much targets affect wide receivers. It's obvious more targets is better, but to what degree? My initial hunch was because there

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